Obbligazioni societarie GM, Ford, Chrysler: il 3D dell'automotive USA (2 lettori)

albicocco

Forumer storico
Leggo nell'offerta:
Concurrently with the exchange offers, GM is soliciting consents from noteholders to amend the terms of the debt instruments that govern each series of notes and insert a call option to redeem the non-USD notes.
Ma perchè devono inserire la call? Dove sta l'ennesima fregatura?
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Leggo nell'offerta:
Concurrently with the exchange offers, GM is soliciting consents from noteholders to amend the terms of the debt instruments that govern each series of notes and insert a call option to redeem the non-USD notes.
Ma perchè devono inserire la call? Dove sta l'ennesima fregatura?

Credo sia una tecnicalità: evidentemente, nei Prospetti che disciplinano i programmi di emissione c'erano clausole che impedivano alcune operazioni collegate alla offerta attuale, per cui si chiede contestualmente di emendarle.

Può darsi poi che, in caso di accettazione dell'offerta da parte delle maggioranze di debitori, vogliano riservarsi la possibilità di richiamare per il residuo i bond in valute diverse dall'USD (se così fosse, e ammesso che lo swap vada in porto e che si sia fatto holdout, non sarebbe una cattiva notizia).

Il punto è che più precise indicazioni su questi aspetti saranno contenute nella versione completa dell'offerta, assai più ampia della sua presentazione (il documento già conosciuto a noi) e che tale versione completa non è detto che sia resa disponibile ai non qualified holders.

Ove invece lo fosse, se qualcuno posta un link, si può provare ad approfondire... ;)
 

Gaudente

Forumer storico
un'offerta infame...

...non tanto per la sua esiguita' (circa il 7% del capitale in azioni+ il rateo in contanti) quanto per la scarsa trasparenza: si fa credere al bondista retail che le azioni abbiano il valore attualmente pilotato in Borsa su una capitalizzazione di 1,4 miliardi di pezzi, quando post swap le azioni saranno 60 miliardi.
E' in questi momenti che vorrei tanto poter credere a quella bischerata buddista del karma e della reincarnazione per questi lercioni faccia da qulo :wall::down:
 

Imark

Forumer storico
...non tanto per la sua esiguita' (circa il 7% del capitale in azioni+ il rateo in contanti) quanto per la scarsa trasparenza: si fa credere al bondista retail che le azioni abbiano il valore attualmente pilotato in Borsa su una capitalizzazione di 1,4 miliardi di pezzi, quando post swap le azioni saranno 60 miliardi.
E' in questi momenti che vorrei tanto poter credere a quella bischerata buddista del karma e della reincarnazione per questi lercioni faccia da qulo :wall::down:

E infatti si era detto con Paolo che era a presa per i fondelli... di là c'è gente che ha stimato recuperi sul 50% del nominale per effetto dell'adesione allo swap.... magari... in realtà sono caduti nel trappolone ... :D ;)
 

paologorgo

Chapter 11
E' in questi momenti che vorrei tanto poter credere a quella bischerata buddista del karma e della reincarnazione per questi lercioni faccia da qulo :wall::down:

io ci credo, e non vedo l'ora di reincarnarmi in uno di loro... :D :lol:

Link here. Perusing the bondholder pillaging plan now. Looks like GM is being nationalized (at least U.S. getting majority stake). [Emphasis mine.]

Summary:

- U.S. would get 51% pro forma stake with debt conversion
- Bondholders would represent 10% of new pro forma stock
- Existing common stock would represent 1% of new pro forma stock
- Pro forma stock to be issued for VEBA, U.S. Treasury - 31.2 billion
- Bondholders get 225 shares of stock for every $1,000 in bonds, parallel with humongous dilution
- Debt to be cut at least $20 billion between debt conversion/VEBA action
- If tender is not agreed to, company files bankruptcy

Amusing snippet from the S-4: when the administration tells you that you are too optimistic, you know you have a problem:
A statement released by the U.S. government with respect to the President’s Designee’s viability determination (the “Viability Determination Statement”) indicated that while many factors had been considered when assessing viability, the most fundamental benchmark that a business must meet to be considered viable was its ability—after accounting for spending on research and development and capital expenditures necessary to maintain and enhance its competitive position—to generate positive cash flow and earn an adequate return on capital over the course of a normal business cycle. The Viability Determination Statement noted that our Viability Plan assumed that we would continue to experience negative free cash flow (before financing, but after legacy obligations) through the projection period specified in our Viability Plan, thus failing this fundamental test for viability.

