COMMODITIES ... solo per pochi pazzi !!!

[Fleursdumal]

da sucden.co.uk sul cocoa

Market Commentary
WHEN WILL IT EVER END? CERTAINLY NOT DURING TRADE YESTERDAY WHERE HIGH VOLUMES & RECORD LEVELS OF FUND PURCHASING IN ONE SESSION OCCURRED. IN NY
ALONE FUNDS ARE THOUGHT TO HAVE BOUGHT BETWEEN 10,000 & 15,000 LOTS & IN LDN SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO 2,000 - 3,000 LOTS. ON THE BACK OF THE BUYING BOTH MKTS
POSTED NEW HIGHS OF £991 IN LDN & $1704 IN NY & SETTLED ONLY A WHISKER OFF THESE LEVELS HAVING BROKEN THROUGH A NUMBER OF KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS & WHILST
NY ALSO TRADED AGAINST ITS CURRENCIES STRENGTH.
IVORY COAST NEWS OUT INCLUDED DETAILS OF THE MEETING BEING HELD BETWEEN THE UN SECRETARY GENERAL, AFRICAN HEADS OF STATE & GOVT & REBEL LEADERS;
REASSESSING THE STATE & FUTURE OF THE PEACE PROCESS. ELECTIONS ARE STILL, BY SOME, ENVISAGED AS BEING HELD AT THE END OF OCTOBER ALTHOUGH FOR THE 1ST TIME
IN THE PRESS THERE IS WORD OF A DELAY TO THE TIMETABLE.
LDN'S MORNING SESSION OPENED STRONGLY & IN A SIMILAR VEIN TO PREVIOUS DAYS TESTED LOWER PRIOR TO WORKING STEADILY HIGHER ON ONGOING SPEC & FUND BUYING.
SPRDS ALSO PROVED TO BE VERY ACTIVE WITH U/Z RANGING FROM -£2 TO £4 PREMIUM. MUCH SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS THE BUYING CONTINUE TO ILLICIT GOOD TRADE & ORIGIN
SELLING, AS WAS TO BE THE CASE ONCE NY OPENED.
NY WAS GIVEN A DUE OF UNCHANGED TO A LITTLE HIGHER ONLY TO OPEN UP $8. SPECS & FUND BUYING CONTINUED FROM THE OFF WHILST SELLERS INCLUDED TRADE, ORIGIN
& ARBITRAGEURS. THE BUYING IN BOTH MKTS, LDN BOLSTERED BY ARBS, CONTINUED STEADILY & UNABATED WITH LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR FRESH POSITION TAKING OR SHORT
-COVERING INTO THE DIPS AS THEYJUST DID NOT OCCUR. PROFIT-TAKERS WERE ALSO EVIDENT ON THE SELL SIDE AS BOTH MKTS TRADE ~ £150 & $220 ABOVE THEIR RECENT
LOWS. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE TO FOLLOW THE TREND AS WE LIKE OTHERS FIND IT DIFFICULT TO BE ABLE TO FORECAST THE FUNDS BUYING SATURATION POINT IN EITHER
ARENA.

 

[gipa69]

