COMMODITIES ... solo per pochi pazzi !!!

rubati a gipa69 !!! :D

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andata ... ho chiuso questa sera 1 lumber scadenza novembre a 367 ... e adesso l'altro mi voglio togliere la soddisfazione di portarlo fino a 300 !!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: :D :D :D

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Nuovo indice sulle Commodities - notizia del 16/09/2004

Refo Commodities ha lanciato ieri il primo indice sulle commodity in India basato sulle 8 principali commodities del mercato future tra cui metalli e prodotti agricoli: oro al 23,37%, frumento al 20,11%, argento al 18,63%, gwar al 11,40%, olio di soia al 10,39%, semi di senape al 7,64%, chana al 7,04% e pepe al 1,42%.
Questo indice permetterà di avere una panoramica dell'andamento del mercato e aiuterà ad analizzare rischi e rientri degli investimenti fatti.
Gli analisi confidano sul fatto che questo indice possa inoltre sfatare il mito che solo i metalli preziosi possano fornire buone opportunità di trading.
 
Legname da costruzione ...

Legname in ribasso - notizia del 18/09/2004

Il contratto di novembre del legname ha chiuso in ribasso di 10 dollari a 353,10 dollari, dopo la constatazione che l'economia potrebbe essere più debole del previsto e per via di voci su un possibile aumento dei fondi monetari da parte della Fdereral Reserve.

contratto di novembre 2004
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contratto di gennaio 2005
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differenziale
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mensile
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cot
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Fleursdumal ha scritto:
in breve il report dell'USDA era bearish per il corn, supportive per i beans, neutral per il wheat . Il mercato ha bastonato il corn ma anche il soybean&derivati e fatto schizzare wheat ( i dati dell'export usciti erano però buoni ) e oats.
Il grafico dello spread corn/wheat dà da pensare

e di uno spread oats/corn ... che ne dici ? :D :D :D ;-)

Corto di avena e lungo sul mais .... a questi livelli dell'avena io ci farei un bel pensierino !!!

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grafici di lungo per il riferimento dei livelli .
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cot
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Mais, riprendiamo il discorso ... legnate senza fine !!!

... l'assenza di notizie spinge d'inerzia la speculazione short, prossimo appoggio sembra essere il 206,25 ... intanto i commercial continuano una fase di accumulazione di posizioni long.

Mais - notizia del 18/09/2004
Il Ministero dell’ Agricoltura USA (USDA) riporta la vendita di 110.000 tonnellate di mais senza rivelarne la destinazione.
Il contratto di dicembre del mais (CZ4) ha perso ieri 1 cent, chiudendo a $ 2,15 ¼ , nuovo minimo storico.


DJ CBOT Corn Midday: New Contract Lows Set In Two-Sided Affair
By Andrew Johnson Jr.
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were near
unchanged in a two-sided affair at midday Friday, managing to rebound after
setting new contract lows for the sixth consecutive day.
At 1043 CT (1543 GMT), CBOT Dec corn was 1/2 cent lower at $2.15 3/4, Mar
was 1/4 cent lower at $2.26, and May corn was 1/2 cent lower at $2.32 1/4 a
bushel.
The market struggled to find early direction, with bearish sentiment
continuing to attract selling interest while a lack of fresh news
, talk of
oversold conditions and pre weekend position squaring provided mild support to
promote a mixed beginning, floor sources said.
Overall activity was fairly quiet, as the absence of significant buying
interest continued to keep the allure of setting new contract lows a dominant
feature.
The market continues to brace for historic production levels that
will flood the pipeline with fresh supplies over the next month. Reports of
higher-than-expected yields from early harvest results have put another log on
the bearish fire that's burning away at corn prices, traders added.
Drier weather outlooks for the weekend and early next week are expected to
produce an active harvest pace and without the threat of a frost in the
northern belt through next week, upside potential remains limited. Export
demand has been less than stellar in recent weeks, with Thursday's above
expectation weekly sales figure failing to temper the defensive theme.
The question of how low can corn prices sink during the fall harvest
remains a hot topic, with traders eyeing the Sep contract's low of $2.06 1/4
as a definite possibility for Dec corn if export demand or crop scares in the
northern belt remain scarce over the next few weeks.

The absence of frost threats for the northern corn belt through next week
should provide crops in the upper Midwest an opportunity to move closer to
maturity.
Parts of Ohio and Kentucky will receive heavy rain from the remnants of
Ivan, but the rest of the region should be dry and mild into next week.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday mainly west of
the Mississippi River. Temperatures will cool to more seasonal readings in the
upper 60s and 70s Fahrenheit late next week, with no threat of frost through
next week, Global Weather Services said.
Ahead of the open, U.S. Department of Agriculture announced private
exporters reported the sale of 110,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to
unknown destinations during the 2004-05 marketing year.
In early corn trades, O'Connor bought 1,000 Dec and Rand Financial bought
200 Dec.
On the sell side, ADM Investor Services sold 400 Dec, Cargill sold 300
Dec, Man Financial and Fimat sold 200 Dec, and Tenco sold 300 Dec.

