Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 2

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Giovedì il Parlamento tedesco decide sugli aiutI, MERKEL FIDUCIOSA

«Atene rispetterà gli impegni»
Euro, spunta un maxi-piano

Venizelos: la Grecia non è il capro espiatorio d'Europa


WASHINGTON - Il messaggio inviato dal G20, di un impegno corale a sostenere gli sforzi dell'Europa per superare le crisi del debito sovrano, potrebbe non bastare a rassicurare i mercati alla riapertura delle contrattazioni, oggi. Ed i primi ad esserne convinti sono proprio, i ministri, i governatori delle banche centrali, i regolatori che hanno partecipato alla tre giorni di vertice dei Venti paesi più ricchi del pianeta e ai lavori dell'Fmi. Sui quali ha aleggiato la prospettiva, peraltro sempre smentita, di un inevitabile default della Grecia. Così ieri si sono rafforzati gli inviti a potenziare il fondo salva-Stati (Efsf), reso permanente e già più ricco rispetto alla prima edizione del maggio 2010, dal piano approvato, ma non ancora attuato, a Bruxelles il 21 luglio.
E si è diffusa anche l'ipotesi di un nuovo mega piano europeo da 3 mila miliardi di euro che sarebbe stato già esaminato e discusso da parte dei ministri del G20. Venerdì e sabato scorsi sotto la pressione della Cina, dell'Fmi e degli Usa che con il suo segretario al Tesoro Tim Geithner sabato hanno avvertito del pericolo di una serie di «default a cascata» nei paesi dell'Eurozona. A dare la notizia è stato il settimanale britannico Sunday Times secondo cui l'obiettivo dell'azione sarebbe quello di mettere in sicurezza Eurolandia e l'euro, anche nella prospettiva di un crack della Grecia. La maggior parte delle risorse verrebbe dirottata a rafforzare il capitale delle 16 maggiori banche del continente più in difficoltà, onde evitare disastrosi sconquassi sistemici, e per il resto ad alimentare in misura maggiore il Fondo salva-Stati. Sempre secondo il settimanale il piano verrebbe annunciato nei prossimi giorni. Non esistono però conferme (ma neanche smentite) così come non sembra trovare sbocco l'iniziativa, segnalata dal settimanale Le Journal du dimanche , che sarebbe stata proposta dal governo francese alle 5 principali banche del Paese (Bnp Paribas, Societé Generale, Credit Agricole, Bpce e Credit Mutuel), a metà di settembre, per una ricapitalizzazione da 10-15 miliardi di euro.
A chiedere comunque un rafforzamento dell'Efsf ieri a Washington è stato Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, componente del board della Bce: il fondo va rafforzato, deve diventare uno strumento realmente efficace per garantire la liquidità sui mercati», ha detto, aggiungendo che bisogna «agire tempestivamente nei prossimi giorni» perché «l'attuale rete di protezione va rafforzata per assicurare che il sistema finanziario europeo resista a qualunque choc». Dal Fondo invece è arrivata, dal capo del dipartimento Europa del Fmi, Antonio Borges, la sollecitazione alla Bce per «un'azione congiunta» con l' Efsf per calmare il nervosismo dei mercati e scongiurare il rischio di contagio della crisi dal Vecchio Continente agli Stati Uniti e al resto del mondo.

La Grecia però non ci sta a fare da «capro espiatorio» della crisi europea e, col primo ministro George Papandreou, rilancia sui ritardi e le divisioni della comunità internazionale la responsabilità della gravità dell'attuale situazione. La Grecia «non è il problema centrale dell'Europa, anche perché possiede solo il 3% del debito pubblico della zona», ha affermato il ministro delle Finanze greco, Evangelos Venizelos parlando a Washington. Il paese farà «qualunque cosa sarà necessario» per centrare gli obiettivi che sono stati fissati ed «è pronto a prendere le iniziative opportune qualunque sia il costo politico». E che la Grecia non si debba far fallire lo ha spiegato anche la cancelliera Angela Merkel in tv ai tedeschi: «Si distruggerebbe la fiducia degli investitori nell'Eurozona». Giovedì il Bundestag voterà la riforma dell'Efsf e Merkel - per la quale il fondo va ampliato e «si deve avere la possibilità di ristrutturare i debiti dei Paesi come si fa con le banche» - ha «fiducia» nella maggioranza della sua coalizione.
Stefania Tamburello
26 settembre 2011 07:50

