captain sparrow
Forumer storico
un grazie anche da parte mia a Myskin e Camaleonte per il loro prezioso contributo a questo tread.
Obbligazioni valute high yield CRISI RUSSIA/UCRAINA discussioni, notizie e operatività
Myskin
Forumer stoico
speriamo almeno di non portare rogna 
nuovi max per il rublo, il mercato si aspettava "di più" dalla banca centrale
https://it.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EURRUB=X
sulla crisi russia/ucraina si sono spese fiumi di parole...eccone altre
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-says-pushing-for-ukraine-peace-talks-as-soon-as-possible/513178.html
inutile dire che se non si siedono pure gli americani al tavolo delle trattative la faccenda non si schioda...e gli americani non sembrano tanto propensi a farlo (manco l'ucraina pare: a questo punto gli unici interessati sono i russi e noi
)
risultanze dell'incontro tra putin e modi (india)
http://www.narendramodi.in/PDF/list%20of%20documents.pdf
petrolio che tiene il supporto dei 60 $, gas in calo completano la giornata
nuovi max per il rublo, il mercato si aspettava "di più" dalla banca centrale
https://it.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EURRUB=X
sulla crisi russia/ucraina si sono spese fiumi di parole...eccone altre
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-says-pushing-for-ukraine-peace-talks-as-soon-as-possible/513178.html
inutile dire che se non si siedono pure gli americani al tavolo delle trattative la faccenda non si schioda...e gli americani non sembrano tanto propensi a farlo (manco l'ucraina pare: a questo punto gli unici interessati sono i russi e noi
)risultanze dell'incontro tra putin e modi (india)
http://www.narendramodi.in/PDF/list%20of%20documents.pdf
petrolio che tiene il supporto dei 60 $, gas in calo completano la giornata
camaleonte
Forumer storico
speriamo almeno di non portare rogna
nuovi max per il rublo, il mercato si aspettava "di più" dalla banca centrale
https://it.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EURRUB=X
sulla crisi russia/ucraina si sono spese fiumi di parole...eccone altre
Russia Says Pushing for Ukraine Peace Talks as Soon as Possible | News | The Moscow Times
inutile dire che se non si siedono pure gli americani al tavolo delle trattative la faccenda non si schioda...e gli americani non sembrano tanto propensi a farlo (manco l'ucraina pare: a questo punto gli unici interessati sono i russi e noi
risultanze dell'incontro tra putin e modi (india)
http://www.narendramodi.in/PDF/list%20of%20documents.pdf
petrolio che tiene il supporto dei 60 $, gas in calo completano la giornata
Ai soliti problemi che in parte conosciamo, secondo me non bisogna sottovalutare un altro grosso pericolo: la deflazione, qui
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-11/russell-napier-has-never-happened-without-drop-stock-prices
e qui:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-11/us-imports-most-deflation-japan-2010
Non c'è verso di farla risalire, rischiando di mettere nei guai il mondo intero e, tutto questo nonostante la svalutazione anche del $, recuperata in buona parte verso l'€. I salari sono più bassi o, non salgono, le tasse non si possono abbassare e le materie prime sono ai minimi termini e, se continueranno a scendere, la deflazione verrà amplificata. Se si aumentano i salari si riduce la competitività che significherebbe, calo delle vendite, dei consumi e dell'occupazione. Forse, se anzichè dare i soldi alle banche, comprassero materie prime, i prezzi risalirebbero e con loro anche l'inflazione. Riflessioni spicciole mentre preparo cena.
Myskin
Forumer stoico
oramai ogni intervento delle banche centrali mira a produrre illusioni, il QE è solo l'ultima della serie per contenere la deflazione...una serie di bolle che alimentano fughe in avanti salvo poi alla fine ritrovarsi in partenza, con i problemi irrisolti e, naturalmente, con le armi spuntate, con uno strumento inutile in mano.
Così dopo giap, usa, magari, non bastasse la riprova che non serve a nulla, ci proveremo noi, un annetto, due di bolla usando media e mondo finanziario per farci credere che "è cosa buona e giusta" poi tutto fatalmente sarà destinato a scoppiare (di nuovo)
Ultima modifica:
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
Russia: CBR lifted rate 100bp, leaving door open for more hikes
The 100bp rate hike was in line with Bloomberg consensus, but less than we expected (150bp)
The door for more hikes was left open, in case inflation risks increase
CBR polished its 1-year FX repo tool and considers a new FX-lending tool, which is positive
Yet, CBR’s speed in employing unconventional tools remains disappointing
The outlook on rates remains hostage of RUB stabilization, in our view, which remains uncertain—we provisionally forecast another 50bp hike at the January meeting
The CBR delivered a 100bp hike for a cumulative 500bp worth of hikes this year. The 100bp hike was in line with economists’ consensus (expectations varied from 0-250bp), but less than the 150bp that we expected. The market reaction was muted, judging by the weak price action in RUB post the decision. Increased inflation and devaluation expectations were used as justification for the hike, while financial stability concerns were not explicitly mentioned.
