Obbligazioni valute high yield INDONESIA e Obbligazioni in rupie indonesiane

[Imark]

Fitch conferma il rating BB sul nuovo programma di emissioni obbligazionarie sovrane dell'Indonesia... punti di forza e di debolezza del quadro macro restano quelli già analizzati da Gaudente integrati dalle osservazioni di Fitch circa i rischi ai quali è esposta la valuta nazionale in caso di episodi del tipo "flight to quality".


Fitch Assigns Expected 'BB' To Indonesia's Global MTN Program

28 Jan 2009 8:48 PM (EST)

Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong/Singapore-29 January 2009: Fitch Ratings has today assigned an expected 'BB' Long-term foreign currency rating to the Republic of Indonesia's forthcoming USD4bn Global MTN program. The final rating is contingent upon receipt of final documents conforming to information already received.


In January 2009, Fitch affirmed Indonesia's foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings at 'BB' with Stable Outlooks. The affirmation balances the credit's fundamental strengths of its public finances against underlying risks to the country's external finances. Structural improvements in public finance management and thorough ongoing surveillance of fiscal risks are Indonesia's fundamental rating strengths.

However, Fitch notes that Indonesia's external finances remain vulnerable to heightened portfolio investor risk aversion, an accumulation of external assets offshore by domestic residents and heavy refinancing needs amidst an environment of tight external funding conditions and weakening external receipts.

 

[Imark]

Ed arriva anche Moody's ... interessante la notizia per la quale il Governo indonesiano si sarebbe recentemente assicurato disponibilità per finanziamenti internazionali per 5 mld $ (in aggiunta alle riserve di cui dispone, suppongo).

Anche per Moody's eventuali rischi potrebbero venire dalle pressioni sul cambio della IDR conseguenti ad episodi di flight to quality ed al de-leveraging che porti all'uscita di capitali dal paese (e dalla valuta), stante la dipendenza dell'Indonesia per il finanziamento del proprio debito da capitali esteri.

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's assigns a Ba3 rating to Indonesia's MTN program

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Singapore, January 29, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has assigned a foreign currency rating of Ba3 with a stable outlook to the Republic of Indonesia's forthcoming global Medium-Term Notes program. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Indonesia's Ba3 sovereign rating is supported by the country's moderate economic strength -- which includes the economy's substantial size, diversity and increasing dynamism -- and low, though improving, institutional strength. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"However, the rating also reflects the country's low per-capita income, and shortcomings in the rule of law," says Mr. Aninda Mitra, a Moody's VP/Senior Analyst and lead sovereign analyst for Indonesia. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"Amidst a deep downturn in commodity prices and in the global economy, Indonesia's overall economic resiliency is shielded by its relatively moderate openness to global trade and the ability of domestic demand to drive growth," says Mitra. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"While capacity constraints and vulnerability to supply side shocks remain present, trend improvements in economic resiliency are likely to ensure a relatively shallow reduction in GDP growth to 4 - 5% in 2009 from 6% in 2008," says Mitra. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"Such resiliency is further supported by improvements in the functioning of its federal framework, the government's anti-corruption efforts, and better tax administration," says Mitra. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The analyst noted that Indonesia has maintained its fiscal deficit at just 1% of GDP in the past four years, and that sound fiscal policy management could help further reduce the general government debt to 30% of GDP in the year ahead. Prudent debt management has also reduced the country's gross funding needs. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]On the other hand, the government's overall financial strength -- another important driver of the sovereign rating -- is constrained by its dependence on external financing. And the country's external payment position's vulnerability to the global credit crunch and to portfolio investment de-leveraging. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Exchange rate risks may also, over time, heighten external financing requirements sizably, and test the government's resource mobilization capacity. "These factors limit overall fiscal flexibility," says the analyst, adding, "moreover, subsidies and interest payments, which are expected at 25-30% of total government revenues in 2009, also limit fiscal space." [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The analyst noted, however, that Indonesian authorities have recently secured a $5 billion standby loan arrangement with multilateral bodies; and they could seek further credit enhancement facilities. "Along with recent improvements in tax administration, the success of such efforts could offset the downturn in commodity tax revenues, improve market access, and may even provide some room for limited counter-cyclical fiscal measures," says Mitra. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The susceptibility of the ratings to event risks is moderate, according to Mitra. Despite some loosening, reform-oriented policies are expected through the upcoming election cycle, which at this time seems likely to return to power the government headed by President Yudhoyono. Political risks from other factors, ranging from conservative Islamic political activism to Jemaah Islamiyah terrorism, have been contained. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Furthermore, financial risks from the un-hedged foreign currency debt of the corporate sector or currency mismatches in the banking sector's assets and liabilities were low and the quality of supervision and enforcement of regulations had improved. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"As a result, Indonesia banking and corporate sector is facing the ongoing global financial volatility from a stronger position than at the time of the 1997 crisis," says Mitra. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The stable outlook on the Ba3 government bond rating is premised on the authorities' ability to manage the country's vulnerability to the global financial market crisis and recession, while avoiding a deep and sustained deterioration in relative credit metrics.[/FONT]
[/FONT]