da sucden.co.uk sul cocoa

Market Commentary
WHEN WILL IT EVER END? CERTAINLY NOT DURING TRADE YESTERDAY WHERE HIGH VOLUMES & RECORD LEVELS OF FUND PURCHASING IN ONE SESSION OCCURRED. IN NY
ALONE FUNDS ARE THOUGHT TO HAVE BOUGHT BETWEEN 10,000 & 15,000 LOTS & IN LDN SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO 2,000 - 3,000 LOTS. ON THE BACK OF THE BUYING BOTH MKTS
POSTED NEW HIGHS OF £991 IN LDN & $1704 IN NY & SETTLED ONLY A WHISKER OFF THESE LEVELS HAVING BROKEN THROUGH A NUMBER OF KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS & WHILST
NY ALSO TRADED AGAINST ITS CURRENCIES STRENGTH.
IVORY COAST NEWS OUT INCLUDED DETAILS OF THE MEETING BEING HELD BETWEEN THE UN SECRETARY GENERAL, AFRICAN HEADS OF STATE & GOVT & REBEL LEADERS;
REASSESSING THE STATE & FUTURE OF THE PEACE PROCESS. ELECTIONS ARE STILL, BY SOME, ENVISAGED AS BEING HELD AT THE END OF OCTOBER ALTHOUGH FOR THE 1ST TIME
IN THE PRESS THERE IS WORD OF A DELAY TO THE TIMETABLE.
LDN'S MORNING SESSION OPENED STRONGLY & IN A SIMILAR VEIN TO PREVIOUS DAYS TESTED LOWER PRIOR TO WORKING STEADILY HIGHER ON ONGOING SPEC & FUND BUYING.
SPRDS ALSO PROVED TO BE VERY ACTIVE WITH U/Z RANGING FROM -£2 TO £4 PREMIUM. MUCH SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS THE BUYING CONTINUE TO ILLICIT GOOD TRADE & ORIGIN
SELLING, AS WAS TO BE THE CASE ONCE NY OPENED.
NY WAS GIVEN A DUE OF UNCHANGED TO A LITTLE HIGHER ONLY TO OPEN UP $8. SPECS & FUND BUYING CONTINUED FROM THE OFF WHILST SELLERS INCLUDED TRADE, ORIGIN
& ARBITRAGEURS. THE BUYING IN BOTH MKTS, LDN BOLSTERED BY ARBS, CONTINUED STEADILY & UNABATED WITH LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR FRESH POSITION TAKING OR SHORT
-COVERING INTO THE DIPS AS THEYJUST DID NOT OCCUR. PROFIT-TAKERS WERE ALSO EVIDENT ON THE SELL SIDE AS BOTH MKTS TRADE ~ £150 & $220 ABOVE THEIR RECENT
LOWS. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE TO FOLLOW THE TREND AS WE LIKE OTHERS FIND IT DIFFICULT TO BE ABLE TO FORECAST THE FUNDS BUYING SATURATION POINT IN EITHER
ARENA.

Utilizzi Sucden?

 

[Fleursdumal]

leggo i loro report, sono indispensabili per usare il liffe a meno che non trovi di meglio

 

[gipa69]

Grassie


While some soft commodities like sugar and orange juice have been making headlines by hitting new highs a number of them have remained in base formations and are starting to look more interesting. Here are some of the more appealing charts:

Cotton - peaked in 1995 around $1.10. Following an impressive rally between 2001 and 2003 it went from 30¢ to 85¢, before retracing much of that move. Since 2004 it has been ranging between 40¢ and 60¢. The most recent activity broke the progression of rising lows within the range, indicating that demand has not reached critical mass to force a breakout.

Lumber - has been trading in a very broad range between $200 and $450 for the last 13 years. It is currently in the lower third of that range and has found some support near the 2004/05 lows. An upward dynamic would be needed to confirm support in this area. Lumber has recently moved into backwardation and seasonally this has been a bullish period so at least a short-term rally would not be surprising.

Palm Oil - bottomed in 2001 near 750 and moved into a volatile uptrend before peaking in early 2004. Since then it has been trading in a tight range between 1350 and 1520. It is currently testing the top of the base. A sustained break above 1550 would complete the base and could see some significant appreciation in the medium-term.

Barley - has been trading in a tight base with incrementally higher lows since early 2005. The recent contract change has formed a breakout from that base and provided it holds it there is significant room for appreciation.

Canola - tested historic lows at the beginning of the year and rallied impressively since. It is now approaching the first area of potential resistance at $300. A sustained move above that level would complete the base and open the door for further gains.

Corn - 200¢ has provided reliable support for corn over the last 10 years. The most recent advance from that level up to 250¢ lost its consistency at the end of last month when it posted a lower low. The contract change shows a large contango but has maintained the break above 250¢, which was an area of potential resistance. This remains a volatile market and a sustained move above the latest high on the current contract would be needed to confirm the upward break.

Oats - are pressuring the 2002 highs near 210. Importantly, while that level was the peak of an acceleration 4 years ago, oats has now built up to it in a more consistent fashion, making an upside break more likely.

