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Charlie don't Surf
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Abulico
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Significant post-election economic challenges await Greek coalition
The European Parliament elections on Sunday handed SYRIZA a historic victory but the overall results are unlikely to force snap polls at this moment.
As the dust begins to settle after the vote, attention will return to the economic challenges ahead, which remain a demanding task for the New Democracy and PASOK coalition.
We have highlighted below the short- to medium-term priorities for the government. These involve implementing the bailout programme, securing debt relief, covering the lack of liquidity, restoring growth and tackling unemployment.
Implementing the bailout programme
The completion of the drawn-out troika review in mid-April paved the way for the disbursement of first sub-tranche of 6.3 billion in late April. The remaining two sub-tranches of 1 billion each are due to be disbursed in June and July subject to the implementation of prior actions.
The budget execution so far shows a primary surplus of 1.05 billion to April despite a widening of the revenue shortfall to 622 million. Revenue collection remains key for the achievement of the primary surplus target of at least 2.75 billion (1.5 percent of GDP) in 2014.
The Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy passed through Parliament earlier this month calls for a primary surplus of 4.19 billion euros (2.3 percent of GDP) in 2014, 0.8 percentage points higher than Economic Adjustment Programme (EAP) target.
The next troika visit is scheduled in July and one of the thorny issues that could be placed on the negotiating table is that of further reform to the pension system. The merging of all supplementary pension funds of the public sector into the private sector main pension fund is a prior action for the July disbursement.
On top of fiscal consolidation, the implementation of structural reforms in several areas will be in the troika’s focus.
Securing debt relief
Despite initial expectations, the Greek Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras did not present any debt relief plan at the Eurogroup on May 5. The announcement following that meeting indicated that: “The relative merits of possible debt sustainability measures, as stated by the Eurogroup on 27 November 2012, will be considered in the context of the next review,” which is due in September.
The government has reportedly assessed a plan incorporating a conversion of the Greek Loan Facility (GLF) variable rate (currently at Euribor plus 50 basis points) to 1 percent constant for the next 50 years. This could result in total savings of 25 billion (14 percent of GDP) over the 50-year period. The government’s plan also incorporates the deferral of interest payments on GLF loans for 10 or 20 years, similarly to those previously applied to EFSF loans.
In any case, developments on this crucial front are closely linked to wider developments in the euro area in the post-EU elections period.
The upcoming release of the IMF’s fifth review of the Greek programme in June is expected to provide more insight into the Fund’s stance on debt sustainability and could put further pressure on eurozone partners to adopt a concrete solution.
A lack of liquidity
Credit to the private sector has been limited over the past few years. Credit expansion turned negative in January 2011 and has been hovering at around 4 percent over the past two years. In the corporate sector, there have been only three monthly readings with net loan additions since January 2012.
Similarly, loans to sole proprietors posted net additions of just 100 million over the past 15 months. The household sector is showing persistent net deductions since April 2010 without any sign of potential turnaround in the near future.
The fact that non-performing loans have risen to about a third of total loans is among the key reasons banks are still in a deleveraging mode. Also, lending criteria have been made much stricter for corporates and households remain reluctant to take out loans. The recent successful recapitalization of Greek banks eliminated previous capital concerns and could create opportunities for credit expansion should the economy start to rebound and the huge stock of NPLs is gradually reduced or resolved.
Despite payment of state arrears to the private sector of 5.4 billion in 2013, 1.9 billion of new arrears were created in 2013. The total figure is currently at 5.2 billion and is seen as a drain on market liquidity.
Restoring growth
GDP contracted 1.1 percent in the first quarter (Q1) of 2014, the slowest rate of decline since Q1 2010. Greece has experienced negative growth since Q3 of 2008. The cumulative nosedive stands at 25.6 percent over the past six years.
The official sector, the Bank of Greece and rating agencies expect a GDP rebound of up to 0.6 percent in 2014. In contrast, the OECD projects 2014 will be another recessionary year, although at a modest -0.3 percent.
The 0.6 percent GDP growth this year assumes a deceleration in the decline of private and public consumption to -1.8 percent each, while gross fixed capital formation is estimated to rebound by 5.3 percent in 2014 after falling by 12.8 percent in 2013.