The Viability Determination Statement noted that we were in the early stages of an operational turnaround in which we had made material progress in a number of areas, including purchasing, product design, manufacturing, brand rationalization and dealer network. However, the Viability Determination Statement also indicated that it was important to recognize that a great deal of additional progress needed to be made, and that our plan was based on, in its view, assumptions that would be challenging in the absence of a more aggressive restructuring, including assumptions with respect to market share, price, brands and dealers, product mix and cash needs associated with legacy liabilities. In this regard, the Viability Determination Statement noted that:

  • our plan contemplated that each of our restructuring initiatives will continue well into the future, in some cases until 2014, before they are complete and it concluded that “the slow pace at which [the] turnaround is progressing undermines [GM’s] ability to compete against large, highly capable and well-funded competitors”;
  • “given the slow pace of the turnaround, the assumptions in GM’s business plan are too optimistic”; and
  • even under “optimistic assumptions [GM] [will] remain breakeven, at best, on a free cash flow basis through the projection period, thus failing the fundamental test of viability.”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/133353-gm-s-bondholder-pillaging-plan
 

stockuccio

Guest
la spingono su, i grossi vendono, AIG integra, rimangono i piccoli ... magari finisce che anche l'iperattiva Goldman fa qualche spicciolo pure con GM :(:(

sinceramente dubito che questo swap passerà ... mi sembra solo un modo per continuare a rubare

la storia la fanno durare ancora

l'unica cosa certa sono i 21000 a spasso
 

paologorgo

Chapter 11
NEW YORK, April 27 (Reuters) - Beleaguered U.S. automaker General Motors Corp.'s (GM.N) bid to reduce its debt with a bond exchange offer is destined to fail, an analyst at credit research firm KDP Investment Advisors, Inc. said on Monday.
GM is facing a June 1 deadline to come up with a plan to make deep reductions in debt, labor costs, dealership network and brands to return to profitability.
The company is almost certain to miss that deadline, wrote Kip Penniman, analyst at KDP in a research note.
"We believe GM will enter bankruptcy protection on June 1, 2009," he wrote in the note, entitled "GM's debt exchange will fail."
In a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission, the company said earlier on Monday it is offering to issue 225 shares of its common stock for each $1,000 principal of notes and to pay cash for accrued interest. GM said bondholders would hold about 10 percent of the company after a successful exchange offer.
"Terms of the offer are even less attractive than we envisioned on several fronts," Penniman wrote.
The 10 percent ownership stake the company has offered to bondholders "is even less than we expected from GM," Penniman wrote, adding that this represents half a penny for each $1,000 worth of unsecured debt.
"The government has mandated that 90 percent of bondholders must exchange their debt," he wrote. This "indicates to us that the offer is designed to fail from the start. In our opinion, there is no chance that GM will get anywhere near that participation rate," he wrote.
GM's bonds and shares firmed from very depressed levels after the company gave the terms of the bond exchange it is offering earlier on Monday.
A GM bond which matures in January 2011 last traded at 12.88 cents on the dollar, up from 9.5 cents on Friday afternoon, according to MarketAxess.
GM's shares (GM.N) rose about 21 percent to $2.05 on Monday.
(Reporting by John Parry)