 

[Gaudente]

crolla l'inflazione

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAi51Uvo_A1Y
variazione mensile gennaio -0,07% annuale 9,17% rispetto all'11,1% di dicembre.

 

[Gaudente]

purtroppo crolla anche la rupia

L'articolo di Bloomberg non cita una ragione specifica, ma fa riferimento al calo generalizzato dell'export dall'intera area Asia-Pacifico. Probabile concausa l'atteso taglio di 50 punti base per dopodomani (nota: considerando il calo dell'inflazione questo calo dei tassi non dovrebbe fare svalutare la moneta , ma ormai sui mercati la logica e' finita in soffitta)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aaVXJnOl.gZU
comunque $ a 11.700 rupie dopo uno spike a 12.000
http://indahnesia.com/DB/Convert.php?from=USD&to=IDR

 

[Gaudente]

cambio in tempo (quasi) reale

http://www.ebloomberg.com/markets/currencies/asiapac_currencies.html
ora 11.625

 

[Gaudente]

Crollo dell'export

Esportazioni in dicembre -20,6% rispetto allo scorso anno
http://ph.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20090202/tbs-indonesia-economy-inflation-b246348.html
La bilancia commerciale resta comunque positiva
Exports dropped to $8.7 billion in December, the statistics agency said. Imports from outside trade zones fell 7.5 percent in December to $6.29 billion, from $6.8 billion a year earlier. The nation’s trade balance widened to $992 million.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aV46qis3hTZk

 

[Gaudente]

Taglio tassi 50 bp

Come previsto la banca centrale ha tagliato i tassi di 50 punti base, portandoli all'8,25% .
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aedCL8HwHQSA
Interessante questo paragrafo:
Bank Indonesia has reduced its policy rate by 1.25 percentage points to an eight-month low since December, while commercial banks have lowered the overnight base lending rate to 16.44 percent from 16.47 percent in the same period, according to central bank data.
Il tasso di riferimento e' l'8,25%, ma il tasso bancario sugli affidamenti e' quasi il doppio , il 16,44%.

 

[Gaudente]

altra gufata da Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adxqbrOyDyVA&refer=home
L'Indonesia bussa a soldi dal Giappone per far fronte al rempatrio degli investimenti esteri.
Si cita maliziosamente il calo delle riserve di quasi 10 miliardi di $ dal loro picco nel luglio 2008. In realta' nel mese di gennaio le riserve sono calate di appena settecento milioni da 51,6 miliardi a 50,9. E sono comunque molte di piu' dei 36 miliardi di riserve che la banca centrale aveva nel 2004.
Purtroppo il pessimismo regna e la rupia scivola a 11.887 contro $.

 

[Gaudente]

prestito dall'ADB

L'Asian Development Bank (la versione asiatica della BEI) annuncia la sua disponibilita' ad incrementare la linea di credito a disposizione dell'Indonesia dagli attuali 750 milioni di $ a 1.750 milioni
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/02/16/adb-allocates-175b-indonesia.html
Offre altresi' di garantire le nuove emissioni obbligazionarie del governo indonesiano http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/02/16/adb-mulls-guarantee-indonesian-debts.html

 

[Gaudente]

PIL IVq +5,7%

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agihOQAR5kY0
Bloomberg deve essere strashort sulla rupia per titolare "probabile rallentamento della crescita" la limatura dal 6,1% del terzo trimestre al 5.7% del quarto.
Le stime sulla crescita nel 2009 presentano una media del 4,5% (mentre qui in Thailandia si comincia gia' a parlare di recessione vera e propria)