Parmalat (PLT) I promessi sposi: Lucia Parmalat e Renzo Lactalis
- Creatore Discussione salcatal
- Data di Inizio
dariomilano
novellino
proveranno a chiedere quanto salcatal aveva detto, già tempo fa, sarebbe stato razionale fare: un meccanismo automatico che regoli gli spread oltre un soglia...
That Italy is now at most days away from technical insolvency is not news: after all we reported on just this a week ago, citing not some fringe lunatics but Bloomberg economist David Powell who said that "Italy would probably be forced into receiving a bailout if it were to face another two weeks like the last seven days." Specifically, "The country would violate the IMF’s definition of solvency if its average cost of debt were to surpass 680 basis points. The fund defines debt as sustainable if the debt-to-GDP ratio starts to decline before the end of the forecast horizon. A rise to that level would push the ratio up to about 131 percent in 2016 and marginally higher the following year, according to Bloomberg Brief estimates." This was a week ago... so one more week left, and things have not only not gotten better, they have gotten much worse.
Which is why we were not too surprised to read the following news from Reuters: "Italy will push this week at a meeting of euro zone finance ministers for a semi-automatic mechanism involving the European Central Bank or the permanent bailout fund ESM to reduce spreads of euro zone bonds over Germany, Italy's European Affairs Minister Enzo Moavero said on Monday."
Having done this for a while, we can tell Italy what the bond market, having perused the above sentence, just read: "semi-bailout." Because if Italy is implicitly demanding assistance from the ECB, and the Spanish bailout vehicle, the ESM, then things are about to hit the country with the €1.25 trillion in debt. It is all downhill from there. Oh, and here is what the bond market reads when they see ESM: "not so semi-subordination." For Reference: see the aftermath of the Spanish bailout. Because if in Europe the idiotic plan to avoid a bank run is to announce preparations for one, followed by furious back pedaling, it is only logical (and we use the term loosely) that an attempt to avert a bailout will be pursued by requesting a semi version. Instead, that action always and only leads to one thing: waving the sellers right in.
From Reuters:
Speaking about the automatic mechanism proposal, Moavero said: "The ECB may do it, but in a framework which would respect its autonomy. The mechanisms would make automatic something that the ECB has so far done autonomously. The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) may also do that, although it cannot act as a bank."
Asked if the ECB should re-start its Securities Market Programme (SMP) of buying bonds on the market, which was originally justified as needed to ensure that markets reflected its monetary policy decisions, Moavero said:
"We do not ask them, because we respect the autonomy of the ECB, but obviously any move to reduce spreads is welcome."
Moavero also said that he doubted if the euro zone's permanent bailout fund, the ESM, would be operational by early July as planned because of the ratification schedule in euro zone countries.
And count your lucky stars that is the case, because the second a class priming, bondholder subordinating mechanism comes into play, forget about comparisons to Uganda - Italy will be Spain right there and then.
That Italy is now at most days away from technical insolvency is not news: after all we reported on just this a week ago, citing not some fringe lunatics but Bloomberg economist David Powell who said that "Italy would probably be forced into receiving a bailout if it were to face another two weeks like the last seven days." Specifically, "The country would violate the IMF’s definition of solvency if its average cost of debt were to surpass 680 basis points. The fund defines debt as sustainable if the debt-to-GDP ratio starts to decline before the end of the forecast horizon. A rise to that level would push the ratio up to about 131 percent in 2016 and marginally higher the following year, according to Bloomberg Brief estimates." This was a week ago... so one more week left, and things have not only not gotten better, they have gotten much worse.
Which is why we were not too surprised to read the following news from Reuters: "Italy will push this week at a meeting of euro zone finance ministers for a semi-automatic mechanism involving the European Central Bank or the permanent bailout fund ESM to reduce spreads of euro zone bonds over Germany, Italy's European Affairs Minister Enzo Moavero said on Monday."
Having done this for a while, we can tell Italy what the bond market, having perused the above sentence, just read: "semi-bailout." Because if Italy is implicitly demanding assistance from the ECB, and the Spanish bailout vehicle, the ESM, then things are about to hit the country with the €1.25 trillion in debt. It is all downhill from there. Oh, and here is what the bond market reads when they see ESM: "not so semi-subordination." For Reference: see the aftermath of the Spanish bailout. Because if in Europe the idiotic plan to avoid a bank run is to announce preparations for one, followed by furious back pedaling, it is only logical (and we use the term loosely) that an attempt to avert a bailout will be pursued by requesting a semi version. Instead, that action always and only leads to one thing: waving the sellers right in.
