Derivati, futures e certificati, sugli indici e commodities - Cap. 1
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J.SPARWASSER
Adonai
Something rare and potentially very dangerous is happening in the market right now. And if history is any indication, it could spell short-term pain.
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The S&P 500 has closed above its five-day moving average for 20 consecutive days. That has only happened just three times before in the last two decades.
Now, here’s the sad part: Four weeks after each of one those streaks came to an end, the S&P 500 was down, for an average loss of 3 percent. That’s according to a recent study by Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Partners.
What’s more, the S&P 500 has had just seven prior streaks above its five-day moving average lasting 18 days or more. And those, too, also averaged losses four and six weeks after ending.
(Watch: Wal-Mart helps lift Dow industrials to record finish)
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Does that mean there will be bad news for stocks soon?
“The last time we saw a decline like we saw in October, which was about 9 percent, was back in September to November 2012,” Krinsky said. “To recover 12 percent off the lows took 49 trading days. We just rallied 12 percent off the lows in 19 trading days. So the ascent of the rally has been rather remarkable.”
(Read: Asian markets seen higher on Wall Street lead; oil in focus)
And because the five-day moving average is such a short-term indicator, the fact that the S&P 500 has remained above it for four weeks makes the rally so remarkable and unusual, he said.
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But with Thursday’s close at 2,039.33, the S&P 500 is extremely close to hitting an important level, according to Krinsky. “We’re pushing against a pretty good area of resistance around 2,040,” he said.
If that resistance holds, heforesees the index returning towardan area between 1,970 and 1,980, roughly 3 percent lower from current prices.
That’s not enough to worry Krinsky, however. “Nothing too concerning,” he said. “But risk/reward from this level seems to favor the downside.”
.
The S&P 500 has closed above its five-day moving average for 20 consecutive days. That has only happened just three times before in the last two decades.
Now, here’s the sad part: Four weeks after each of one those streaks came to an end, the S&P 500 was down, for an average loss of 3 percent. That’s according to a recent study by Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Partners.
What’s more, the S&P 500 has had just seven prior streaks above its five-day moving average lasting 18 days or more. And those, too, also averaged losses four and six weeks after ending.
(Watch: Wal-Mart helps lift Dow industrials to record finish)
.
Does that mean there will be bad news for stocks soon?
“The last time we saw a decline like we saw in October, which was about 9 percent, was back in September to November 2012,” Krinsky said. “To recover 12 percent off the lows took 49 trading days. We just rallied 12 percent off the lows in 19 trading days. So the ascent of the rally has been rather remarkable.”
(Read: Asian markets seen higher on Wall Street lead; oil in focus)
And because the five-day moving average is such a short-term indicator, the fact that the S&P 500 has remained above it for four weeks makes the rally so remarkable and unusual, he said.
.
But with Thursday’s close at 2,039.33, the S&P 500 is extremely close to hitting an important level, according to Krinsky. “We’re pushing against a pretty good area of resistance around 2,040,” he said.
If that resistance holds, heforesees the index returning towardan area between 1,970 and 1,980, roughly 3 percent lower from current prices.
That’s not enough to worry Krinsky, however. “Nothing too concerning,” he said. “But risk/reward from this level seems to favor the downside.”
EURODEFAULT
SHORT FINE DI MONDO
Putin avverte OBAMA il petrolio Russo non verra piu venduto in dollari..se continui a scassare la minkia.......stavolta i rikkioni se li fa
....se succede è SCIOTT FINE DI MONDO il dollaro va a puttannazze
Since no decision has been made yet, it looks like Rosneft hasn’t convinced anyone.
- You know, in the context of my visit to China, Rosneft is arranging an agreement with a major Chinese corporation on getting a 10% stake in the Vankor oilfield project. Along with the stake, the Chinese will get seats on the board of directors. But we are also making arrangements on selling oil from that deposit for the yuans. The amounts to be sold are really big. In this situation, our Chinese partners will be prepared to issue loans and to finance many transactions. Secondly, we’re moving away from the diktat of the market that denominates all the commercial oil flows in US dollars. We’re boosting as much as possible the use of national currencies – both the ruble and the yuan. Thirdly, this will additionally stabilize corporate finances.
http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/759665
c è ne anche per i teteschi
Our joint work with the Federal Republic of Germany maintains some 300,000 jobs there. If there are no contracts, these jobs may be lost. True, some new bearings can be found, but it still remains to be seen what these bearings are. It is not so easy.
....se succede è SCIOTT FINE DI MONDO il dollaro va a puttannazzeSince no decision has been made yet, it looks like Rosneft hasn’t convinced anyone.
- You know, in the context of my visit to China, Rosneft is arranging an agreement with a major Chinese corporation on getting a 10% stake in the Vankor oilfield project. Along with the stake, the Chinese will get seats on the board of directors. But we are also making arrangements on selling oil from that deposit for the yuans. The amounts to be sold are really big. In this situation, our Chinese partners will be prepared to issue loans and to finance many transactions. Secondly, we’re moving away from the diktat of the market that denominates all the commercial oil flows in US dollars. We’re boosting as much as possible the use of national currencies – both the ruble and the yuan. Thirdly, this will additionally stabilize corporate finances.
http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/759665
c è ne anche per i teteschi
Our joint work with the Federal Republic of Germany maintains some 300,000 jobs there. If there are no contracts, these jobs may be lost. True, some new bearings can be found, but it still remains to be seen what these bearings are. It is not so easy.
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J.SPARWASSER
Adonai
I preziosi stan volando
EURODEFAULT
SHORT FINE DI MONDO
lovis
Forumer attivo
ciao a tutti gli amici del forum,,,alla veneranda età di 53 anni, umile artigiano senza lavoro dato i miei giovani trascorsi in svizzera, dall'abruzzo mi sono trasferito da solo a berna per lavorare per 90 giorni, nn c'è bisogno del permesso di lavoro,rinnovabile,,,,
x xinian,,,, sto indagando sul referendum e diciamo che al solito a loro nn interessa una mazza,,, ma sono molto integralisti perciò......nn sisa mai,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,conoscendoli,,,
come posso dalla pensione dove alloggio la sera vi leggo,,, ma tra cucinare ed altro.........
x xinian,,,, sto indagando sul referendum e diciamo che al solito a loro nn interessa una mazza,,, ma sono molto integralisti perciò......nn sisa mai,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,conoscendoli,,,
come posso dalla pensione dove alloggio la sera vi leggo,,, ma tra cucinare ed altro.........
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EURODEFAULT
SHORT FINE DI MONDO
vedrai che ci rimarrai .....Itaglia è letteralmente e semplicemente un paese di mierda se ti costringe ..ci costringe ad emigrare a mezza eta il colosseo dovrebbero riaprilo ma con i leoni e dentro tutto il parlamento
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J.SPARWASSER
Adonai
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