The CBR also left the door open for more rate hikes. The code phrase on policy outlook was changed to a more hawkish one, stating that increased inflation risks (read: RUB weakness) may lead to additional tightening.
Some good news on ‘dollar liquidity’. At a post-MPC press-conference, governor Nabiullina said that at the next 1-year FX repo auction, banks will be able to use Eurobonds as collateral—there was a technical difficulty which prevented this previously. This should increase the take up at the next auction, we expect. The CBR is also considering a new tool, FX-lending auctions with non-standard assets as collateral (bank FX-loans to corporates). The combined limit for the two instruments will remain at $50 billion, but we suspect that at initial stages banks will not have enough eligible collateral to hit that limit. Nabiullina also confirmed that the CBR will be persuading exporters to sell their export revenues on the market more evenly.
But no sense of urgency on the part of the CBR. The Governor mentioned that the Bank would be ready to implement non-orthodox measures in case situation deteriorates significantly, which perhaps suggest that current situation is not seen as bad enough by the CBR. A mild rate hike also suggests that the CBR remains in trial-and-error mode.
The outlook on the policy rate, in our, view remains a hostage of RUB stabilization, which in turn depends on CBR’s success in using FX-lending tools and restoring confidence. The news on FX-repo and potential new FX-lending instrument are positives signs in this respect, but CBR’s snail speed in implementing unconventional tools may keep market confidence low. We provisionally plug in another 50bp hike at January meeting, but see uncertainty around this call as very high.
New economic forecasts: more inflation, less growth. The CBR now expects inflation to end this year at around 10%, peak at above 10% in 1Q and slow to about 8% by end-2015. The profile looks plausible to us, although a shallow slowdown in inflation toward end of next year seems to contradict CBR’s expectations of substantial ruble appreciation next year. On growth, the CBR lowered its sights and sees near zero growth in the next two years. The CBR did not provide specific numbers for 2015 and 2016. Our average growth expectations for the period are similar, but we expect substantial variation in growth, from relatively deep recession in 2015 to recovery in 2016.
CBR’s outlook on balance of payments seems to contradict its positive view on the ruble. The CBR believes that the ruble is 10-20% below fair value now, with the underperformance driven by feverish demand on hard currency from population and “speculators”. That said, the CBR projects that it will have to use $70 billion from reserves to close the gap in the balance of payments next year, as current account surplus will not be enough to cover $120 billion in capital outflows. We find CBR’s estimate of the current account surplus at $50 bn quite conservative given the oil price assumption of $80/bbl in base case. The use of reserves may increase to $85 billion in a scenario of oil prices staying at $60/bbl, according to CBR.
Anatoliy A Shal (AC)
(7-495) 937-7321
[email protected]
J.P. Morgan Bank International LLC
The 100bp rate hike was in line with Bloomberg consensus, but less than we expected (150bp)
The door for more hikes was left open, in case inflation risks increase
CBR polished its 1-year FX repo tool and considers a new FX-lending tool, which is positive
Yet, CBR’s speed in employing unconventional tools remains disappointing
The outlook on rates remains hostage of RUB stabilization, in our view, which remains uncertain—we provisionally forecast another 50bp hike at the January meeting
The CBR delivered a 100bp hike for a cumulative 500bp worth of hikes this year. The 100bp hike was in line with economists’ consensus (expectations varied from 0-250bp), but less than the 150bp that we expected. The market reaction was muted, judging by the weak price action in RUB post the decision. Increased inflation and devaluation expectations were used as justification for the hike, while financial stability concerns were not explicitly mentioned.
The CBR also left the door open for more rate hikes. The code phrase on policy outlook was changed to a more hawkish one, stating that increased inflation risks (read: RUB weakness) may lead to additional tightening.
Some good news on ‘dollar liquidity’. At a post-MPC press-conference, governor Nabiullina said that at the next 1-year FX repo auction, banks will be able to use Eurobonds as collateral—there was a technical difficulty which prevented this previously. This should increase the take up at the next auction, we expect. The CBR is also considering a new tool, FX-lending auctions with non-standard assets as collateral (bank FX-loans to corporates). The combined limit for the two instruments will remain at $50 billion, but we suspect that at initial stages banks will not have enough eligible collateral to hit that limit. Nabiullina also confirmed that the CBR will be persuading exporters to sell their export revenues on the market more evenly.
