Bund, Tbond of the Hot Hand fine del Capitalismo(vm98)
- Creatore Discussione dan24
- Data di Inizio
quicksilver
Forumer storico
giomf ha scritto:
Gionf ........ E' BRUTTA!
... è una piccoletta con la faccia da strega e le ghiandole mammarie impazzite, pietàaaa ....
quicksilver
Forumer storico
giomf ha scritto:
Si
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Possibile riduzione della liquidità in area Yen, tentativo di ridurre la speculazione sulla Cina, forza del dollaro e riduzione dei carry.
Conseguente storno dei mercati correlati.
Ma al momento lo storno sembra abbastanza routinario sebbene andranno verificati i livelli tecnici di supporto e i livelli di inversione del ratio intermarket.
Per lo spoore importante l'area 1400 circa cash per il breve e 1360 per il medio.
1. Employment Report
Following the release of the ADP employment data earlier this week, and the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index yesterday, the consensus expectations for nonfarm payrolls heading into this morning’s release seemed to be steadily ratcheting down by the minute. Worry warts. It needn't have been.
The change in nonfarm payrolls for December came in at 167,000 versus earlier consensus expectations of 100,000.
By this morning, just before the release, those expectations had largely fallen into the 80,000 range thanks to a bizarre print earlier this week courtesy of the ADP jobs report.
Further suggesting a potentially weak print, yesterday the ISM reported that its Manufacturing Employment Index fell 1.6% to 49.2.
And just like that, Bob's your uncle, the dollar crosses 84.50 and the early spring Fed rate cut hope disappears.
2. Smells Like Yen Spirit
"Load up on guns, bring your friends, it's fun to lose and to pretend"... the carry trade will never end. But you know what? There's apparently a chance, a small chance, the Bank of Japan will move ahead with plans to raise interest rates as soon as this month.
According to Bloomberg, newspaper reports from Japan suggested the Bank of Japan may raise borrowing costs this month, sooner than many expected.
The Nikkei English News on Jan. 3 quoted a BOJ official as saying higher rates would help sustain economic expansion, this two days after the Yomiuri newspaper said the bank may act as early as this month, Bloomberg said.
The BOJ has left rates unchanged at 0.25 percent since they were raised in July for the first time in nearly six years.
Recent economic data from Japan has opened the door to speculation (literally) that the BoJ may be forced to wait until this spring to try and raise rates again.
The yen fell 1.1% against the dollar last year and investors took great advantage of Japan's low interest rates to borrow in Yen and buy foreign assets, the so-called yen carry trade.
3. China Makes Like Archie Bell and the Drells and Does the Tighten Up
China's central bank raised the reserve requirement for commercial banks in a bid to stem a rising tide of liquidity in the banking system. In plain English, they "tightened up" to slow lending.
A bank's reserve requirement is the percentage of deposits they need to keep in hand, in this case deposited with the People's Bank of China.
Otherwise, the remainder of deposits above the reserve requirement may be loaned out to spur economic activity.
"Because of the continuous trade surplus there is a new increase in the already excessive liquidity in the banking system, (and) the pressure for lending to expand is relatively big," the central bank said in a statement on its website.
China is basically concerned about too much money flowing into the country and its financial system from overseas, pushing up domestic stocks, creating too much demand for credit, and putting upward pressure on the yuan.
This leads us to today's Number Four...
4. Same Difference?
So, what's the big deal, then? Doesn't this mean China is edging closer to what the U.S. would like - a rising currency - whether they like it or not?
The U.S. is happy to see the yuan rise, of course, and the widespread belief in this country is that China's estimated $1 trillion in reserves is due almost exclusively to China's $156 billion USD trade surplus thanks to a concerted effort to hold down the value of the yuan.
In Washington, the belief is that the trade deficit we are carrying with China has simply resulted in the U.S. exporting jobs.
A loss of jobs equals a loss of votes and the last thing anyone in Washington wants to lose is votes.
To get a somewhat different view of the trade deficit, we wanted to bring to your attention a piece in today's Wall Street Journal by Michael Spence, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Philip H. Knight professor emeritus of management in the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University.
According to Spence, there are essentially two motives for China's reserve accumulation (and for that matter, the many other countries accumulating forex reserves).
