Dopo il rally degli ultimi sei mesi dei bond HY, qualcuno comincia a porsi la domanda se i rendimenti, ai prezzi correnti, non siano troppo tirati... altri sono più ottimisti, ma sostengono che il momento dei grossi guadagni (ma anche dei grossi rischi, verrebbe da dire) sia dietro le spalle.
Vedremo come andrà, forse uno storno significativo è nelle corde di questo comparto dell'obbligazionario e qualcuno postula un -5% o un -10%. Non così gli investitori USA, che continuano a gettonare con convinzione i fondi obbligazionari specializzati, con inflows robusti in tali fondi registratisi ad aprile e a maggio 2009.
Statisticamente, lo spazio di salita vi sarebbe ancora, fanno notare gli ottimisti, che rilevano come il valore nella fascia alta dei 70/100 (attorno a 78, avevo visto altrove di recente) dei bond HY nel Merrill Index, sebbene molto superiore al minimo di 56,80/100 registrato a dicembre 2008, risulti di gran lunga inferiore alla media storica di questo indice che vede prezzi attorno ai 91/100 (ed è tuttavia, va aggiunto, un indice vecchio di qualche anno, che non incorpora nelle medie storiche crisi come l'attuale).
Una ipotesi più prudente vedrebbe appunto un calo estivo in misura del 5-10%, seguito da un recupero a dicembre, in concomitanza con il consolidarsi delle aspettative di ripresa economica.
Dal WSI online....
JULY 7, 2009 High-Yield Heyday Has Mostly Passed
But Funds' Returns Won't Be Terrible
High-yield bond funds are enjoying a bumper year, with returns above 20%. But while investors are pouring in billions of dollars, it is likely they have missed the best returns.
High-yield bond funds were up 23% in the first half of the year, according to figures from Morningstar Inc. The high-yield market has seen monthly yields at 18-year highs since October.
But while the numbers are impressive, fund managers say the coming months should see returns fall to more normal levels.
'A Huge Rally'
"There's been a huge rally in high-yield, with everyone repricing out the depression scenario," said Fred Hoff, manager of Fidelity High Income Fund.
Mr. Hoff's fund was up 26% in the first six months of the year. "I don't think we're going to double that return this year, though [it] should be very nice," he said.
Average yield on the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index, a high-yield benchmark index, peaked at 21.7% in November. From October through April, yields were above 15% each month. The last time yields topped 15% was March 1991.
But monthly yields have fallen each month since February, as fears of high default rates subside. Yields were down to 13% in June, lower than recent levels but still at historic highs.
High-yield funds saw monthly net outflows until December, according to research firm Lipper Inc., including $106 million of net outflows in November. But in the six months through May, net inflows peaked in April, at $4 billion -- the highest net inflows since April 2003. May saw $3.3 billion of net inflows.
Last Year's Yields Are Gone
The question is whether investors, who have started jumping into high-yield funds, realize that the yields seen late last year and early this year are likely a thing of the past.
"Anybody with outsized expectations is likely to be disappointed," said Jeff Tjornehoj, senior research analyst at Lipper. "There have been some fantastic returns, but those were historical high marks. It's unlikely we'll see those again."
Still, Bill Eigen, manager of J.P. Morgan Strategic Income Opportunities Fund, said that while the high-yield bond market has recovered and yields are coming down, "high-quality, high-yield still has room to run."
Mr. Eigen pointed to data that showed the average dollar price of bonds, which reflects how much investors are paying for bonds in relation to $100 face value, on the Merrill index currently trading in the high $70 range.
While that is higher than the record-low $56.80 average seen in December, it remains at historically low levels. The long-term dollar average for high-yield bonds is $91, he said.
Mr. Eigen said that while he expects high-yield default rates to rise from the current single digits into the teens, the bonds still represent attractive values.
Room for Upside
Lawrence Jones, senior mutual fund analyst at Morningstar, said that some high-yield managers have told him yields could rise in the next few months as institutional investors seek to cash in their gains and the market fundamentals are strained by a flailing economic recovery.
Lipper's Mr. Tjornehoj said that while yields could rise in the summer, he expects them to come down later in the year, when the economic recovery is in full swing.
Morningstar recommends Pimco High Yield Fund (ticker symbol: PHDAX), which was up 17.4% during the first half, and T. Rowe Price High-Yield Fund (PRHYX), which was up 25.3%.
Mr. Jones said that while not recommended by Morningstar, he likes Harbor High-Yield Bond Fund (HYFAX), partly because it has a very defensive strategy. The fund was down 13.7% last year, beating 98% of funds in its category, and was up 14.1% as of June 30.
"While I expect some fits and starts in high-yield -- including the possibility of a 5% to 10% loss over the short term -- I still like high yield," given the rewards on offer, Mr. Eigen said.