But no sense of urgency on the part of the CBR. The Governor mentioned that the Bank would be ready to implement non-orthodox measures in case situation deteriorates significantly, which perhaps suggest that current situation is not seen as bad enough by the CBR. A mild rate hike also suggests that the CBR remains in trial-and-error mode.
The outlook on the policy rate, in our, view remains a hostage of RUB stabilization, which in turn depends on CBR’s success in using FX-lending tools and restoring confidence. The news on FX-repo and potential new FX-lending instrument are positives signs in this respect, but CBR’s snail speed in implementing unconventional tools may keep market confidence low. We provisionally plug in another 50bp hike at January meeting, but see uncertainty around this call as very high.
New economic forecasts: more inflation, less growth. The CBR now expects inflation to end this year at around 10%, peak at above 10% in 1Q and slow to about 8% by end-2015. The profile looks plausible to us, although a shallow slowdown in inflation toward end of next year seems to contradict CBR’s expectations of substantial ruble appreciation next year. On growth, the CBR lowered its sights and sees near zero growth in the next two years. The CBR did not provide specific numbers for 2015 and 2016. Our average growth expectations for the period are similar, but we expect substantial variation in growth, from relatively deep recession in 2015 to recovery in 2016.
CBR’s outlook on balance of payments seems to contradict its positive view on the ruble. The CBR believes that the ruble is 10-20% below fair value now, with the underperformance driven by feverish demand on hard currency from population and “speculators”. That said, the CBR projects that it will have to use $70 billion from reserves to close the gap in the balance of payments next year, as current account surplus will not be enough to cover $120 billion in capital outflows. We find CBR’s estimate of the current account surplus at $50 bn quite conservative given the oil price assumption of $80/bbl in base case. The use of reserves may increase to $85 billion in a scenario of oil prices staying at $60/bbl, according to CBR.
Anatoliy A Shal (AC)
(7-495) 937-7321
[email protected]
J.P. Morgan Bank International LLC
qquebec
Super Moderator
Russia affronterà grosse difficoltà in 2015 (Fitch)
MILANO (MF-DJ)--L'odierno rialzo dei tassi di interesse da parte della Banca centrale russa, insufficiente a risollevare le sorti del rublo che ha anzi aggiornato i minimi storici contro euro e dollaro, sottolinea le difficoltà affrontate dai policy maker, derivanti dal rialzo dell'inflazione e dal crollo della valuta di Mosca. Lo sottolineano gli analisti di Fitch, secondo i quali questi problemi peggioreranno nel corso del 2015 in quanto l'economia si deteriorerà ancora di più, i rischi al ribasso aumenteranno e l'indice dei prezzi al consumo mostrerà una crescita a doppia cifra. Fitch stima che una contrazione del Pil russo dell'1,5% nel 2015 mentre prevede zero crescita nel 2016. Gli analisti hanno un rating pari a BBB con outlook negativo sulla Russia.
MILANO (MF-DJ)--L'odierno rialzo dei tassi di interesse da parte della Banca centrale russa, insufficiente a risollevare le sorti del rublo che ha anzi aggiornato i minimi storici contro euro e dollaro, sottolinea le difficoltà affrontate dai policy maker, derivanti dal rialzo dell'inflazione e dal crollo della valuta di Mosca. Lo sottolineano gli analisti di Fitch, secondo i quali questi problemi peggioreranno nel corso del 2015 in quanto l'economia si deteriorerà ancora di più, i rischi al ribasso aumenteranno e l'indice dei prezzi al consumo mostrerà una crescita a doppia cifra. Fitch stima che una contrazione del Pil russo dell'1,5% nel 2015 mentre prevede zero crescita nel 2016. Gli analisti hanno un rating pari a BBB con outlook negativo sulla Russia.
Myskin
Forumer stoico
composizione del debito estero della federazione russa
Currency Composition of External Debt of the Russian Federation | Bank of Russia
Currency Composition of External Debt of the Russian Federation | Bank of Russia
camaleonte
Forumer storico
Buongiorno a tutti.
La russa Gazprom vuole alzare nazionali prezzi del gas come Ruble Plunge Hits Margini"
Russia's Gazprom Wants to Raise Domestic Gas Prices as Ruble Plunge Hits Margins | Business | The Moscow Times
La russa Gazprom vuole alzare nazionali prezzi del gas come Ruble Plunge Hits Margini"
Russia's Gazprom Wants to Raise Domestic Gas Prices as Ruble Plunge Hits Margins | Business | The Moscow Times
camaleonte
Forumer storico
L'Europa è la nuova 'zona di instabilità'
Macchinazioni americane per evitare una più stretta integrazione Eurasia sono favoreggiamento caos"
Russian news: - Russia Insider
Macchinazioni americane per evitare una più stretta integrazione Eurasia sono favoreggiamento caos"
Russian news: - Russia Insider
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