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European Bonds Gain as Trichet Says Economic Growth Moderating
March 6 (Bloomberg) -- European government bonds advanced as the president of the region's central bank Jean-Claude Trichet said growth in the $10.5 trillion economy was moderating.
Bunds rebounded from the biggest drop in more than two weeks yesterday as stock markets in Europe fell and the risk of companies defaulting on their bonds increased, boosting investor demand for the safest assets. The European Central Bank kept its main interest rate at 4 percent today and lowered its predictions for economic growth in the region this year and next.
``The message on growth remains negative,'' said Christoph Kind, who helps manage about $9 billion in bonds at Frankfurt Trust Investment GmbH. ``The market believes growth concerns will dominate the thoughts of the ECB. It is assuming they will move to an easing bias.''
The yield on the 10-year bund, Europe's benchmark, fell 3 basis points to 3.83 percent by 2:36 p.m. in London. The price of the 4 percent security due January 2018 rose 0.27, or 2.7 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,533) face amount, to 101.36.
The yield on the benchmark two-year German note dropped 3 basis points to 3.23 percent. Yields move inversely to bond prices. The two-year note yield may fall to as low as 3.1 percent this month, Kind said.
European stocks slipped, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index losing 0.3 percent. It has dropped 14 percent this year as traders bet troubles in the credit markets and a slowdown in the U.S. economy, the world's largest, will hurt profit growth. Standard and Poor's 500 Index fell 0.7 percent in early trading.
`Uncertainty High'
``Uncertainty about the prospect of economic growth remains unusually high,'' Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt after the interest-rate decision. ``Downside risks continue to exist.''
The euro-region economy will grow 1.7 percent this year and 1.8 percent for 2009, the ECB predicted today, compared with its December forecast for expansion of 2 percent and 2.1 percent.
``It's really rough at the moment,'' Christoph Rieger, a fixed-income strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television before the ECB's decision. A rate cut ``should be delivered by July.''
Interest-rate futures signal traders have raised bets the ECB will cut borrowing costs by midyear as it focuses on the risks to growth rather than rising inflation expectations.
The implied rate on the Euribor contract due in June was little changed at 4.19 percent today, from 4.43 percent on the last trading day of 2007.
`Preferred Date'
``June remains our preferred date for the start of the ECB easing,'' Aurelio Maccario, an economist in Milan at Unicredit MIB, a unit of Italy's largest lender, wrote in a client note.
Inflation expectations have risen since the ECB's previous rate meeting on Feb. 7, according to the difference in yield between France's nominal and similar-maturity inflation-protected notes, the benchmark for the euro area. The spread has widened 18 basis points since then, and was at 227 basis points today.
Frankfurt-based ECB policy makers have kept their main rate at a six-year high since June.
The difference reflects the rate of inflation traders expect for the next decade.
France sold 5 billion euros of bonds maturing between 2015 and 2038 today. The average yield on the 4.25 note due in October 2017 was 4.07 percent, 23 basis points more than the yield on the similar-maturity German bund. Investors bid for 2.53 times the amount of debt offered, compared with 3.22 times when the government last sold the securities.
The difference in yield, or spread, between the 10-year German bund and similar maturity nominal French notes was 22 basis points today, near the most since October 1998.
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