Soybeans - traded in a very cyclical fashion in the 1970's but has become gradually less so over the last 20 years. It hit over 900¢ in 1973, '74, '76, '80 '83, '88 and '04. Before the 2004 peak it had bottomed above 400¢ and the subsequent convalescence has seen it find support above 500¢. The top of the present tight range sits at 650¢ and a sustained break above that level could challenge the 2005 highs. In addition Soybean oil which often leads has already broken out.

Wheat - has been posting higher major reaction lows since 2000 and has had some significant accelerations in that time. It is now pressuring the 2003/04 highs and would need a break of the medium-term uptrend to limit scope for further upside.

Cocoa - has recently broken out of the 15 month range and is closing in on the 2005 highs. It would need a significant break of the uptrend for this level to prove anything other than token resistance.

Coffee (Arabica) - having found support near the 2002 lows close to 50¢, coffee has moved into a relatively consistent uptrend with a progression of rising major reaction lows. The acceleration in late 2004, early 2005 has been rehabilitated and looks set to break the medium-term downtrend.

 

[gipa69]

News & Issues
The futures market seems to be unaware of the additional output from Iraq. NYMEX moved up $1.26 Wednesday to settle at a record $75.19. This market continues to ignore any good news and to over emphasize the bad. This condition has its roots in the lack of spare crude oil production capacity with additional support from hedge funds and other players that do not have any interest in the physical crude or products. The non-commercials in the CFTC report are net long in their positions indicating that they expect higher prices. The commercials, those who purchase or produce crude and products, are net short.

Saudi Arabia

It may not seem much by U.S. standards but Saudi Arabia just commissioned its 100th drilling rig. The United States has 1,666 rigs actively drilling for oil and natural gas with 302 of those rigs targeting oil. In its latest report Baker Hughes said that in May there were 62 active rigs in Saudi Arabia with 43 targeting oil. This is highest level of drilling activity recorded in the kingdom. The Baker rig count is not a census of total rigs and only counts those rigs which are actively drilling. See Saudi Aramco Puts 100th Rig to Work

This is additional confirmation that Saudi Arabia intends to make good on its promise to increase production capacity to 12 million barrels per day. Recall that Saudi Arabia reduced production by about 400,000 barrels per day this quarter and now has 1.3 - 1.8 million barrels of spare capacity. See Saudi Arabia announces discovering gas field in eastern region

Iraq

Last week we reported that shipments have resumed from northern fields in Iraq. So far there has been no interruption due to pipeline attacks. The oil out of Kirkuk tends to be light to medium crude. This is the quality of crude which has been in short supply and in less troubling times the additional Iraqi crude would have caused a drop in oil prices.

This week Iraq announced that it will be letting exploration contracts in the near future, but the majors will be skittish to enter Iraq before security improves. See Iraq oil output hits a new high and Iraq to invite oil majors for deals

Iran

If any of the price movement can be traced to the situation with Iran it is probably not justified. Iran did not meet the early response desired by the US and EU. This should not be any surprise as Iran had previously indicated that it would not respond until the fourth week in August. See Iran says it will give no early nuclear reply and 'Iran N-talks would lower temperature in W.Asia'.

Venezuela

Chavez model for Africa

Chavez seeks to extend his influence and if Africa follows his example the result would be higher oil prices in the long run. Chavez wants African oil producers to adopt his model increasing the state's stake in private oil companies, charging higher royalties and increasing the income tax on oil production. The more countries that follow the Chavez model the slower the growth rate in oil production and the higher the world price of oil. Virtually all Venezuelan oil production is now controlled by the state and state run oil companies are generally less productive than those in the private sector. A Venezuelan model leads to the following:

Less efficient operations in the hands of the state oil company
Higher royalties which lower the effective oil price that a company receives for oil produced making investments in the country less attractive.
Majority ownership by the state oil company increases the management risk to a potential international investor.
Higher tax rates have a similar impact to higher royalties.
A country that fails to honor previous contracts increases the perception of risk for new investment. The country risk is high in Venezuela.