Following the release of Q1 GDP data, it has been calculated that for the official target of 0.6 percent growth to be achieved GDP needs to grow by 1.1 percent in each of the next three quarters. This would require a stronger tourism season in Q2 and Q3, as well as exports returning to growth.
Tourism is expected to record another record year in 2014 after tourist arrivals and travel receipts soared 18.7 and 16.4 percent respectively in 2013. Initial forecasts see a rise of arrivals and revenues by 3.4 and 6.6 percent in 2014.
Unemployment remains sky high
Despite a reduction of 1.2 percentage points (pp) since it peaked at 27.7 percent in September 2013, unemployment remains among the most crucial political and social issues in Greece.
The latest reading for February stands at 26.5 percent. The number of unemployed is at 1.3 million, which is three times higher than in February 2009. Youth unemployment remains persistently above the 55-percent park. It is followed by the 24-34 age bracket, where the jobless rate is in excess of 34 percent.
The official sector projects Greek unemployment will ease by at least 1 pp this year and a further 2 pp in 2015. In contrast, the OECD projects a slower reduction of 0.7 pp cumulatively in 2014-15.
Prime Minister Antonis Samaras recently announced a very ambitious plan for creating a total of 770,000 jobs by 2020. Three quarters of those jobs are projected to be created in the following sectors: tourism, agriculture and fishery, and packaging.
So far, all the measures that have been adopted to provide more flexibility to the labor market have proved largely fruitless. In addition, the sharp reduction of households’ disposable income, couples with the implementation of strict austerity measures, has further eroded social cohesion.
The European Parliament elections on Sunday handed SYRIZA a historic victory but the overall results are unlikely to force snap polls at this moment.
As the dust begins to settle after the vote, attention will return to the economic challenges ahead, which remain a demanding task for the New Democracy and PASOK coalition.
We have highlighted below the short- to medium-term priorities for the government. These involve implementing the bailout programme, securing debt relief, covering the lack of liquidity, restoring growth and tackling unemployment.
Implementing the bailout programme
The completion of the drawn-out troika review in mid-April paved the way for the disbursement of first sub-tranche of 6.3 billion in late April. The remaining two sub-tranches of 1 billion each are due to be disbursed in June and July subject to the implementation of prior actions.
The budget execution so far shows a primary surplus of 1.05 billion to April despite a widening of the revenue shortfall to 622 million. Revenue collection remains key for the achievement of the primary surplus target of at least 2.75 billion (1.5 percent of GDP) in 2014.
The Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy passed through Parliament earlier this month calls for a primary surplus of 4.19 billion euros (2.3 percent of GDP) in 2014, 0.8 percentage points higher than Economic Adjustment Programme (EAP) target.
The next troika visit is scheduled in July and one of the thorny issues that could be placed on the negotiating table is that of further reform to the pension system. The merging of all supplementary pension funds of the public sector into the private sector main pension fund is a prior action for the July disbursement.
On top of fiscal consolidation, the implementation of structural reforms in several areas will be in the troika’s focus.
Securing debt relief
Despite initial expectations, the Greek Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras did not present any debt relief plan at the Eurogroup on May 5. The announcement following that meeting indicated that: “The relative merits of possible debt sustainability measures, as stated by the Eurogroup on 27 November 2012, will be considered in the context of the next review,” which is due in September.
The government has reportedly assessed a plan incorporating a conversion of the Greek Loan Facility (GLF) variable rate (currently at Euribor plus 50 basis points) to 1 percent constant for the next 50 years. This could result in total savings of 25 billion (14 percent of GDP) over the 50-year period. The government’s plan also incorporates the deferral of interest payments on GLF loans for 10 or 20 years, similarly to those previously applied to EFSF loans.
In any case, developments on this crucial front are closely linked to wider developments in the euro area in the post-EU elections period.
The upcoming release of the IMF’s fifth review of the Greek programme in June is expected to provide more insight into the Fund’s stance on debt sustainability and could put further pressure on eurozone partners to adopt a concrete solution.
A lack of liquidity
Credit to the private sector has been limited over the past few years. Credit expansion turned negative in January 2011 and has been hovering at around 4 percent over the past two years. In the corporate sector, there have been only three monthly readings with net loan additions since January 2012.
