Moody's stima che nell'area EMEA (Europa, Medio Oriente ed Africa), nonostante le massicce emissioni di bond corporate delle ultime settimane, la situazione della liquidità degli emittenti rimane incerta sul versante dell'accesso ai mercati per il funding.
In considerazione di scadenze sul debito per 615 mld USD equivalenti nei prossimi 12 mesi, e valutato anche il fabbisogno di liquidità non legato alla maturazione del debito, Moody's stima che il 20% degli emittenti HY ed il 14% degli emittenti IG non disporranno delle risorse occorrenti a fare fronte alle necessarie uscite di cassa.
Moody's: Liquidity remains fragile for EMEA corporates despite significant bond issuance
Paris, June 16, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service says that, as the global financial crisis continues, the availability of reliable external funding continues to be a question mark for many corporate issuers in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA). The report, "Corporate issuers in EMEA: Liquidity remains fragile," expresses (i) Moody's assessment of the adequacy of the liquidity profiles of 471 EMEA-based non-financial corporate issuers, and (ii) an overview of the next 12 months' refunding needs and recent trends observed in the bond and bank markets.
"Despite significant bond issuance volumes since the beginning of the year, liquidity remains fragile for corporate issuers in EMEA," says Jean-Michel Carayon, a Senior Vice President in Moody's Corporate Finance Group. "The sustainability and availability of bond markets, particularly for issuers at the lower end of the rating scale, still must be proven, while bank lending activity continues to be dislocated."
The next 12 months' total debt maturities are estimated to be around USD615 billion. Moody's expects that around 14% of investment-grade issuers and 20% of speculative-grade issuers will not have sufficient internal and external committed liquidity sources to cover their next 12 months' cash outflows, including but not limited to debt maturities.
"While some corporates have been able to successfully mitigate weakening operating cash flows, this is likely to be more challenging for others, particularly as economic prospects are expected to remain weak at least for the remainder of 2009," explains Sabine Renner, an Analyst in Moody's Corporate Finance Group. "While a continuation of the recent bond market activity helps mitigate -- at least to some extent -- liquidity pressures stemming from bank market stress and cash flow shortfalls, uncertainty will remain elevated until economic and financial conditions fully recover."
In the current environment, liquidity, which has always been a consideration in Moody's credit analysis for corporate issuers, remains a key concern and rating driver for non-financial issuers in EMEA. As near-term liquidity concerns can trump longer-term fundamentals, credit quality and ratings may come under pressure for companies that have liquidity uncertainties, particularly at the low end of the rating scale. While a temporary shortfall in maintaining 12 months of forward liquidity may not always translate into a rating action, negative pressure is likely to arise from a sustainable lack of liquidity.