Bund, Tbond of the Hot Hand fine del Capitalismo(vm98)

Treasuries Fall as December Job Growth Rises More Than Forecast

By Annie Pinkert

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell after a government report showed the economy added more jobs in December than economists forecast.

Yields on the benchmark 10-year note rose as evidence of strength in the labor market may reduce chances the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this quarter.

``It's going to set in place some downward momentum in bonds,'' said Michael Franzese, head of Treasury trading for Salt Lake City-based Zions First National Bank before the report. ``It should get some volatility back into the market; it's going to be a good trading day.''

The 10-year note's yield rose 7 basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 4.68 percent at 8:33 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price of the 4 5/8 percent note due November 2016 fell 18/32, or $5.63 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 19/32. Bond yield moves inversely to price.

Employers in the U.S. added a greater-than-expected 167,000 workers to payrolls in December and incomes grew by the most in eight months, adding to evidence the economy is weathering a slump in housing and manufacturing.

The gain in employment followed a 154,000 rise in November that was larger than previously estimated, the Labor Department reported today. The jobless rate held at 4.5 percent.

Economists earlier this week forecast 115,000 new jobs in December, according to a Bloomberg survey, but reduced their predictions after ADP Employer Services on Jan. 3 said U.S. companies shed 40,000 positions last month, the first loss of jobs since April 2003.

Traders and investors expected U.S. employers added 71,400 non-farm workers in December, according to an auction of economic derivatives by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

The Fed raised its overnight lending rate between banks a quarter-percentage point at each of its meetings from June 2004 to June 2006. Policy makers left the rate unchanged at 5.25 percent at four meetings since then, saying the increases were still working their way through the economy.

Fed policy makers next meet Jan. 31 and are expected to hold the benchmark lending rate steady at 5.25 percent, according to all 68 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
 
questo è quello che dicevo pimco pallino prima del dato

Pimco's Gross Says Fed Will Slash Rates to 4.25%

By Elizabeth Stanton and Chris Cooper

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, says the Federal Reserve will lower its benchmark interest rate by a percentage point to 4.25 percent this year to support economic growth.

The Fed will start cutting its target for the overnight lending rate between banks in the first half as the economy slows, he said. The nominal growth rate, unadjusted for inflation, was 3.8 percent during the third quarter, compared with 5.9 percent in the second quarter.

``Slower economic growth, certainly slower nominal growth, ultimately forces the Fed to lower'' the cost of funds, Gross, chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in an interview. The rate may be cut to ``below the nominal growth rate in order to re-stimulate assets and re-stimulate productive growth in the economy.''

Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields will fall to about 4.50 percent, Gross wrote in a report published on his firm's Web site yesterday. The 10-year yield, 4.60 percent at 5:08 p.m. in Tokyo, has risen in the past two years.

The Newport Beach, California-based firm, a unit of Munich- based Allianz SE, oversees $642 billion, including the $100 billion Pimco Total Return Fund.

So-called nominal growth in U.S. gross domestic product of 4 percent ``is not enough to support an asset-based economy which has built-in costs of debt averaging 5 percent plus,'' Gross wrote in the report.

With a decline to 4.50 percent yield at year-end the 10-year note would return about 5.4 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It would be the biggest gain since it returned about 15 percent in 2002, according to index data compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co.

GDP and Fed

On three occasions in the past 15 years when the growth rate of nominal GDP dropped at least a percentage point below the Fed's benchmark, stock prices or housing prices or both declined, and the central bank subsequently lowered the target to at least a percentage point below the growth rate to blunt the damage to the economy, according to Gross.

The median price of an existing home fell from a year earlier in November, the fourth consecutive monthly drop.

The Fed raised its target for the federal funds rate in quarter-point increments at 17 straight meetings from June 2004 to June 2006. Gross underestimated how much the Fed would raise rates in the past two years and when it would stop. In June 2005, he predicted the increases would stop at 3.5 percent. In May, he predicted 5 percent was the limit.

Fund Holdings

Gross has boosted the Total Return Fund's holdings of debt maturing in three years or less, which typically benefit most from Fed rate cuts.

Cash equivalents including debt maturing in less than a year accounted for 47 percent of its interest-rate risk as of Nov. 30, the firm said on its Web site. That is the biggest share the fund has reported in six years of data.

Debt maturing in one to three years accounted for 24 percent of the fund's interest-rate risk, or duration, up from 19 percent in October and the most since August 2005.

Gross's fund advanced 4 percent last year, outperforming 55 percent of its competitors, according to Morningstar. It returned 5.65 percent on average in each of the past five years, beating 89 percent of its peers.
 
f4f ha scritto:
rubato a Tontolina, ecco un divertente parallelo storico
Speciale John Law
http://michelespallino.blogspot.com/2006/09/speciale-john-law.html

.....................................
Ciò che di norma succede è che di tanto in tanto un ondata di ottimismo irrazionale si diffonde nel mondo. Le persone credono di vivere l'inizio di una nuova era che porterà inimmaginabili ricchezze e prosperità a tutti. Ondate di nuovi paradigmi vengono associate alle nuove scoperte o all'apertura di nuovi territori, all'applicazione di nuove invenzioni, alla crescita dei prezzi di un importante materia prima, ai trattati di pace od a forti performance economcihe.
Una caratteristica ricorrente, è che di norma ciò avviene non all'inizio di un era di prosperità, bensì piuttosto alla fine di un periodo di prosperità; ed inoltre che sempre viene in compagnia di qualche forma di corsa maniacale verso gli investimenti........
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in questi giorni si può persino comprare ettari di terreno lunare
http://www.google.it/search?hl=it&q=comprare+la+luna&btnG=Cerca+con+Google&meta=
:eek:
 
Cosi, tanto per avere la soddisfazione di saperlo (ci ho perso dei bei soldi) che scusa si dà alla discesa repentina delle 17:05 ? :rolleyes:
 
f4f ha scritto:
2 rovinare il uikken a te e a me


Non fa niente . . . consolatevi . .così . . .



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