Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 2 (8 lettori)

[baleng]

Scusate un minimo atto di ... immodestia
Sono entrato in ottobre (ma già da tempo sul FOL, con altro nick ) chiedendo\proponendo una eventuale class action contro la BCE: vedo con piacere () che Tommy la pensa oggi nella stessa maniera.
Poco dopo sostenevo (soprattutto di là) che convenisse passare dalle brevi alle lunghe ... oggi mi sembra sia la visione della maggioranza.
Con tutta questa lungimiranza sono sotto di 100 e rotti (@@) k su titoli comprati a rating A, ed anche per questo sono contento di aver portato in tribunale le Ag di Rating per la faccenda Lehman, pur avendo là pochi spicci. Diciamo che posso consolarmi col fatto che vista lunga o vista corta è tutta questione di q.lo (e di latrocinio dall'altra parte)?

 

[stefanofabb]

Scusate un minimo atto di ... immodestia
Sono entrato in ottobre (ma già da tempo sul FOL, con altro nick ) chiedendo\proponendo una eventuale class action contro la BCE: vedo con piacere () che Tommy la pensa oggi nella stessa maniera.
Poco dopo sostenevo (soprattutto di là) che convenisse passare dalle brevi alle lunghe ... oggi mi sembra sia la visione della maggioranza.
Con tutta questa lungimiranza sono sotto di 100 e rotti (@@) k su titoli comprati a rating A, ed anche per questo sono contento di aver portato in tribunale le Ag di Rating per la faccenda Lehman, pur avendo là pochi spicci. Diciamo che posso consolarmi col fatto che vista lunga o vista corta è tutta questione di q.lo (e di latrocinio dall'altra parte)?

buona sera baleng- io con Lehman...causa privata non abbiamo portato le ag.di rating. sul banco degli imputati; era come scontrarsi col muro.piuttosto ragionerei sulla causa VS banche e un rapporto dettagliato con perizie CTU dello stato in questione.ce n'è sarebbe da scrivere! le banche fino ad un certo periodo hanno piazzato i bond in questione a loro insaputa della situazione poi hanno cominciato a fare firmare la gente per accollarsi tutta la responsabilità,facile!..ti assicuro che la class action in Italia non è forte come negli USA,visto che da noi nessuno va in galera si può fregare !..qualsivoglia risarcimento come nel caso Lehman va avanti quasi 5 anni (i tuoi soldi te li danno col contagocce (24 usd il valore) diluiti in questo lasso di tempo ed è come perdere altri soldi ..e poi che vada tutto bene!)io opterei per causa privata e con un buon legale prof. di diritto bancario, se avessi da 50 k in su investiti!P.s:si è questione di culo a volte e anche di adrenalina aggiungo,ne ho messa molta in due anni poco più e qualcosa mi dice che se non si parte con l'intento di vincere...io l'ho fatto con uno dei più grandi istituti bancari italiani e che sono quelli che collocano questi bond in maggior numero.Stefano

 

[9/15]

Scusate un minimo atto di ... immodestia
Sono entrato in ottobre (ma già da tempo sul FOL, con altro nick ) chiedendo\proponendo una eventuale class action contro la BCE: vedo con piacere () che Tommy la pensa oggi nella stessa maniera.
Poco dopo sostenevo (soprattutto di là) che convenisse passare dalle brevi alle lunghe ... oggi mi sembra sia la visione della maggioranza.
Con tutta questa lungimiranza sono sotto di 100 e rotti (@@) k su titoli comprati a rating A, ed anche per questo sono contento di aver portato in tribunale le Ag di Rating per la faccenda Lehman, pur avendo là pochi spicci. Diciamo che posso consolarmi col fatto che vista lunga o vista corta è tutta questione di q.lo (e di latrocinio dall'altra parte)?

Hai fatto la causa collettiva con noi di AIROLB?
Sulla nostra ci sono novità...
Se a qualcuno interessa stiamo anche facendo vendita collettiva delle LBHI a 25 circa.

 

[Abulico]

Full PSI deal to come by Monday

Venizelos says the main points should emerge by noon on Friday

The feverish negotiations on the private sector involvement plan (PSI+) for the Greek debt swap are set to continue on Friday, but reports suggest that, under great pressure to conclude their talks, the parties involved are very close to striking a deal.

Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told Parliament on Thursday that on Friday, probably by noon, the technical details of the agreement are expected to have been decided so that by Monday, when the Eurogroup council of eurozone finance ministers meets, the deal will have been completed.

“On Monday, January 30, at the European Union summit,” said Venizelos, “we must have definitive plans for the new loan program, too, not just PSI+.”

Late on Thursday Venizelos and Prime Minister Lucas Papademos met again with the head of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), Charles Dallara, for the completion of the agreement.

Sources said Dallara discussed his new proposal that provides for an average interest rate of 4.25 percent for the new bonds Greece will issue to replace the old ones, leading to 68 percent losses in net present value terms for bondholders.