In summary, Venezuelan type policies discourage outside investment and lead to lower production or slower rates of growth. See Venezuela's Chavez urges Africa to unite against US

GAO Report

The final version of the GAO report we mentioned last week is out. Rather than review the document in detail we have put up a copy on our site. See ENERGY SECURITY Issues related to Potential Reductions in Venezuelan Oil Production (PDF).

The analysis was done at the request of the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and was to address three questions. (1) How has Venezuela’s production of crude oil and exports of crude oil and refined petroleum products to the United States changed in recent years, and what are the future prospects? (2) What are the potential impacts of a reduction in Venezuelan oil exports, a Venezuelan embargo on oil exports to the United States, or sudden closure of Venezuela’s refineries in the United States? (3) What is the status of U.S. government programs and activities to ensure a reliable supply of oil from Venezuela and to mitigate the impacts of a supply disruption?

Even if you cannot take time to read the entire document skim the subtitles and margin notes. This is an excellent analysis. However, because of the base price analyzed in the three scenarios in the second question we think that the price impact of the three cases in the second question was understated. The first case has an interruption of 2.2 million barrels of Venezuelan production and concludes the price would increase $11 from the $55 base price. If they assumed a price near today's they would have estimates nearer to a $14 increase. We think even a $14 gain is too low and that the impact would be closer to $20 per barrel.

The second case is a Venezuelan embargo on shipments to the U.S. In this case they use an unpublished EIA study which estimated that prices would increase 8 - 11 percent or about half the impact of the first case. We are more comfortable with the high end of the range and would not be surprised at a 15 percent gain in the early stages of an embargo.

The final case of a shutdown of PDVSA's U.S. refineries was not accompanied by a forecast of the amount that product prices would change but noted that U.S. product prices would rise initially. Venezuela refineries are about 4 percent of the U.S. total capacity. The report noted "Venezuela would also lose the profits of these refineries for as long as they were shut down, and could face sanctions by the U.S. government—including freezing Venezuelan assets in the United States—if the closure of the refineries were deemed a threat to U.S. security." It is unclear to us whether the U.S. could force the refineries to continue production.

Avoiding U.S. Taxes?

We have speculated that if Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez decided to make good on his threats to embargo the U.S. he would first sell the Citgo Refineries to avoid the potential that Citgo and other assets might be seized in court actions following an embargo. The refinery owned with Lyondell is already on the block but what is interesting is the following comment from the article below. "PdVSA supplies the refinery with 230,000 barrels a day of crude under a long-term contract, and it remains unclear whether a new owner would be obligated to continue buying crude from PdVSA. Lyondell has said that the terms of the refinery's current supply contract suppresses profits."

Venezuela often claims it receives too low a price for its crude oil and alternately that its U.S. refining operations are not that profitable. We will show the price is not too low but that the refineries should be more profitable.

The price of a barrel of oil varies with its quality which is usually summarized in two numbers: the API gravity and the sulfur content. Lower API gravity crude is thicker, heavier and more difficult to refine and in an open market sells at a discount to lighter crude oil. Since most sulfur must be removed by the refiners the additional cost means high sulfur crude will sell at a discount to low sulfur oil. Most often low API gravity oil also has a high sulfur content.

Let's look at a few numbers. Most of the oil purchased by Lyondel-Citgo has an API gravity less than 20 and is almost all from Venezuela. Of the crude oil imported to the U.S. in April, 56 percent of the crude with an API gravity of 20º or below was from Venezuela. The average landed price of all crude oil of that quality imported in April was $57.78 per barrel. Higher quality crude in the 20.1º to 25.0º range averaged $54.83 or almost $3.00 per barrel less in April than the lower quality oil.

Over the last year the price of crude oil with an API gravity 20.0º or less averaged slightly less that oil in the 20.1º to 25.0º range. The difference was only $0.25 per barrel. Contrast this with 25.1º to 30.0º which sold at a $7.00 premium to the 20.1º to 25.0º crude oil. Or 30.1º to 35.0º crude that sold at $3.43 premium to the 25.1º to 30.0º oil. In other words the 20.0º or lower oil should be at a far greater discount than it is.