- "One is to put the countries in a position to exercise some control over the exchange rate, and hence their competitive positions in global markets, exports and growth."
- "The other is a kind of self-insurance, admittedly expensive, against having to borrow in periods of volatility or crisis, and weakness."
According to Spence, the U.S. position on China's trade surplus is politically driven and partly right, but partly incoherent.
The part that is right, he says, is that holding the yuan down removes pressure for the economy to evolve and keep up with development.
The part that is incoherent is the notion or belief that our overall trade deficit or our bilateral trade deficit with China is closely connected to China's policy of neutralizing the impact of the trade surplus and capital inflows.
The graceful way out of this, he says, is gradual: an increase in U.S. savings relative to investment, a reduction in savings relative to investment in China and Japan, a probable further lowering of the market-determined value of the dollar in the short and medium term.
And that, in our view, is precisely why we won't see any of the above... except for an increase in savings relative to investment in the U.S.... because it would be a "graceful" way out.
5. Do My Eyes Deceive Me?
Speaking of currencies, according to Merrill Lynch's Richard Bernstein, if we are looking at the fourth quarter rally in stocks then it appears our eyes may indeed be deceiving us.
According to Bernstein, many of the recent rallies in various asset classes are a form of "money illusion."
For example, the fourth quarter rally in U.S. stocks was almost entirely due to this kind of illusion.
Bernstein writes that when priced in Euros the Dow peaked in October and... you might want to sit down for this... was actually down in the fourth quarter.
The nearly 16% rise in the Dow last year was actually only about 4% priced in Euros, he notes.
Eh, so what, you might say. I get paid in dollars, I buy in dollars, so dollars are all I care about.
That misses the point, Bernstein notes. Each dollar you get paid in buys less and less as the currency declines.
Let's put it another way. Step back for a moment and think about this: when a currency declines so does one's standard of living.
Hmmm, rally don't taste so good now.
But no worries. Remember, we're bullish on the dollar in 2007.
Conseguente storno dei mercati correlati.
Ma al momento lo storno sembra abbastanza routinario sebbene andranno verificati i livelli tecnici di supporto e i livelli di inversione del ratio intermarket.
Per lo spoore importante l'area 1400 circa cash per il breve e 1360 per il medio.
1. Employment Report
Following the release of the ADP employment data earlier this week, and the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index yesterday, the consensus expectations for nonfarm payrolls heading into this morning’s release seemed to be steadily ratcheting down by the minute. Worry warts. It needn't have been.
The change in nonfarm payrolls for December came in at 167,000 versus earlier consensus expectations of 100,000.
By this morning, just before the release, those expectations had largely fallen into the 80,000 range thanks to a bizarre print earlier this week courtesy of the ADP jobs report.
Further suggesting a potentially weak print, yesterday the ISM reported that its Manufacturing Employment Index fell 1.6% to 49.2.
And just like that, Bob's your uncle, the dollar crosses 84.50 and the early spring Fed rate cut hope disappears.
2. Smells Like Yen Spirit
"Load up on guns, bring your friends, it's fun to lose and to pretend"... the carry trade will never end. But you know what? There's apparently a chance, a small chance, the Bank of Japan will move ahead with plans to raise interest rates as soon as this month.
According to Bloomberg, newspaper reports from Japan suggested the Bank of Japan may raise borrowing costs this month, sooner than many expected.
The Nikkei English News on Jan. 3 quoted a BOJ official as saying higher rates would help sustain economic expansion, this two days after the Yomiuri newspaper said the bank may act as early as this month, Bloomberg said.
The BOJ has left rates unchanged at 0.25 percent since they were raised in July for the first time in nearly six years.
Recent economic data from Japan has opened the door to speculation (literally) that the BoJ may be forced to wait until this spring to try and raise rates again.
The yen fell 1.1% against the dollar last year and investors took great advantage of Japan's low interest rates to borrow in Yen and buy foreign assets, the so-called yen carry trade.
3. China Makes Like Archie Bell and the Drells and Does the Tighten Up
China's central bank raised the reserve requirement for commercial banks in a bid to stem a rising tide of liquidity in the banking system. In plain English, they "tightened up" to slow lending.
A bank's reserve requirement is the percentage of deposits they need to keep in hand, in this case deposited with the People's Bank of China.