The IIF proposed a coupon of 3 percent for bonds maturing until 2014, 4 percent from 2015 to 2020, and 4.5 percent for after 2020. For the latter, the proposal includes a rate surplus based on the country’s growth rate. Bondholders are also asking for European Union guarantees for the new bonds.

Before his meeting with Venizelos and Papademos, Dallara told journalists that he hoped the negotiations would quickly lead to an agreement.

Bank officials noted that there have been some substantial and in-depth negotiations in the last few days, and expressed their optimism for an agreement. However, they added that for a deal to be reached, the International Monetary Fund and the eurozone, and Germany in particular, will have to accept interest rates that can support the voluntary character of the agreement.

The IMF, sources say, is firmly insisting that the new bonds’ rate not exceed 3 percent, so that the haircut can lead to a substantial lightening of the debt load for Greece.


Direi "buone nuove"......ovviamente le sorprese negative sono sempre dietro l'angolo...pero' al momento la fiammella della speranza di un pieno recupero del nominale investito dal retail non si e' ancora spenta

 

[Gaudente]

ce n'è sarebbe da scrivere!

si' ma mi raccomando fallo scrivere all'avvocato

 

[Gaudente]

..pero' al momento la fiammella della speranza di un pieno recupero del nominale investito dal retail non si e' ancora spenta

bisogna che mi trasferisca ad Arani...ci dev'essere della roba eccezionale

 

[giub]

ATHENS—The Greek government and its private-sector creditors appeared to be closing in on a debt-restructuring deal on the basis of new proposals, raising hopes it would pave the way for another multibillion-euro bailout for the country.
That optimism helped fuel a rally in financial markets across Europe, with the Athens stock exchange rising 2.9% and Greek banking stocks gaining 5%.



Greece's efforts to get relief from its private-sector creditors recently have faltered. This week's resumption of the talks came after talks between the two sides broke down Jan. 13 amid differences about the future interest rate Greece would pay bondholders.
What rate is chosen could determine how much of a loss creditors will take on the current value of their Greek debt holdings.
After 2.5 hours of talks late Thursday, both sides announced that progress had been made in the negotiations with another meeting scheduled for Friday.
"The climate was good. There was a very fundamental and long-lasting discussion," Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said. "Progress was made and the talks will continue tomorrow at midday."
Earlier, Mr. Venizelos said in Parliament that many details of the bond-swap plan need to be finalized by Monday's meeting of euro-zone finance ministers, who will discuss their share of the Greek aid plan.

"We are now at the moment of truth; everyday many important things are taking place," he said.
A separate statement, issued by the Institute for International Finance, a Washington-based lobby group representing the world's biggest banks, also confirmed that the discussions had advanced and described Thursday's talks as "productive."
An agreement would cut Greece's total debt of €360 billion ($464.8 billion) by as much as €103 billion and is part of a new bailout loan for Greece amounting to €130 billion that Europe and the International Monetary Fund have promised Greece to cover its financing needs through 2015. The reduction, if agreed, would save Greece €4 billion a year in interest.
The amount of public support for Greece will depend on the reduction the private sector makes to Greece's total debt, with both sides hoping for the best deal.
The main dispute between the two sides is related to the annual interest payments on new bonds that would be exchanged for the old.
The institute is seeking an annual coupon of 4% to 5%, arguing it is the absolute lower limit of any deal that could be described as voluntary, according to people familiar with the talks. Some euro-zone governments, led by Germany and supported by the IMF, have been pushing for an interest rate of well below 4%, putting more of the burden on the private-sector creditors.
To bridge the difference, the institute, led by Managing Director Charles Dallara, is now proposing the new Greek bonds carry an interest rate starting below 4% and rising every two years, said a European Union official familiar with the talks.
Under discussion is a coupon starting at around 3.6% to 3.7% that will progressively increase over time. Mr. Dallara will put this proposal to the banks and could come back with the reaction as early as late Thursday, said a Greek government official.
The coupon on the new bonds would rise according to a timetable along the range of the maturity, by every two, three or four years, or closer to the maturity of the new bonds, explained a banker involved in the talks.
"There is nothing voluntary about all this," the banker said. "We have a gun pointing at our heads."
Thursday's negotiations come one day before Greece launches separate talks with its international creditors on the new bailout program after the IMF's executive board, meeting in Washington, gave the nod for its staff to start official negotiations.
Top officials from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF, known as the troika, are expected to arrive in Athens on Friday to start negotiations with Greece on that aid deal.
Greece and its European partners hope the outlines of that new bailout package can be ready for a Jan. 30 EU summit. In March, Greece faces a €14.4 billion bond redemption it can't pay without some form of financing from its European partners and the IMF.

 

[tommy271]

Scusate un minimo atto di ... immodestia
Sono entrato in ottobre (ma già da tempo sul FOL, con altro nick ) chiedendo\proponendo una eventuale class action contro la BCE: vedo con piacere () che Tommy la pensa oggi nella stessa maniera.
Poco dopo sostenevo (soprattutto di là) che convenisse passare dalle brevi alle lunghe ... oggi mi sembra sia la visione della maggioranza.
Con tutta questa lungimiranza sono sotto di 100 e rotti (@@) k su titoli comprati a rating A, ed anche per questo sono contento di aver portato in tribunale le Ag di Rating per la faccenda Lehman, pur avendo là pochi spicci. Diciamo che posso consolarmi col fatto che vista lunga o vista corta è tutta questione di q.lo (e di latrocinio dall'altra parte)?