The evidence is circumstantial but when Venezuela is the source of 56 percent of the lowest quality crude, when it sells almost all of it to its affiliates and when the price of that oil is not significantly lower than the next higher grade of crude it might be reasonable to assume that Citgo and Lyondell-Citgo are paying too much for the oil. This reduces their profit and therefore the U.S. taxes those refiners would pay. One might conclude that instead of low prices Venezuela receives higher than market prices for its very heavy crude and that the reason that the U.S. refineries owned by Venezuela are not more profitable is because they are paying too much for oil purchased from their parent company PDVSA. Paying lower taxes to the U.S. government is just a bonus. See Six firms interested in Lyondell-Citgo refinery.




Copyright © 2006
James L. Williams
WTRG Economics
(479) 293-4081

 

[ditropan]

Osservando un grafico di lungo del NatGas si può notare che negli ultimi dieci anni ogni qualvolta il gas ha fatto un massimo tra la fine dell'anno e l'inizio dell'anno ha poi effettuato un minimo tra i mesi di Agosto e Settembre escluso mi sembra nel 1997.
Luglio è stato spesso un mese abbastanza negativo per il naturalgas.
Tenuto conto di queste considerazioni e dei problemi evidenziati sul rollaggio forse sarebbe attualmente interessante prendere posizione su altro strumento....

Hoii ... mitticoooooooo GIPPONE !!!

In merito al gas : non tutti gli anni è la stessa solfa, dipende un'attimino anche dal tempo e dalle condizioni climatiche, nei mesi estivi il tempo condiziona molto i prezzi ... i quali usando un gioco di parole sono condizionati dall'uso dei condizionatori d'aria accesi in giro per l'America !
Insomma ... se il tempo è mite ... poki condizionatori accesi => poco uso di energia elettrica => prezzi sempre più compressi.

E' comunque ovvio e palese che questi non sono prezzi ... anche perchè li devi rapportare anche al prezzo degli altri energetici quali le benzine ed il petrolio.
Se andiamo quindi a prendere come riferimento l'olio crudo ci accrorgiamo per esempio è vero che nel 2004 il gas è pure arrivato a 4,6$ (contratto scadenza ottobre 2004 --> ) ma con un petrolio a 42$
Nel 2005 invece con scorte di gas più o meno analoghe a quelle di quest'anno ed un crude oil a 51$ il gas non è mai andato sotto a 6,2$ (grafico --> ).
I prezzi del gas a 5,5$ di quest'anno con un crude oil a 75$ sono dunque a dir poco ridicoli !!!
Io sono francamente convinto che da questi valori si dovranno risollevare ... per mostrarvi che non stò a raccontarvi le favole ed a quanto vado dicendo ci credo seriamente vi posso solo dire che al momento ho una posizione di 28 mini gas in perdita di 35.000 $ ...

... putroppo dire quando questo si riprenderà a correre non è dato a saperlo, potrebbe ripartire la prossima settimana come pure potrebbe farci soffrire fino a settembre. Al momento sono sprovvisto di sfera di cristallo !

Una cosa è certa ... questi a mio avviso sono prezzi su cui accumulare posizioni in vista di settembre ottobre.

Sul dove accumulare posizioni non è ancora ben chiaro ... uno potrebbe accumulare iniziando sul mese in scadenza e poi rollare di volta in volta sperando che ad ogni rolling la differenza di prezzo vada restringendosi via via ad ogni scadenza portandosi sui soliti 0,2-0,25% oppure decidere direttamente per la scadenza ottobre-novembre pagando subito la differenza di carry. Queste sono scelte personali cui preferisco non addentrarmi.

 

[gipa69]

Natural Gas Report



In this week's EIA report there was a 66 BCF injection to storage raising the volume of working gas in storage to 2,542 BCF as of the 23rd.