Similarly, loans to sole proprietors posted net additions of just 100 million over the past 15 months. The household sector is showing persistent net deductions since April 2010 without any sign of potential turnaround in the near future.
The fact that non-performing loans have risen to about a third of total loans is among the key reasons banks are still in a deleveraging mode. Also, lending criteria have been made much stricter for corporates and households remain reluctant to take out loans. The recent successful recapitalization of Greek banks eliminated previous capital concerns and could create opportunities for credit expansion should the economy start to rebound and the huge stock of NPLs is gradually reduced or resolved.
Despite payment of state arrears to the private sector of 5.4 billion in 2013, 1.9 billion of new arrears were created in 2013. The total figure is currently at 5.2 billion and is seen as a drain on market liquidity.
Restoring growth
GDP contracted 1.1 percent in the first quarter (Q1) of 2014, the slowest rate of decline since Q1 2010. Greece has experienced negative growth since Q3 of 2008. The cumulative nosedive stands at 25.6 percent over the past six years.
The official sector, the Bank of Greece and rating agencies expect a GDP rebound of up to 0.6 percent in 2014. In contrast, the OECD projects 2014 will be another recessionary year, although at a modest -0.3 percent.
The 0.6 percent GDP growth this year assumes a deceleration in the decline of private and public consumption to -1.8 percent each, while gross fixed capital formation is estimated to rebound by 5.3 percent in 2014 after falling by 12.8 percent in 2013.
Following the release of Q1 GDP data, it has been calculated that for the official target of 0.6 percent growth to be achieved GDP needs to grow by 1.1 percent in each of the next three quarters. This would require a stronger tourism season in Q2 and Q3, as well as exports returning to growth.
Tourism is expected to record another record year in 2014 after tourist arrivals and travel receipts soared 18.7 and 16.4 percent respectively in 2013. Initial forecasts see a rise of arrivals and revenues by 3.4 and 6.6 percent in 2014.
Unemployment remains sky high
Despite a reduction of 1.2 percentage points (pp) since it peaked at 27.7 percent in September 2013, unemployment remains among the most crucial political and social issues in Greece.
The latest reading for February stands at 26.5 percent. The number of unemployed is at 1.3 million, which is three times higher than in February 2009. Youth unemployment remains persistently above the 55-percent park. It is followed by the 24-34 age bracket, where the jobless rate is in excess of 34 percent.
The official sector projects Greek unemployment will ease by at least 1 pp this year and a further 2 pp in 2015. In contrast, the OECD projects a slower reduction of 0.7 pp cumulatively in 2014-15.
Prime Minister Antonis Samaras recently announced a very ambitious plan for creating a total of 770,000 jobs by 2020. Three quarters of those jobs are projected to be created in the following sectors: tourism, agriculture and fishery, and packaging.
So far, all the measures that have been adopted to provide more flexibility to the labor market have proved largely fruitless. In addition, the sharp reduction of households’ disposable income, couples with the implementation of strict austerity measures, has further eroded social cohesion.
Abulico
Forumer storico
ECB's Draghi is scheduled to speak in Portugal in 5 minutes.
ECB Draghi sees slow consolidating recovery.
ECB Draghi: Not resigned to allowing too low inflation for too long. Euro, relative price adjustments damp inflation.
ECB Draghi: Must be particularly watchful for negative spiral, sees risk of dis-inflationary expectations taking hold.
ECB Draghi sees slow consolidating recovery.
ECB Draghi: Not resigned to allowing too low inflation for too long. Euro, relative price adjustments damp inflation.
ECB Draghi: Must be particularly watchful for negative spiral, sees risk of dis-inflationary expectations taking hold.
Ultima modifica:
arkymede74
Forumer storico
gualberto
Charlie don't Surf
arkymede74
Forumer storico
si..adesos si!!
in realtà mi sono agganciato a quesot post ma il commento era alle quotazioni sul mot.. sono salite!!!hai visto il volume scambiato del bond linkato?
070162
Bond..... solo BOND
hai visto il volume scambiato del bond linkato?
sono quotazioni indicative ....
... e poi ..... io sono un briciolaro.......