ISDA to Publish Auction Terms for General Motors
NEW YORK, Monday, June 1, 2009 – The International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. (ISDA) today announced that its Americas Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee resolved that a bankruptcy credit event occurred in respect of General Motors Corporation, one of the world's largest automakers.
The Committee also voted to hold an auction for General Motors Corporation.
http://www.isda.org/press/press060109.html
Please note that the auction is scheduled for Friday June 12.
http://www.isda.org/companies/gm/gm.html
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per curiosità ho dato un'occhiata alla richiesta di vendita sotto 363 (per gli aspetti procedurali).
Se qualcuno fosse interessato, contiene anche informazioni sulla NuovaGM. In prima approssimazione (ma consiglio di controllare, è stata una scorsa molto veloce):
http://d38e0yhv9tix0p.cloudfront.net/pdflib/pleading_1.pdf
la nuova GM avrà circa 550.000.000 di azioni (560.000.000 se sarà necessario assegnare 10.000.000 di azioni in più alla categoria di creditori cui appartengono i BH).
A spanne, ammesso (e credo che non sarà vero...) che solo i BH fossero beneficiari delle azioni (il famoso 10%) riservato a quella categoria di creditori, sarebbero circa 18 (diciotto) azioni ogni 10.000$ di bond, valore nominale.
Il totale delle azioni per questa fascia di creditori è 50.000.000 o appunto 60.000.000 con il rinforzino, se necessario.
Esistono poi un mare di preferred e preferred perpetual (circa 360.000.000...)
Il Canada avrà 58 milioni di azioni più 16 milioni di preferred, gli USA 304 milioni di azioni e 84 milioni di preferred, il new VEBA 87,5 milioni di azioni e 260 milioni di preferred.
L'eventuale strike dei warrant sembrerebbe a $ 27 circa, e $ 54 circa, ma non ci farei un grosso affidamento su questa stima fatta a spanne.
Una buona notizia sui warrant: sono di più di quelli che stimavo, per effetto immagino di un calcolo più corretto del mio. Per i BH sono 45.454.545 (@ 27$) + 45.454.454 (@ 54$). Più quelli asegnati a new VEBA (15.151.515).
un post interessante, ma lungo, sulla storia GM:
http://keithhennessey.com/2009/06/01/understanding-the-gm-bankruptcy/
So can GM survive, and for how long? Can they profit and flourish, as the President suggests they will?
- The Administration and GM argue that a restructured GM can break even in a national market of only 10m vehicles sold in America each year. (We’re now around 9.5m/year. “Normal” is around 16m/year.) If accurate, this is astonishing. This would appear to address all three of the bullets under revenues. Addressed? I’m skeptical. I need to review the assumptions in GM’s new plan, especially about market share.
- I have seen no evidence that GM and UAW have reduced significantly GM’s ongoing labor costs to be competitive with the transplants. Maybe I have missed it. Unaddressed.
- Productivity is still lower in U.S. plants of U.S. firms that it is in U.S. plants of foreign-based firms. As a result of high compensation costs per worker and low productivity, it appears that labor cost per vehicle produced will still be uncompetitive with the transplants. Unaddressed.
- GM’s dealer network is being dramatically reduced. Addressed.
- The CAFE and emissions requirements are even more burdensome than predicted, but now have at least some degree of stability, given the national standards. On net, worse than before.
- The balance sheets will be relieved of enormous debt and legacy health and pension obligations. Addressed.
In the
term sheet for the December loan we (the Bush Administration) made to General Motors, we set out “targets,” which we took directly from the Corker amendment offered the week prior on the Senate floor:
- Reduce outstanding unsecured debt by not less than 2/3 through conversion into equity or other debt;
- “Reduce the total amount of compensation, including wages and benefits, paid to their U.S. employees so that, by no later than December 31, 2009, the average of such total amount, per hour and per person, is an amount that is competitive with the average total amount of such compensation, as certified by the Secretary of Labor, paid per hour and per person to employees of Nissan Motor Company, Toyota Motor Corporation, or American Honda Motor Company whose site of employment is in the United States.”
- Eliminate the jobs bank.
- Apply work rules no later than 12/31/09 “in a manner that is competitive with Nissan … Toyota or Honda in the U.S.”
- Not less than half of their VEBA payment should be in the form of stock.
As best I can tell:
- They more than accomplished target #1.
- They did little to nothing on #2. I have seen no evidence that compensation of current workers has been changed. UAW Chief Ron Gettelfinger claimed in a message to his members, “For our active members these tentative changes mean no loss in your base hourly pay, no reduction in your health care, and no reduction in pensions.” Maybe there’s a distinction between this statement and “total compensation.” If so, it would be great if someone could help me understand this. But it appears GM and UAW did nothing to address target #2.
- UAW agreed to #3 in late March.
- They made no apparent progress on target #4. I have neither seen nor heard evidence that the work rules have been relaxed. I am happy to be corrected.
- They accomplished #5.