Over the next 19 weeks injections need only average 42.3 BCF / week to match the highest weekly storage number of 3,327 BCF established in 2004. Despite the relatively low injections the last four weeks a normal air conditioning load this summer will still result in record high storage levels by fall and continued downward pressure on prices. To put the 42.3 BCF per week in context during the injection season (April-October) of 2005 there were only 7 weeks when net storage injections were less than 42.3. In 2004 there were only 4 weeks.

In a higher than normal storage situation early in the injection season consumers that store gas for winter see that they are ahead of schedule and may slow purchases hoping that prices will decline. Spot or uncommitted storage being in short supply may increase in price. Producers might want to reduce production hoping for better prices later. Some production may be curtailed because higher pipeline pressures slow the flow of gas from the wells. Fuel switching from fuel oils has increased demand for power generation. A combination of these factors and some additional demand induced by lower prices explain why injections have been below average for the last six weeks.

We will address some of these issues in an update and extension of the natural gas series next week.

For the week of June 23, 2006 there was a 66 BCF injection to storage compared to an average injection of 103 BCF for the closest weeks in the previous 5-year period. Current storage at 2,542 BCF is 618 BCF (32.1%) above the 5-year average and 409 BCF (19.2%) above last year. For the reporting week natural gas spot prices averaged $6.493 / mmbtu and crude oil was $69.93 per barrel ($12.057 / mmbtu). So far this week spot gas averaged $5.972 / mmbtu and crude oil was $71.97 per barrel ($12.409 / mmbtu).

With spot prices at $5.97 and January futures at $10.38 more than one person has considered buying spot gas for storage and selling a January contract for the same volume on the futures market. This has put upward pressure on storage prices.
Population weighted cooling degree days totaled 71 which was 16 degree days greater than average and 20 more than last year. At 2 heating degree days, for the reporting week of the 23rd, gas consumption weighted heating degree days were 4 less than normal and 1 less than last year. (See population weighted cooling degree days at cooling degree days, gas home heating customer weighted degree days at heating degree days and the NOAA temperature anomaly map.)


We see continued downward pressure on gas prices relative to crude subject to support from concern about the hurricane season and the mercurial forecasts of warmer weather. Some industrial demand has returned. The latest data is for April with industrial consumption 1.2 BCF per day lower than last year. While lower than last year it indicates a 1.8 BCF per day improvement from the impact of last year's hurricanes on industrial consumption.



Natural gas prices are below the price of residual fuel oil in most markets and power plants and industrial users with dual fuel capability have switched to natural gas. Since liquid prices are higher on a BTU basis than natural gas, producers with liquids in their gas stream remove all that they can. This takes something over a half BCF per day from natural gas supplies compared to last December.


Crude oil prices are a significant component of natural gas prices. Crude oil and natural gas markets overlap where natural gas competes with fuel oil in industrial and power generation facilities with dual fuel capability. Normally the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub is below crude oil at Cushing, OK on a BTU equivalent basis. It only goes above crude when there is concern about meeting winter demand. At the burner tip delivered gas is usually higher than crude but we are using the most common gas price at the Henry Hub in Louisiana which is a long way from most consumers. Gas must incur additional transportation and distribution costs before reaching the customer.


Gas prices have moved back in line with our expectations relative to crude oil. The margin between crude and natural gas spot prices on a BTU basis is at $6.437 up from $5.564 last week. Natural gas so far this week averaged $5.972 and is $0.521 lower than last year. With gas $0.521 per mmbtu lower than a year ago and crude oil up $2.365 per mmbtu ($13.72 / bbl.) the implication is that high storage levels have reduced natural gas prices by $3.559 per mmbtu compared to crude oil prices over the last year. At this point crude oil is a major support for natural gas prices but high gas storage levels continue to exert downward pressure.


Weekly Average Price
Change


06/28/06 06/23/06 07/01/05 Weekly Annual
Oil $71.97 $69.93 $58.25 $2.04 $13.72
Gas $/mmbtu $5.972 $6.493 $7.166 ($0.521) ($1.194)
Oil $/mmbtu $12.409 $12.057 $10.043 $0.352 $2.365
Gas-Oil ($6.437) ($5.564) ($2.877) ($0.873) ($3.559)


Higher than normal inventories are the primary reason behind the failure of gas to follow the annual increase in crude. Our outlook is a little more negative for gas prices. We expect the basis between gas and crude oil to widen a little more. However, fear of a recurrence of last year's hurricane damage has already slowed that process.