 

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EU plans Greek debt buyback open to all investors

The buyback of Greek debt, part of the nation’s second bailout, should be broad-based and occur at the same time as a bond swap now being negotiated, according to a European Union planning document.
The document, which wasn’t intended for release to the markets, says the operation would be open to all investors and include all of Greece’s outstanding government bonds. It also recommends making the buyback conditional on the debt swap, in order to minimize the amount of time that rating companies consider Greece to be in “selective default.”
Greece could buy back its debt through a modified Dutch auction using short-term discount bills issued by the European Financial Stability Facility. The document, obtained by Bloomberg News, envisions the EFSF as the only source of funding for the buyback operation.
“If the offer is for EFSF short-term paper rather than cash, each bidder will make its own decision how to value the EFSF bills,” the document says. “Bidding will simply be made by reference to the principle amount of bills each bidder requires in exchange for 100 euros” of Greek bonds.
The buyback, which EU and banking industry officials estimate at 20 billion euros ($27 billion), is part of a rescue package agreed upon by EU leaders on July 21, which includes 109 billion euros in public funds and the voluntary debt swap for bondholders. The buyback is likely to offer more overall debt reduction for Greece than the accompanying bond swap, the internal EU document said.
Standard & Poor’s has indicated that a conditional buyback offer “will postpone a determination” that Greece is in temporary default until the debt swap closes, the document said. Without this condition, Greece would be placed in selective default as soon as the buyback offer is announced.
Greece would have the ability to set a minimum price and decide how to set the final clearing price for the auction. Modified Dutch auctions are used in many countries, including the US, for selling and buying back debt because they offer flexibility in gauging demand and pricing.
“The principal objectives of the buyback are to reduce the stock of Greece’s outstanding debt to the greatest extent possible at the lowest possible price,” the document says.
By giving the buyback a broad scope, it will be available to bondholders who aren’t eligible for the debt swap, according to the document. “The Hellenic Republic and its advisers believe that the buyback should encompass all Greek government bonds and not be limited to bonds maturing after 2020 or some other date.” (Bloomberg)






ekathimerini.com , Sunday September 25, 2011 (20:51)

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Questo fattibile entro il percorso del "21 luglio".

 

[tommy271]

Mandatory haircut to Greek debt seems inevitable

By Dimitris Kontogiannis


The financial markets have demanded a clear-cut solution to the Greek public debt crisis for a long time, but the Greek and the other eurozone governments seem to have chosen to shrug it off or at least pay little attention to it. It is time they change tune and confront the crisis head on, admitting that Greece cannot repay its huge public debt fully and on time.

After the Greek government announced the new set of austerity measures, we said it may have been able to convince its EU partners and the IMF to provide it with the next bailout tranche of 8 billion euros, but questioned whether it would be able to have the same success with the markets. Well, it is clear by now that the markets were not convinced, though the usual EU cacophony over the future of the country should also be blamed for this.

Signs of economic weakness on the continent and in the United States, the Fed’s unusual struggle to reassure markets and the markets’ focus on European banks in recent weeks, highlighting the feedback loop between credit institutions and sovereign issuers, have not helped either.

In late July, after the EU summit we wrote that its decisions were more important for the rest of the eurozone than for Greece because of the increased powers and flexibility given to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) mechanism to stem contagion more aggressively.

Although the summit’s decisions improved Greek debt sustainability through lower interest rates and an increased focus on structural reforms, it did not do much to cut its debt-to-GDP to reasonable levels.

Debt buybacks and private sector participation (PSI) would have slashed the country’s public debt by some 12 percentage points at a time when the IMF’s latest forecast puts Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio well above 180 percent in 2012.

It would have taken a determined government working full time, an efficient Greek state apparatus and a fast decision-making process at a pan-European level to implement the decisions and start delivering results to convince the markets this time was different -- this, once again, was not the case.

Judging from recent developments, it is clear that things have not gone the way they should have or were hoped for. Of course, it is easy to get carried away with the negative psychology of the markets, though we do not think this is the case.

Although the Greek government will try to implement the new austerity measures it is not at all clear whether it has the time it needs to convince the markets and its partners that this time things will be different.
In this respect, it is better to consult Greece’s partners and to try convince them that the best solution is indeed the one Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos referred to when he spoke to his party’s lawmakers last week. That is, relieving Greece of part of its public debt while staying in the eurozone, or a soft default scenario.

