Journal to portfolio afterlife (2 lettori)

[black-opal]

Diventare anziani è un problema, oltre alle malattie croniche si possono sommare i primi problemi cognitivi e si inizia a perdere colpi sul serio.
Ma passare il controllo ad altri è difficile, quando si parla dei propri soldi, e la tendenza comune è quella di rimandare anche se ci si rende conto del problema.

Even when they have established that they have cognitive problems, “very few people want to transfer control right away,” Dr. Lee said. Eighty-four percent of the survey respondents said they preferred to handle their own accounts until there were signs that they had declined further.
“The tricky part, of course, is figuring out when that will be,” Dr. Lee said.

A 2022 study published on the Journal of the American Medical Association’s network found that missing bill payments is often among the first signs of dementia.

A Retirement Puzzle: Turning Over Control of Your Money

It’s difficult to know when to get help managing finances. Communicating with loved ones, even when you don’t want to, is the first step.

www.nytimes.com

Mentre un articolo come questo del NYT fonisce qualche suggerimento pratico utile per la realtà americana, per una paese come l'Italia si trovano ben poche risorse fruibili.

 

[black-opal]

According to imf forecasts, Germany will be the only g7 economy to contract this year.

More than any other major European economy, Germany depends on China (see chart 1), meaning the Asian giant’s slower than expected recovery from zero covid is proving painful. Meanwhile, the gas-price shock of last year still reverberates—and gas futures signal that prices will remain roughly double their pre-pandemic level in the coming years. Energy-intensive industrial production has yet to recover from last year’s lows. And the country’s consumers are struggling: real wages have only just started to grow, having fallen to levels last seen in 2015.

The imf reckons that the country’s economy will grow by only 8% between 2019 and 2028, about as fast as Britain, the other European struggler. Over the same period, France is forecast to grow by 10%, the Netherlands by 15% and America by 17% (see chart 2).

Germany’s famous old brands—bmw, Mercedes, Porsche, Volkswagen—risk being left behind as consumers switch to evs. The combined market capitalisation of the four companies is now less than half that of Tesla.

Germany is both an old country, and one old in a peculiar way (see chart 5). Its working-age population makes up 64% of the total, just as in America. Yet Germany’s median age is 45, compared with 39 across the Atlantic.

Without immigration or more women and elderly folk in the workforce, the labour market will lose 7m of its 45m workers by 2035, calculates Enzo Weber of the Institute of Employment Research, a think-tank. As he notes: “The raw figures are dramatic.”

Overcoming these three challenges—geopolitics, climate change and demography—will require a nimble, digitally savvy and highly capable state. Unfortunately, Germany’s state is none of these things. The country’s success has for a long time masked the inadequacy of its institutions and administration, which is now being exposed. As Ms Schnitzer of the country’s official economic advisory council puts it: “The state is suffocating under its own rules and procedures.”

The German economy: from European leader to laggard

Its problems are deep-rooted, knotty and show little sign of being fixed

www.economist.com

 

[black-opal]

Io ho il 5% di bitcoin in portafoglio.

a portfolio with a 5% stake in bitcoin had a risk profile closer to a 90/10 portfolio than a 60/40.

Decomposing that risk reveals even more. Effectively, a 1% allocation to bitcoin has a negligible effect on risk, either in terms of absolute volatility or relative contribution. But a 2% allocation to bitcoin explains close to 15% of a portfolio’s overall volatility, a much heftier contribution. Meanwhile, a 5% allocation accounts for nearly 45% of the return volatility the portfolio experienced, and overall volatility was meaningfully higher.

A costless 60/40 portfolio would have turned in a Sharpe ratio (a return metric that accounts for risk) of roughly 0.77 over the past decade. Each portfolio that contains bitcoin improves upon that result, although incremental improvements peak at a 5% slice.

The 60/40 Portfolio Isn’t Dead, and Neither Is Bitcoin. But Mixing Them Can Be Lethal.

A little cryptocurrency can change your portfolio a whole lot.

www.morningstar.com

 

[black-opal]

Un simpatico articolo, trovare il perfect portfolio è una missione difficile se non impossibile. Anche conoscendo i dati passati 🤣

Reliance on a Single Strategy Poses High Risks – Price Action Lab Blog

www.priceactionlab.com

 

[black-opal]

Trovo che la parte più difficile per adottare una tale strategia non sarebbe tanto tagliare presto le perdite ma lasciar correre i profitti senza cedere alla tentazione di incassare. Il lasciar correre i profitti implica il non ribilanciare con l'aumento del profilo di rischio del portafoglio complessivo?

A Closer Look at "Cut Your Losses Early; Let Your Profits Run" Elm Partners

Elm: making sense of your wealth. Take the guesswork out of wealth management with our sensible-yet-sophisticated approach to investing.

elmwealth.com

 

[black-opal]

Mi sembra ragionevole interpretare la liquidità come bond con duration zero.

Cash and bonds are different investments

Cash and bonds are both lower-risk assets that deliver an income, but after that the differences become as important as any similarities.

monevator.com

 

[black-opal]

Come è normale, il ventaglio delle previsioni è molto ampio.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1693304888615207227

 

[black-opal]

Non c'è da sorprendersi di questi flussi, ora che i titoli di stato americani offrono un tasso di interesse reale positivo.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1693286265926688775

Però va ricordato che dopo il superamento del debt ceiling l'emissione di nuovi titoli è stata record. Il debito americano vola verso i 33 trilioni di dollari.

United States Government Debt

Government Debt in the United States increased to 34191150 USD Million in January from 34001494 USD Million in December of 2023. This page provides - United States Government Debt- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

A questi ritmi il rapporto debito/pil peggiorerà vistosamente nei prossimi anni.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1693286769255489656

 

[black-opal]

Spesso si dice che è meglio spendere i propri soldi in esperienze (che generano ricordi da conservare) piuttosto che nell'acquisto di cose.
Nell'articolo si fa però l'esempio dell'auto che oltre ad essere una cosa, consente di viaggiare (da soli o in compagnia) e fare nuove esperienze. Io aggiungerei anche un'altra cosa, indispensabile per chi vive in provincia, fornisce la indipendenza di potersi muovere a piacimento (almeno per ora ).

Your Answers May Vary - HumbleDollar

IN THE WORLD OF personal finance, there’s no shortage of formulas and frameworks for making financial decisions. But it’s also important, I think, to see these as guidelines rather than as rules. Consider the textbook view of money and happiness. What the research says is that, all else being...

humbledollar.com

 

[black-opal]

I prezzi alla produzione in Germania calano di brutto. L'inflazione non potrà che continuare a raffreddarsi.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1693529263243210914

Anche perchè la Cina tra un poco esporterà deflazione.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1693412943965122971