From Reuters:
Speaking about the automatic mechanism proposal, Moavero said: "The ECB may do it, but in a framework which would respect its autonomy. The mechanisms would make automatic something that the ECB has so far done autonomously. The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) may also do that, although it cannot act as a bank."
Asked if the ECB should re-start its Securities Market Programme (SMP) of buying bonds on the market, which was originally justified as needed to ensure that markets reflected its monetary policy decisions, Moavero said:
"We do not ask them, because we respect the autonomy of the ECB, but obviously any move to reduce spreads is welcome."
Moavero also said that he doubted if the euro zone's permanent bailout fund, the ESM, would be operational by early July as planned because of the ratification schedule in euro zone countries.
guery61.5
OCIO
DAX
Per capire dove si va nel medio...il time è day
come dicevo qualche giorna fa... è la seconda candela che esce dal canale, quella da tenere d'occhio.
La prima, è fuorviante
Domani sera sapremo cosa vogliono fare
OCIO AI MINIMI
DAX
E si...chiaro segnale UP
Siete stati attenti ai min( 2 grafo)???
ORA CERCASI LIMITE INF DEL NUOVO CANALE
Allegati
Ultima modifica:
storm
Forumer storico
vedo che ce ne sono di shorters in giro da impalare.
Con i trucchetti dei 2 ultimi Lunedi hanno buttato fuori tutti e hanno imbarcato una marea di short.
Cosa dicono le righette?
Si sale ancora o no?
Vorrei sapere di Generali che ho preso quasi sui minimi. Che faccio Guery la mollo dopo un +20%?
Ultima modifica:
guery61.5
OCIO
vedo che ce ne sono di shorters in giro da impalare.
Con i trucchetti dei 2 ultimi Lunedi hanno buttato fuori tutti e hanno imbarcato una marea di short.
Cosa dicono le righette?
Si sale ancora o no?
Vorrei sapere di Generali che ho preso quasi sui minimi. Che faccio Guery la mollo dopo un +20%?
Buongiorno
DAX si muove e cerca il lim inf del canale. Quando ci arriva ...monitorare i min. su time 15'.
G....ecco come la vedo
Allegati
dariomilano
novellino
sal, domanda tecnica:
leggevo un articolo del 2008 che dice che il fondo di tutela dei depositi italiani era una delle garanzie sui cc maggiori a livello europeo in termini di cifra formale garantita, però a differenza della maggior parte degli altri paesi agiva expost (quando si verifica un fallimento il fondo chiede agli altri istituti di intervenire), mentre in altri stati ogni anno si ha un effettivo fondo su cui le banche depositano delle garanzie reali in caso di necessità(ex ante).
ora le mie domande sono due:
1) l'anno scorso hanno abbassato la garanzia da 103000 a 100000 per uniformarsi a livello europeo.. il sistema di garanzia è rimasto a livello italiano ed ex post?
2) se la 1 è affermativa, nel caso remoto fallisse fineco conviene avere più conti su più banche o nel caso di fallimento di un big (unicredit) anche gli altri istituti avrebbero cmq difficoltà a garantire..
(e quindi o uno rimane su fineco rischiando (sempre se non si fa in tempo a comprare azioni e TDS il giorno prima del blocco per fallimento) o se vuole sicurezza si sposta anche all'estero?)
leggevo un articolo del 2008 che dice che il fondo di tutela dei depositi italiani era una delle garanzie sui cc maggiori a livello europeo in termini di cifra formale garantita, però a differenza della maggior parte degli altri paesi agiva expost (quando si verifica un fallimento il fondo chiede agli altri istituti di intervenire), mentre in altri stati ogni anno si ha un effettivo fondo su cui le banche depositano delle garanzie reali in caso di necessità(ex ante).
ora le mie domande sono due:
1) l'anno scorso hanno abbassato la garanzia da 103000 a 100000 per uniformarsi a livello europeo.. il sistema di garanzia è rimasto a livello italiano ed ex post?
2) se la 1 è affermativa, nel caso remoto fallisse fineco conviene avere più conti su più banche o nel caso di fallimento di un big (unicredit) anche gli altri istituti avrebbero cmq difficoltà a garantire..
(e quindi o uno rimane su fineco rischiando (sempre se non si fa in tempo a comprare azioni e TDS il giorno prima del blocco per fallimento) o se vuole sicurezza si sposta anche all'estero?)
Ultima modifica:
Similar threads
