Non so se è già stato postato questo pezzo del WSJ online, nel qual caso mi scuso per la ripetizione...
Fonti greche stimano al rialzo il deficit/PIL complessivo del 2011, che si attesterebbe fra il 9,5% ed il 10%, con una possibilità di ulteriore revisione sopra il 10% dopo il completamento dei conti di fine anno...
Circa le Cac, esse non occorrerebbero in caso di partecipazione al PSI superiore al 90%, mentre la Grecia mediterebbe la loro introduzione retraoattiva se ci fosse almeno un 75% di partecipazione al PSI per bloccare l'holdout...
Multiple correzioni, ma ho poco tempo... perdonate...
- JANUARY 9, 2012, 7:33 A.M. ET
Holders Of Greek Debt To Be Asked To Accept 60% Haircut-Sources
By Costas Paris
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Private investors holding Greek debt will be asked to accept an around 60% haircut as a previously agreed 50% write-down is no longer seen as sufficient due to the deteriorating Greek economy, people with direct knowledge of the matter said Monday.
"The cut in terms of net present value will likely edge higher towards 60%. We still expect an agreement in January. There are reactions from bond holders but we basically have little choice," a banker involved in the talks said.
Officials say that Greece's lingering recession, which now has entered its fifth year, has thwarted government efforts to increase the tax receipts needed to shrink budget deficits.
Getting Greece's creditor banks to agree to writing down their debt holdings is an integral part of an EUR130 billion second bailout package for Greece. The plan will call for an exchange of old bonds with new ones that will have a maturity of up to 30 years and carry a coupon of between 4% and 5%.
If an agreement is reached, as much as EUR206 billion in debt held by private investors will be cut to around EUR100 billion. If Greece doesn't get the bailout loan it will become the first euro-zone country to default as early as March.
Olivier Blanchard, the International Monetary Fund's chief economist, said last week that Greece's haircut could have to be larger.
"The numbers are not good" for Greece, Blanchard said in an interview on CNBC television. "There'll have to be substantial haircuts."
A full participation in the bailout by private creditors would allow Greece to reduce its total government debt to about 120% of gross domestic product in 2020, down from more than 160% currently.
Greece has sought a greater than 90% participation among creditor banks for the program to be viable. Athens is seriously considering using so-called collective action clauses that would stop holdouts from blocking the deal if the participation rate reaches 75%, officials say.
Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said last week that Greece faces the risk of a disorderly default in March if it doesn't complete negotiations for the country's second bailout. Greece faces a daunting EUR14 billion in debt redemptions coming due that month.
Beyond the bigger cut in Greece, private bond holders of euro-zone sovereign debt are concerned that the remedy will be repeated in other countries like Italy, Spain and Portugal, fuelling contagion across international markets despite the fact that both the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund have described Greece as a "special case."
A senior Greek government official said the higher cut may be inevitable as the economy has deteriorated since the 50% write-down agreement was agreed in October.
The budget deficit target for 2011 will be missed due to lower than expected tax revenue, said one Greek official directly involved.
"The recession has hit the country hard and many people either can't or are asking for extensions to pay their taxes.
We now expect a budget deficit of between 9.5% and 10% and it's not impossible that we even go beyond 10%. We are now working on the full-year data," he said.
In the first 11 months of last year net income to state coffers amounted to EUR43.8 billion, missing the target by EUR1.8 billion.
The Greek official said he expects Greece's so-called troika of creditors--the European Union, the IMF and the European Central Bank--to push for deeper spending cuts, especially in private sector salaries when they return to Athens Jan. 16.