This, we think, is the clear solution to the Greek debt crisis that the markets have demanded for quite some time and will most likely enforce it if EU leaders continue to drag their feet. Of course, the EU could take the easy route via an extended Greek debt buyback program, though this is unlikely because of political resistance in key eurozone countries. The EFSF could provide either funds or its bonds to Greece to swap them at low market prices with existing Greek bonds and cut its debt this way.

Otherwise, the authorities will have to think along the lines of a mandatory haircut on all Greek bondholders to bring the debt ratio closer to 100 percent of GDP. This should range between 40 and 80 percent depending on the debt instruments included. Of course, this will have undesirable consequences because it would activate CDS on Greek debt and prop up the CDS of other eurozone countries.

Moreover, Greek and some other European banks will have to be recapitalized in this event via the EFSF and Greece will still have to carry out reforms and still give up some sovereignty. But, it will be able to convince the international investment community that its debt ratio is at a sustainable level and to attract foreign direct investment flows to counteract the effects of fiscal austerity.

As we have pointed out, there is no easy solution to the Greek debt problem, but if there is one it has to be clear-cut and straightforward to approach the endgame and please the markets. In this regard, Greece and the eurozone should prepare for dealing with the consequences of this solution rather than beating around the bush as they have been doing for quite some time. In other words, Venizelos was right.


ekathimerini.com , Sunday September 25, 2011 (22:49)

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Opinioni.

 

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questo per Gaudente

Thai shares plummet on Greece debt woes

The Stock Exchange of Thailand lost grounds, with the composite index plummeting to 877.08 points or over 8 per cent before a rebound. At midday, the index ended at 883.23 points, down 7.82 per cent, on turnover of Bt24.81 billion.
Thai shares plummet on Greece debt woes

 

[tommy271]

Futures Bund dicembre apre a 137,95, in calo di 17 tick

lunedì 26 settembre 2011 08:06

 

[tommy271]

Thai shares plummet on Greece debt woes

The Stock Exchange of Thailand lost grounds, with the composite index plummeting to 877.08 points or over 8 per cent before a rebound. At midday, the index ended at 883.23 points, down 7.82 per cent, on turnover of Bt24.81 billion.
Thai shares plummet on Greece debt woes

Borsa Tokyo, Nikkei chiude in calo 2,17%, pesano timori Grecia

lunedì 26 settembre 2011 08:10



TOKYO, 26 settembre (Reuters) - L'indice Nikkei della borsa di Tokyo ha chiuso in calo di oltre il 2%, sui minimi da aprile 2009, inseguendo i ribassi registrati da Wall Street giovedì dopo un week-end festivo di tre giorni.
La borsa giapponese si è mossa in linea con gli altri asset di investimento più rischiosi per i timori di un default della Grecia.
Il Nikkei ha chiuso in calo del 2,17% a 8.374,13 punti, mentre il Topix ha perso il 2,11% a 728,85 punti.

 

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Eurozone crisis: there are no miracles in Greek tragedies - Telegraph
Lending ever greater sums to a mismanaged and corrupt economy won’t make it solvent , says Jeff Randal


Just before the roof fell in on Kweku Adoboli, the UBS trader whose “miscalculations” cost his bank $2.3 billion, he posted a message on Facebook: “I need a miracle.” Keep an eye out for something similar from George Papandreou, Greece’s prime minister, who has been telling us: “Let everyone be certain, Greece will not default, we will not let it default.” Nothing short of a supernatural event is now required for that promise to be met – the Greek bubble is about to pop.
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Merkel wars against Greek debt default | Germany | Deutsche Welle | 26.09.2011

 

[tommy271]

EU Rehn Warns Of Contagion Effect From Greek Insolvency;Press




BERLIN (MNI) - EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn in a newspaper interview published Monday warned that a disorderly insolvency of Greece would have grave consequences for the rest of Europe.
"It would be difficult to contain a contagion," Rehn told German daily Die Welt. Still, the Commissioner said he expected that Greece would not go into default.
Already on Sunday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Germany's ARD public television that only the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), planned for mid-2013, will allow an orderly state insolvency.
"I don't rule out at all that at some point we will have to ask whether one can do a state insolvency just like with banks," Merkel said.
German weekly Der Spiegel reported on Sunday that the German finance ministry was looking to start the ESM as early as next year.
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said at the margins of the IMF/World Bank meeting in Washington that if the ESM could come into effect before mid-2013 "we would have nothing against it."

 

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