Otherwise, the remainder of deposits above the reserve requirement may be loaned out to spur economic activity.
"Because of the continuous trade surplus there is a new increase in the already excessive liquidity in the banking system, (and) the pressure for lending to expand is relatively big," the central bank said in a statement on its website.
China is basically concerned about too much money flowing into the country and its financial system from overseas, pushing up domestic stocks, creating too much demand for credit, and putting upward pressure on the yuan.
This leads us to today's Number Four...
4. Same Difference?
So, what's the big deal, then? Doesn't this mean China is edging closer to what the U.S. would like - a rising currency - whether they like it or not?
The U.S. is happy to see the yuan rise, of course, and the widespread belief in this country is that China's estimated $1 trillion in reserves is due almost exclusively to China's $156 billion USD trade surplus thanks to a concerted effort to hold down the value of the yuan.
In Washington, the belief is that the trade deficit we are carrying with China has simply resulted in the U.S. exporting jobs.
A loss of jobs equals a loss of votes and the last thing anyone in Washington wants to lose is votes.
To get a somewhat different view of the trade deficit, we wanted to bring to your attention a piece in today's Wall Street Journal by Michael Spence, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Philip H. Knight professor emeritus of management in the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University.
According to Spence, there are essentially two motives for China's reserve accumulation (and for that matter, the many other countries accumulating forex reserves).
- "One is to put the countries in a position to exercise some control over the exchange rate, and hence their competitive positions in global markets, exports and growth."
- "The other is a kind of self-insurance, admittedly expensive, against having to borrow in periods of volatility or crisis, and weakness."
According to Spence, the U.S. position on China's trade surplus is politically driven and partly right, but partly incoherent.
The part that is right, he says, is that holding the yuan down removes pressure for the economy to evolve and keep up with development.
The part that is incoherent is the notion or belief that our overall trade deficit or our bilateral trade deficit with China is closely connected to China's policy of neutralizing the impact of the trade surplus and capital inflows.
The graceful way out of this, he says, is gradual: an increase in U.S. savings relative to investment, a reduction in savings relative to investment in China and Japan, a probable further lowering of the market-determined value of the dollar in the short and medium term.
And that, in our view, is precisely why we won't see any of the above... except for an increase in savings relative to investment in the U.S.... because it would be a "graceful" way out.
5. Do My Eyes Deceive Me?
Speaking of currencies, according to Merrill Lynch's Richard Bernstein, if we are looking at the fourth quarter rally in stocks then it appears our eyes may indeed be deceiving us.
According to Bernstein, many of the recent rallies in various asset classes are a form of "money illusion."
For example, the fourth quarter rally in U.S. stocks was almost entirely due to this kind of illusion.
Bernstein writes that when priced in Euros the Dow peaked in October and... you might want to sit down for this... was actually down in the fourth quarter.
The nearly 16% rise in the Dow last year was actually only about 4% priced in Euros, he notes.
Eh, so what, you might say. I get paid in dollars, I buy in dollars, so dollars are all I care about.
That misses the point, Bernstein notes. Each dollar you get paid in buys less and less as the currency declines.
Let's put it another way. Step back for a moment and think about this: when a currency declines so does one's standard of living.
Hmmm, rally don't taste so good now.
But no worries. Remember, we're bullish on the dollar in 2007.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
The Distorted Mess
The US economy is now a distorted mess, made all the more difficult to understand if one didn’t have knowledge of the huge Bully-Brazil American income and wealth divide. One piece of data that pulls this together well are taxes withheld from wages. This comes from the US Treasury. The month of December is useful because it represents the wages paid to Joe Soccer Mom, before the noise from all the year end bonuses and other loots paid to Pig Men and high end Bullies. December is the key month for retail employment too, and robust activity in that sector would show up in December withholdings. December wages withheld checked in at 156.958 billion versus 152.230 billion. That’s 3.1% growth, which when population increase is also considered, suggests that some combination of poor wage increases and/or poor increases in worker count is in play. But keep in mind that worker count is not the same as compensation, which we will get a better flavor of in January, when Pig Men taxes are withheld. And we already have a sense of what that will look like.