At a $70 crude oil price $5.50 would be near the lowest spot gas price we would expect with summer hurricane fears supporting prices. On a percentage basis natural gas prices have been lower than crude by more than they are today and given the level of storage and $70 per barrel oil prices with $5.00 gas is a possibility. The open question is how how much support prices get from the hurricane fear factor? We anticipate no more than another $1.00 of downside risk to gas prices if crude oil remains near $70 per barrel.


Storage Data

In the Eastern Consuming region gas in storage is 33.8% above the 5-year average, the Western Region is 24.0% above normal, and the Producing Region is 33.0% above the 5-year average.


Total current storage of 2,542 BCF is 618 BCF (32.1%) above the 5-year average and 409 BCF (19.2%) higher than last year when natural gas spot prices were $1.19 higher at $7.17.


Eastern storage at 1,359 BCF is 343 BCF (33.8%) above the 5-year average and 261 BCF (23.8%) above last year. There was a net injection of 42 BCF, which is 25 BCF less than the five year average of 67 BCF. The East is always the critical area to watch and remains in good shape.

Storage in the Producing Region showed a net injection of 15 BCF compared to a 5-year average injection of 25 BCF. The Producing Region now contains 827 BCF with storage 205 BCF (33.0%) above the 5-year average and 118 BCF (16.6%) above last year.

Storage of 356 BCF in the West Consuming Region is 69 BCF (24.0%) above the 5-year average of 287 BCF and 29 BCF (8.9%) above last year. There was a 9 BCF injection which is 3 BCF less than the 5-year average.


Prices continue to justify high levels of exploration. Gas exploration activity is at historically high levels. See gas rig count.

The Weekly Storage Report has detailed graphs by region.

There are five items that determine natural gas price this summer: (1) crude oil price, (2) actual and forecast temperature, (3) the level of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity, (4) planned and unexpected outages at nuclear power plants, (5) forecast and actual hurricanes and (6) the rate of recovery for Gulf production.

Note: Remember that there is insufficient production, import or pipeline capacity to support winter consumption and that 2.0 - 2.5 TCF must be added to storage each year before the winter heating season begins.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The MMS stopped regular report of Gulf of Mexico status. On June 19 they issued another report. There was 0.935 BCF per day of gs still shut-in compared to 1.295 BCF per day of gas on May 4. Shut-in oil production was 174,970 b/d compared to the previous number of 324,445 b/d. See the Katrina/Rita This has been slow but considerable improvement in the last 6 weeks. The more dramatic oil numbers are due to Thunderhorse coming back on-line. Fortunately there is no short term need for the gas with storage levels near historic highs. See the GOM page for regional detail of damage updates.

The two graphs below are the best short term indicators of natural gas prices.
The first shows the relative prices of natural gas and crude oil with oil prices converted to their BTU equivalent. Since oil and natural gas compete directly in some markets, most notably power generation, high crude oil prices put upward pressure on natural gas prices.

The second shows the difference between the current volume of storage and the 5-year average. When the difference is significantly below normal it is an indicator that demand exceeds supply implying higher than "normal" prices.

The red line in the graph below (scaled on the left) shows the difference between the current level of gas in storage and the average of the previous five years. The black line (scaled on the right) is the current natural gas price less the price of crude after it is converted to the BTU equivalent price.

 

[ditropan]

In merito alle granaglie, oramai credo che per quest'anno possiamo archiviare la stagione dei rally (... che praticamente non c'è mai stato ).
Io credevo che con la morte del contratto di luglio sarebbero ripartiti in quarta per l'ultima onda rialzista, specie sul corn che è in piena fase critica ed è quello rimasto più indietro a livello di prezzi ... putroppo però così non sta accadendo, ed il tempo non collabora ...

*******************************************************
Mais - 08-07-2006 - ore 09:00
Il mercato del mais ha avuto una seduta al ribasso dopo la corsa di due giorni fa. Le previsioni indicano una copertura del 70% per la pioggia durante la prossima settimana.