Direi, per , questi discorsi di attendere più avanti (spero mai).
Sono curioso di vedere, nel frattempo, come gestiranno la faccenda dei 45 MLD (60 MLD nominali) in pancia alla BCE ... .

 

[tommy271]

Oggi ci dovrebbe essere una formulazione della proposta di swap (al massimo nel fine settimana) tra Grecia e IIF in modo da presentare il tutto per la riunione UE di lunedì.
Ieri abbiamo assistito ad una rapida discesa, sui mercati retail, delle quotazioni della marzo attutita nel finale da una leggera ripresa.
La tensione è alta, l'indicatore dello spread decennale ormai indica poco visti gli scambi ormai ridotti al lume di candela. Le oscillazioni sono le solite entro l'arco della giornata, diciamo su una mediana intorno ai 3250 pb. con punte in allargamento di 300 pb.
Rimane sempre debole la posizione del Portogallo, i cui fondamentali assomigliano alla Grecia. Relativamente stabile il resto del gruppone con timidi tentativi verso il restringimento.
A contraltare il Bund, sempre in ottima forma sui max storici.

Grecia 3548 (3249)
Portogallo 1267 (1285)
Irlanda 581 (577)
Italia 454 (467)
Spagna 339 (338)
Belgio 226 (234)
Austria 141 (147)
Francia 131 (136)

Bund Vs Bond -12 (-9)

 

[giub]

Greek Debt Deal Falls Short of What’s Needed to Save Euro: Bloomberg View

By the Editors Jan 20, 2012 1:00 AM GMT+0100 0 Comments
At some point, possibly in the next several weeks, Europe will run into a major flaw in its plan to shore up the region’s finances: Some euro-area governments, such as Greece, simply aren’t going to be able to pay their debts.
The sooner Europe’s leaders recognize this and take appropriate action, the less expensive the solution will be.
This week’s main event in Europe has been a standoff between Greece and its private creditors over the terms of a “voluntary” debt-relief deal. Agreement is crucial to avert a Greek default on a 14.4 billion euro payment due March 20, and to keep open the financing spigot from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
Whatever the outcome of those negotiations, though, it won’t solve Greece’s debt problem. The European Central Bank, the IMF and other official creditors aren’t taking part in the deal, so it will affect only private creditors. They hold about 200 billion euros of Greece’s 338-billion-euro net government debt. In other words, even the 50 percent writedown Greece is seeking will reduce its debt burden by only 100 billion euros, or less than 30 percent.
That’s not enough. Any country’s solvency is a function of its debt load, interest costs, growth rate and fiscal policy. In Greece’s case, assuming an interest rate of 4 percent (the rate it may get out of the debt talks) on its remaining 238 billion euros in debt, and using the IMF’s projections of economic growth, the government would have to run a primary budget surplus (not counting interest payments) of 3.2 percent of gross domestic product indefinitely just to keep its debt burden stable.
Primary Surplus

Don’t count on that happening. Greece has managed to run a primary surplus that large in only six of the past 24 years, when economic growth was much stronger. To meet such a goal now, it would have to reduce its deficit by some 10 billion euros a year, the equivalent of about two-thirds of its spending on social programs.
Portugal, which is not currently in line for debt relief, faces a similarly daunting task. To maintain a stable debt burden, it would have to run a primary surplus of 2 percent of GDP, something it has done in only two of the past 16 years.
The dire state of the two governments’ finances raises a troubling question at a time when German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are trying to fast- track a new fiscal compact for the 17-nation euro area: How can the agreement, which seeks to toughen budgetary discipline, restore confidence in Europe’s finances if at least two of its signatories are insolvent from day one?
It’s possible that Merkel and her ideological soul mates at the ECB are hoping that, by keeping strapped governments dependent on official financing, they’ll have more power to push through austerity measures. Problem is, heavy debt loads are making the budget-cutting measures much more painful than they need to be -- and probably too painful to put in place.
The likely result: slower growth, greater dependence on official creditors and bigger losses for European taxpayers down the road. Not to mention the deleterious effect the ongoing uncertainty will have on the finances of core euro-area countries, European banks and ultimately the ECB itself. At any moment, doubts about the euro’s survival could trigger a financial catastrophe.
A quicker and more honest reckoning would stand a better chance of stopping the rot and creating the conditions for a successful fiscal union. We have advocated writing down the debts of Greece and Portugal by 70 percent and 40 percent, respectively, leaving them with the much more realistic task of achieving primary surpluses of about 1 percent of GDP. This can be done only if official creditors take losses alongside their private counterparts. With all euro-area governments on a solvent footing, the ECB could then step in with credible guarantees to recapitalize banks and calm market jitters.
All these elements will eventually be needed if the euro is to survive. Enacting them now would dramatically increase the chances of success.