lorenzo63
Age quod Agis
Da un' analisi dell'Eurozona..
..ad una previsione di taglio di 0.5 bps del TUR di BCE
LONDON -- The euro zone's economic contraction is accelerating, with little prospect of a near-term turnaround, underpinning expectations the European Central Bank will cut its key interest rate further next month.
A survey of purchasing managers at manufacturers and service providers this month showed the composite purchasing managers index -- which measures private-sector activity -- fell to 36.2 from 38.3 in January to hit a record low, the Markit Economics research firm said Friday.
The report coincided with data showing French business confidence is at its lowest ebb this month since sentiment was first gauged in 1976.
Economists see the purchasing-managers index as one of the earliest indicators of how the euro-zone economy is performing. A reading below 50 indicates that activity is contracting, a point the euro zone crossed in June.
The unexpected drop this month appeared to extinguish early hopes that the pace of the contraction in the 16 economies sharing the euro had stabilized in early 2009, fueled by surveys in January of an improving outlook among purchasing managers and German financial analysts.
Many economists took the news as more evidence that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates again in March.
"If there was any doubt in about a [half-percentage-point] cut from the ECB next month, those doubts should now be put to rest," said David Mackie, an economist at J.P. Morgan.
The ECB has cut its key interest rate in each of the four months from October to January as the region slipped into recession, but left its key interest rate unchanged at 2% in February.
Speaking in Paris Friday, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the economy won't emerge from its slump any time soon. "There will be some time before this crisis is over," Mr. Trichet said.
According to Markit's analysis, the PMI data indicate that euro-zone gross domestic product in the current quarter will contract at an even more rapid pace than the 1.5% rate recorded in the fourth quarter, which was by far the largest drop in activity since records for the currency area began in 1995.
"The latest survey data support our view that the euro-zone recession will be deeper and more prolonged than most forecasters expect," said Ben May, an economist at Capital Economics.
The Markit PMI survey showed new orders fell for the 10th straight month, declining at a record pace. As a result, backlogs of work fell for the eleventh straight month, also at a record rate. In response, businesses cut payrolls for the eighth straight month.
Purchasing managers also reported that their companies were cutting their prices at the fastest pace on record.
Separately, the French consumer-price index in January dropped 0.4% from the previous month, cutting the yearly increase to 0.7%, national statistics bureau Insee reported. The outcome showed the possibility of zero inflation, or even a period of deflation, creeping into euro-zone price levels later this year. (See retlated article.)
Insee also reported that an index measuring business confidence fell to 68 in February from 73 the previous month, bringing it to its lowest level since 1976. Economists had been expecting a more-modest fall to 70.
Italy's statistics agency, meanwhile, reported industrial orders fell by 15% in December from a year earlier, compared with a 26% drop in November.
The U.K., which isn't in the euro zone, reported contradictory economic news Friday. Seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.7% in January from the previous month after an upwardly revised 1.7% increase in December, according to the U.K. statistics office.
Economists had difficult squaring the reported increases with rising unemployment rising rapidly, tumbling home and asset prices and confidence at record lows. Underscoring that discrepancy, the U.K. council of mortgage lenders reported that the number of U.K. homes that were repossessed declined slightly in the fourth quarter, but the figure for 2008 as a whole soared to its highest level in 12 years.
..ad una previsione di taglio di 0.5 bps del TUR di BCE
LONDON -- The euro zone's economic contraction is accelerating, with little prospect of a near-term turnaround, underpinning expectations the European Central Bank will cut its key interest rate further next month.
A survey of purchasing managers at manufacturers and service providers this month showed the composite purchasing managers index -- which measures private-sector activity -- fell to 36.2 from 38.3 in January to hit a record low, the Markit Economics research firm said Friday.
The report coincided with data showing French business confidence is at its lowest ebb this month since sentiment was first gauged in 1976.
Economists see the purchasing-managers index as one of the earliest indicators of how the euro-zone economy is performing. A reading below 50 indicates that activity is contracting, a point the euro zone crossed in June.
The unexpected drop this month appeared to extinguish early hopes that the pace of the contraction in the 16 economies sharing the euro had stabilized in early 2009, fueled by surveys in January of an improving outlook among purchasing managers and German financial analysts.
Many economists took the news as more evidence that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates again in March.
"If there was any doubt in about a [half-percentage-point] cut from the ECB next month, those doubts should now be put to rest," said David Mackie, an economist at J.P. Morgan.
The ECB has cut its key interest rate in each of the four months from October to January as the region slipped into recession, but left its key interest rate unchanged at 2% in February.
Speaking in Paris Friday, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the economy won't emerge from its slump any time soon. "There will be some time before this crisis is over," Mr. Trichet said.
According to Markit's analysis, the PMI data indicate that euro-zone gross domestic product in the current quarter will contract at an even more rapid pace than the 1.5% rate recorded in the fourth quarter, which was by far the largest drop in activity since records for the currency area began in 1995.
"The latest survey data support our view that the euro-zone recession will be deeper and more prolonged than most forecasters expect," said Ben May, an economist at Capital Economics.
The Markit PMI survey showed new orders fell for the 10th straight month, declining at a record pace. As a result, backlogs of work fell for the eleventh straight month, also at a record rate. In response, businesses cut payrolls for the eighth straight month.
Purchasing managers also reported that their companies were cutting their prices at the fastest pace on record.
Separately, the French consumer-price index in January dropped 0.4% from the previous month, cutting the yearly increase to 0.7%, national statistics bureau Insee reported. The outcome showed the possibility of zero inflation, or even a period of deflation, creeping into euro-zone price levels later this year. (See retlated article.)
Insee also reported that an index measuring business confidence fell to 68 in February from 73 the previous month, bringing it to its lowest level since 1976. Economists had been expecting a more-modest fall to 70.
Italy's statistics agency, meanwhile, reported industrial orders fell by 15% in December from a year earlier, compared with a 26% drop in November.
The U.K., which isn't in the euro zone, reported contradictory economic news Friday. Seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.7% in January from the previous month after an upwardly revised 1.7% increase in December, according to the U.K. statistics office.
Economists had difficult squaring the reported increases with rising unemployment rising rapidly, tumbling home and asset prices and confidence at record lows. Underscoring that discrepancy, the U.K. council of mortgage lenders reported that the number of U.K. homes that were repossessed declined slightly in the fourth quarter, but the figure for 2008 as a whole soared to its highest level in 12 years.