Frumento - 08-07-2006 - ore 09:00
Forte ribasso anche per il frumento ieri dopo i dati deludenti per le vendite: 298.800 tonnellate per la settimana, rispetto alle attese di 300 – 500 mila tonnellate.
*******************************************************

... oramai si avvicina sempre più la fase di completamento del raccolto pure su frumento ed avena che fanno da freno motore per il rialzo delle granaglie.
Da metà luglio in poi dunque avremo 2 zavorre che non faranno altro che avere una tendenza al ribasso (Wheat ed Oats appunto) ... il rialzo sarà quidi legato solo da soia e corn ... se però il tempo non collabora con qualche bella siccità ... e pare proprio non collaborare :'( ... c'è ben poco da sperare !!!

A questo punto io preferisco decretare morta la stagione delle granaglie ... mi tengo i miei 10 wheat e 40 oats short in attesa di ulteriore debolezza in vista del raccolto e pace all'anima loro fino a dicembre 2006 o gennaio del prossimo anno. ... in cui daremo un'okkio alla situazione per rimettersi al galoppo di un'altro ciclo.


Augh ... anche per questo W.E. il ditro ha sparato le sue castronerie.

 

[ditropan]

In merito alle granaglie, oramai credo che per quest'anno possiamo archiviare la stagione dei rally (... che praticamente non c'è mai stato ).
Io credevo che con la morte del contratto di luglio sarebbero ripartiti in quarta per l'ultima onda rialzista, specie sul corn che è in piena fase critica ed è quello rimasto più indietro a livello di prezzi ... putroppo però così non sta accadendo, ed il tempo non collabora ...

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Mais - 08-07-2006 - ore 09:00
Il mercato del mais ha avuto una seduta al ribasso dopo la corsa di due giorni fa. Le previsioni indicano una copertura del 70% per la pioggia durante la prossima settimana.

Frumento - 08-07-2006 - ore 09:00
Forte ribasso anche per il frumento ieri dopo i dati deludenti per le vendite: 298.800 tonnellate per la settimana, rispetto alle attese di 300 – 500 mila tonnellate.
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... oramai si avvicina sempre più la fase di completamento del raccolto pure su frumento ed avena che fanno da freno motore per il rialzo delle granaglie.
Da metà luglio in poi dunque avremo 2 zavorre che non faranno altro che avere una tendenza al ribasso (Wheat ed Oats appunto) ... il rialzo sarà quidi legato solo da soia e corn ... se però il tempo non collabora con qualche bella siccità ... e pare proprio non collaborare :'( ... c'è ben poco da sperare !!!

A questo punto io preferisco decretare morta la stagione delle granaglie ... mi tengo i miei 10 wheat e 40 oats short in attesa di ulteriore debolezza in vista del raccolto e pace all'anima loro fino a dicembre 2006 o gennaio del prossimo anno. ... in cui daremo un'okkio alla situazione per rimettersi al galoppo di un'altro ciclo.


Augh ... anche per questo W.E. il ditro ha sparato le sue castronerie.

... e te pareva !!! ... nemmeno aperto bocca venerdì ... e poi guarda un po te che mi combinano ...

 

[leon3037]

BENZINA VERDE

Con avviso di Borsa odierno si apprende che dal 01/01/2007 il Future su Benzina Verde (Unleaded Gasoline) non verrà più quotato al Nymex. Pertanto, tutti gli strumenti derivati su tale future non potranno più essere negoziati dal momento in cui non sarà più possibile rilevare il valore del future. I certificati interessati sono:

1 Certificate ISIN NL0000472058

2 Minilong e Minishort (in totale 4 leverage certificates)

Si consiglia di inizare a smontare eventuali posizioni e a non intraprenderne di nuove visto che nei mesi precedenti alla data di cessazione del contratto, questo future non sarà particolarmente liquido e ciò si rifletterà negativamente sul prezzo denaro-lettera del certificato.


a cura di CertificatieDerivati



meglio metterlo anche qui.