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2746387520090427?rpc=44
 

paologorgo

Chapter 11
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp. bondholders find the automaker’s offer to exchange their $27 billion in debt for equity unlikely to succeed, according to a person familiar with the committee representing creditors.
That’s because the offer by GM, the biggest U.S. automaker, treats bondholders worse than other claimants, such as unions, said the person, who declined to be identified because the discussions are private. At least 90 percent in principal amount of the notes must be exchanged by June 1 to satisfy the U.S. Treasury and avert a bankruptcy, GM said today in a statement.
Bondholders are being asked to swap all their claims for 10 percent of the equity in the reorganized company. The offer is contingent on cutting at least half of GM’s $20.4 billion of obligations to a United Auto Workers retiree-medical fund, known as a Voluntary Employee Beneficiary Association, through a debt- for-equity exchange that would give the VEBA as much as 39 percent of common stock in the Detroit-based carmaker.
“This is an offer that’s designed to fail,” said Kip Penniman, an analyst at fixed-income research firm KDP Investment Advisors in Montpelier, Vermont. “To get 90 percent of them to agree to such a deal where there’s no cash, no other debt and pure equity while leaving the union VEBA arrangement unchanged from previous considerations is absurd.”
Government Aid
GM has received $15.4 billion in government aid and is trying to prove it’s viable, a U.S. requirement to keep the federal loans. The original loan terms called for GM to slash two-thirds of its bonds through an exchange offer and for the VEBA to reduce a cash contribution to $10.2 billion from $20.4 billion.
The bondholder committee, whose members include San Mateo, California-based Franklin Resources Inc. and Loomis Sayles & Co. of Boston, hasn’t yet come up with a formal response and expects to try to negotiate a better offer, the person said. The committee has been in contact with about 100 institutions representing about $12 billion of GM bonds, according to the person.
GM bondholders may fare worse in bankruptcy, according to Shelly Lombard, an analyst in Montclair, New Jersey for bond research firm Gimme Credit LLC.
“You have a gun being put to your head saying that if you don’t take this, we have something that’s even worse for you,” Lombard said. “It looks like a raw deal for bondholders. I just don’t think they have the negotiating leverage to get anything better than what’s currently on the table.”
Bonds Rise
GM’s $3 billion of 8.375 percent bonds due in 2033 rose 2 cents to 10.75 cents on the dollar as of 12:03 p.m. in New York, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting systems of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The debt yields about 77 percent.
Bondholders will be given 225 shares of GM common stock for each $1,000 in principal amount tendered and will also receive accrued interest in cash.
The offer is “extremely unattractive,” said Mirko Mikelic, an investment manager at Fifth Third Asset Management in Grand Rapids, Michigan, which manages $14 billion in fixed income and doesn’t own GM bonds. “I’d be surprised if many take this offer. I don’t think bondholders are interested in a 10 percent equity stake. They want control.”
Loans Exchange
The proposed debt exchange is also conditional on the U.S. Treasury agreeing to exchange 50 percent of its loans at June 1, estimated to be $10 billion, for stock. The VEBA and the U.S. Treasury would own about 89 percent of the common stock in the reorganized GM after their debt exchanges, the statement said. The remaining 1 percent of stock would be held by GM’s existing common shareholders.
“I’m not a big fan of the eventual ownership mix of the company,” said Pete Hastings, a fixed-income analyst at Morgan Keegan & Co. in Memphis, Tennessee. “That seems to be an unfair shake to bondholders.”
The Obama administration ousted Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner last month, saying that GM’s plan to return to profit wasn’t aggressive enough, and ordered new CEO Fritz Henderson to cut the automaker’s debt by more than initially demanded. GM will be forced to go into a government-supported bankruptcy without deeper cost cuts from its creditors by June 1, the administration said.
Before Wagoner was removed, GM had proposed that bondholders swap more than three-quarters of their stake for equity, according to a person familiar with the talks. That offer would have given bondholders 90 percent of the equity of the reorganized automaker and a combination of cash and new unsecured notes, the person said at the time.
To contact the reporter on this story: Caroline Salas in New York at [email protected]
Last Updated: April 27, 2009 13:02 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2KvUxKmASGk&refer=home
 

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