Continuiamo a seguire il trend in ascesa del default rate. In Europa siamo passati dal 4,5% di aprile al 4,9% di maggio, negli USA dal 9,3% di aprile al 10,25 di maggio e worldwide dall'8,3% di aprile al 9,2% di maggio.
Nei primi 5 mesi del 2009, sono defaultati 141 emittenti, contro i 30 dei primi 5 mesi del 2008.
Più interessante è l'ennesima revisione al ribasso del picco del default rate, che per Moody's si raggiungerà nell'ultimo trimestre 2009 a quota 17,9% per gli emittenti europei e a quota 13,5% per gli USA.
Fatto il picco di ciclo, il default rate dovrebbe poi calare, sempre secondo Moody's, aattestandosi quota 15,8% e 6,7% rispettivamente per gli emittenti europei e quelli USA a maggio 2010. Globalmente, picco al 13,8% nell'ultimo trimestre del 2009 e calo all'8% a maggio 2010.
Un altro segnale positivo è un ulteriore calo del distressed rate passato dal 51,8% al 42,8% da aprile a maggio... rammento che i bond HY distressed hanno statisticamente il 50% di possibilità di defaultare nei 24 mesi e che la loro condizione consiste in un rendimento eccedente i 1000 pb rispetto a quelli dei titoli di stato della valuta di riferimento di pari caratteristiche (per l'Euro, i TdS tedeschi).
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Moody's: European spec-grade defaults increase slightly in May[/FONT]
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Global and US default rates also rise [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]New York, June 04, 2009 -- The European speculative-grade default rate increased to 4.9% in May 2009 from 4.5% in April, says Moody's Investors Service in its monthly default report. On an annual comparison, the rate increased considerably, from 1.0% in May 2008. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Similarly, the US rate rose to 10.2% in May 2009 from 9.3% in April (and from 2.2% in May 2008). The global rate also continued its upward path in May, rising to 9.2% from April's level of 8.3%. A year ago, the global default rate stood at only 1.9%. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"A total of 29 Moody's-rated corporate debt issuers defaulted in May, which increases the year-to-date default count to 141. In comparison, only 30 defaults were recorded in the first five months last year. Across regions, 23 of the month's 29 defaults were by North American issuers while European companies accounted for another two," says Kenneth Emery, Moody's Director of Corporate Default Research. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Measured on a dollar volume basis, the European speculative-grade bond default rate edged downwards to 4.0% in May from 4.4% (revised) in April. "The decline in the rate was mainly driven by a May 2008 defaulter moving out of the trailing 12-month window," explains Mr. Emery. Last year, Moody's notes that the European dollar-weighted default rate was much lower, at only 0.6%. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]By comparison, in the US, the dollar-weighted speculative-grade bond default rate stood at 14.8% in May, up from April's revised level of 14.3%. The comparable rate was 1.3% in May 2008. Globally, the dollar-weighted speculative-grade bond default rate rose to 13.3% in May from 12.9% (revised) in April. A year ago, the global speculative-grade bond default rate was 1.2%. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's distressed index improved to 42.8% at the end of May 2009 from April's revised level of 51.8%. A year ago, however, the index was considerably lower, at 15.8%. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]In the leveraged loan market, a total of 15 Moody's-rated loan defaulters were recorded in May 2009; all but one (Luxembourg-based Hayes Lemmerz Finance-Luxembourg S.A.) were North American issuers. Last year, only four loan issuers defaulted in May; all of which were North American issuers. The trailing 12-month US leveraged loan default rate rose to 7.3% in May from 6.4% in April. A year ago, the loan default rate stood at 1.9%. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"Going forward, Moody's default rate forecasting model predicts that the European speculative-grade default rate will peak at 17.9% in the fourth quarter of 2009, while the US rate is set to increase to 13.5%," says Mr. Emery. A year from now, the European and US default rates are expected to be 15.8% and 6.7%, respectively. Globally, the rating agency forecasts a speculative-grade default rate of 8.0% in May 2010, with a peak of 13.8% being reached in Q4 2009. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Across industries over the coming year, Moody's expects default rates to be highest in the Durable Consumer Goods sector in Europe and the Automotive sector in the US. [/FONT]