-By Andrew Johnson Jr.; Dow Jones Newswires; 312-347-4604;
[email protected]


DJ CBOT Corn Review: Extends Bearish Tone; Drifting To New Lows
By Andrew Johnson Jr.
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended
modestly lower Friday, inching out new contract lows for the sixth trading day
in a row.
CBOT Dec corn finished 1 cent lower at $2.15 1/4, Mar ended 1 cent lower
at $2.25 1/4, and May corn finished 3/4 cent lower at $2.32 per bushel. The
Dec contract established a new low of $2.15, Mar corn set a new contract low
of $2.25 and May traded to a new low of $2.31 3/4.
The market has been following the same playbook of the past few sessions,
experiencing quiet two-sided action while sliding to new lows in consecutive
days, said a CBOT commission house broker.
The negative influence of a huge 2004 crop towering over the market helped
keep a defensive theme flowing through the pit, with spillover weakness from
other grains and the absence of any supportive features aiding the lower tone
as well.
The absence of any weather threats for crops in the northern belt over the
next 10 days and favorable harvest conditions in the central belt this weekend
are seen adding to the confidence of bearish traders as they continue to press
the short side of the market.

Speculative selling was a featured attraction, with commercial accounts
scale-down buyers in other wise quiet end of the week trading activity.

Clusters of thunderstorms developed over central Kansas and along the Iowa-
Minnesota border Friday morning. Some of the storms have produced hail and
locally heavy rain, but widespread severe weather is not expected across the
central U.S. Friday afternoon and evening. Most of the Plains and Midwest
should experience a warm and dry weekend, before temperatures cool to more
seasonal readings in the upper 60s and 70s late next week. There is no threat
for frost through next week, Global Weather Services said.
Ahead of the open, U.S. Department of Agriculture announced private
exporters reported the sale of 110,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to
unknown destinations during the 2004-05 marketing year.
In corn trades, Term Commodities bought 200 Mar, Fimat bought 600 Dec,
O'Connor bought 1,500 Dec, Rand Financial bought 200 Dec, Citigroup bought
800 Dec, and Tenco bought 400 Mar.
On the sell side, ADM Investor Services sold 400 Dec and 300 Mar, Cargill
sold 300 Dec, Man Financial and Fimat sold 200 Dec, Citigroup sold 300 Dec,
and Tenco sold 500 Dec.
Oat futures ended lower across the board, trimming previous gains as
traders took the opportunity to book in profits ahead of the weekend. However,
futures continue to maintain underlying supportive fundamentals, with concerns
over harvest delays and quality issues for the Canadian oat crop keeping a
floor under prices.
CBOT Dec oats settled 6 1/2 cents lower at $1.65 1/2, Mar oats ended 5
1/4 cents lower at $1.71 and May oats finished 2 1/2 cents lower at $1.74.

-By Andrew Johnson Jr.; Dow Jones Newswires; 312-347-4604;
[email protected]


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... e ci stiamo sempre più avvicinando ai fatidici 210; dai cot trovo conferma che i commercial stanno continuando ad accumulare posizioni long ...

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paxiensa ed attendiamo.

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Soia - notizia del 21/09/2004

Quello appena iniziato si preannuncia come il secondo miglior raccolto di sempre per la soia americana, nonostante i danni provocati dal cattivo tempo nelle piantagioni più a nord, in Visconsin, North Dakota ed Ohio soprattutto.
Secondo il rapporto del Dipartimento dell’ Agricoltura USA (USDA), il rating “da buono ad eccellente” ha recuperato un altro punto, ed è ora del 64%.
Il 52% delle piante sta perdendo le foglie, contro il 57% che è il valore medio degli ultimi 5 anni in questo periodo.
E’ già stato raccolto l’ 8% del totale, contro il 5% di un anno fa ed il 6% della media degli ultimi 5 anni.
Le previsioni del tempo sono favorevoli per tutta la settimana.

Al CBOT, ieri è stata un’ altra giornata pesante per i futures.
Il contratto di novembre (SX4) ha aperto debole a $ 5,46 ; ha stabilito il nuovo limite di sempre a $ 5,42 ½ , per poi chiudere a
$ 5,43 ¾ .
Nella seduta di oggi, dopo una nuova apertura debole ed un nuovo minimo storico a $ 5,41 ½ , il contratto sta tentando un rintracciamento ed è risalito sopra i $ 5,46.
 
chiuso l'ultimo lumber a 346.

... nonostante l'inkiapettata presa sul contratto di settembre sono riuscito ad archiviare positivamente il trade. :D ;) OK!

... rivaluterei l'ingresso short da livelli più alti, ora flat

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