Incidentally when corporate taxes are added to the Treasury’s December tally, a different picture emerges. The total year over year take was 248.873 versus 231.480. When wages withheld are excluded from this, year over year take from “other” sources was 91.888 versus 79.250, up 15.9%. This completely reinforces the following chart that I’ve posted here before.
California is particularly in my sights right now. As the chart shows, this economy has a huge service sector. If wages paid to the next 10-50% in this bifurcated economy stall, this will show up in the various service sectors including retail. Nationally it is now pretty much a given that retail and auto sales activity for the Christmas season was mixed at best, rather poor at worst. Perhaps once again the term “distorted” could be used to reflect the extreme bifurcation and Gini coeffient of the US economy. California also has a substantial Bubble impacted construction and financial services sector, and similar to prior months, November checked in with minus 34% year over year building permits. Nationally we are now seeing a big swoon in new construction starts as this filters through. Units being finished are going through the roof and the divergence between finishes and under construction signals a Wiley Coyote moment for the residential construction trade.
Incidentally, in the endless leveraged speculation arena, margin debt soared in November by $26.15 billion, 10.7%, to a new cyclical peak of $270.52 billion, from $244.37 billion in October. It was the largest monthly rise ever in dollar terms. Margin debt is now about 1.92% of NYSE market value, near the high end of the 1% to 2% range (the 10-year average is 1.58%; the 20-year average is 1.36%) that has been in force for much of the post-War period. The last cyclical peak for the margin debt percent was 1.96% in February 2000, and the trough in the 1990’s was 0.81% in May 1991. As seen elsewhere with excessive risk taking, this supposed flood of liquidity has a real hot money time bomb component attached to it.
The US economy is now a distorted mess, made all the more difficult to understand if one didn’t have knowledge of the huge Bully-Brazil American income and wealth divide. One piece of data that pulls this together well are taxes withheld from wages. This comes from the US Treasury. The month of December is useful because it represents the wages paid to Joe Soccer Mom, before the noise from all the year end bonuses and other loots paid to Pig Men and high end Bullies. December is the key month for retail employment too, and robust activity in that sector would show up in December withholdings. December wages withheld checked in at 156.958 billion versus 152.230 billion. That’s 3.1% growth, which when population increase is also considered, suggests that some combination of poor wage increases and/or poor increases in worker count is in play. But keep in mind that worker count is not the same as compensation, which we will get a better flavor of in January, when Pig Men taxes are withheld. And we already have a sense of what that will look like.
Incidentally when corporate taxes are added to the Treasury’s December tally, a different picture emerges. The total year over year take was 248.873 versus 231.480. When wages withheld are excluded from this, year over year take from “other” sources was 91.888 versus 79.250, up 15.9%. This completely reinforces the following chart that I’ve posted here before.
California is particularly in my sights right now. As the chart shows, this economy has a huge service sector. If wages paid to the next 10-50% in this bifurcated economy stall, this will show up in the various service sectors including retail. Nationally it is now pretty much a given that retail and auto sales activity for the Christmas season was mixed at best, rather poor at worst. Perhaps once again the term “distorted” could be used to reflect the extreme bifurcation and Gini coeffient of the US economy. California also has a substantial Bubble impacted construction and financial services sector, and similar to prior months, November checked in with minus 34% year over year building permits. Nationally we are now seeing a big swoon in new construction starts as this filters through. Units being finished are going through the roof and the divergence between finishes and under construction signals a Wiley Coyote moment for the residential construction trade.
Incidentally, in the endless leveraged speculation arena, margin debt soared in November by $26.15 billion, 10.7%, to a new cyclical peak of $270.52 billion, from $244.37 billion in October. It was the largest monthly rise ever in dollar terms. Margin debt is now about 1.92% of NYSE market value, near the high end of the 1% to 2% range (the 10-year average is 1.58%; the 20-year average is 1.36%) that has been in force for much of the post-War period. The last cyclical peak for the margin debt percent was 1.96% in February 2000, and the trough in the 1990’s was 0.81% in May 1991. As seen elsewhere with excessive risk taking, this supposed flood of liquidity has a real hot money time bomb component attached to it.
generali1984
Forumer storico
Vedo che il Gipa ti sciorina grafici che non ti aspetti 
aprile ha un significato preciso ?
o solo una magnifica casualità ?
aprile ha un significato preciso ?
o solo una magnifica casualità ?
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