Journal to portfolio afterlife

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Indubbiamente se si innesca una spirale di rialzo degli stipendi, questo influirebbe sull'inflazione, ma con un soft landing negli Usa e con la montante recessione in Europa, non è ancora detto.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696502055374860622

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696485187280900402

 

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Russia’s crude oil exports by sea jumped by 880,000 barrels per day (bpd) week-over-week to 3.4 million bpd in the week to August 27, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday.

For months after Russia had said it would cut output, observed crude shipments from the country hadn’t shown a decline. They actually hit recent highs in April and May.

Russian Crude Oil Shipments Jump To 8-Week High | OilPrice.com

Russia saw its crude oil exports by sea jump to 3.4 million barrels per day in the week to August 27, an eight-week high.

oilprice.com

 

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Probabilmente ci sarà il solito rinvio della decisione.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696495952306000275

 

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Portafoglio oggi +0,41%.

 

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Qualcosa in più sui 7 trilioni di dollari di sussidi al settore energetico.

Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Skyrocket To $7 Trillion | OilPrice.com

Despite global commitments to transition away from fossil fuels, a new IMF report reveals that subsidies for oil and gas hit a record $7 trillion in 2022, driven by an energy crisis and political considerations.

oilprice.com

 

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Se lo chiede anche la fed di St. Louis.

This article considers fiscal dominance, which is the possibility that accumulating government debt and deficits can produce increases in inflation that “dominate”
central bank intentions to keep inflation low. Is it a serious possibility for the United States in the near future?
And how might various policies change (especially those related to the banking system) if fiscal dominance became a reality?

Conclusioni

As the result of the high current US government debt-to-GDP ratio and continuing projected
deficits, we face a possible dollar inflation uncertainty nightmare: Continuing deficits, if unchecked,
eventually will lead to a fiscal dominance problem. This problem seems likely, given the way Congress
has behaved in recent years. A significant rise in long-run real interest rates also seems quite possible,
given that the three decades of decline in real interest rates are poorly understood and may reflect tem-
porary demographic influences. Such an environment would hasten the triggering of a fiscal dominance
problem, leading to a messy monetization in the US, with ramifications worldwide.
Many things would likely change in a fiscal dominance scenario to make the inflation tax base larger
to facilitate the funding of continuing deficits with less of a rise in inflation. Interest on reserves would
likely be eliminated—otherwise, monetization would do little to relax the constraint on the government.
Inflation would rise, potentially by a large amount, if that is the only policy used to create inflation
taxation. If the elimination of interest on reserves were accompanied by a new large reserve require-
ment, inflationary consequences could be much lower.
If the bond market does not anticipate a fiscal dominance shock sufficiently far in advance (where
the definition of “sufficiently far” is determined by the duration of bonds held by the public), then bond
investors would be caught with losses on high-duration bonds. All of these changes imply that the effects
on banks and mutual funds and pension funds and others would be potentially quite dramatic.
In the 1970s and 1980s, major financial disintermediation from banks accompanied the rise in
inflation taxation because rising inflation reduced the real rate earned on bank deposits. Similar pres-
sures to disintermediate banks could rise again as the result of a rise in inflation taxation. If that occurs,
however, banks and their political allies will redouble their efforts to use regulation to protect the bank-
ing system from innovation and competition, as they have already been doing (see Calomiris, 2021).
Ultimately, the US may face a political choice between reforming entitlement programs and tolerating
high inflation and financial backwardness.
What bearing does the most recent debt ceiling agreement have on the prospects for fiscal reform
to avert monetization and inflation? The agreement was largely beside the point because it focused on
government expenditures that are not related to Medicare, Social Security, or defense spending. Indeed,
by doing so, it reinforced the view that there is no appetite for addressing the exploding deficits that
are being driven by those categories of spending.

https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/2023/06/02/fiscal-dominance-and-the-return-of-zero-interest-bank-reserve-requirements.pdf

 

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1696529186142539934

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696546005557149761

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696539327894114586

 

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Si iniziano a vedere dei segnali di debolezza per l'economia americana.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696528308073357439

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696625586507063404

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696594339974049942

 

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The social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, has obtained a license required for crypto payments and trading in the US.

Twitter (X) Acquires Required License to Add Crypto Payments

Twitter (X) has received the Rhode Island license which grants access to provide virtual assets services including storing and transferring assets.

www.cryptotimes.io

 

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Sapete come la penso sulla retorica ambientalista e cambiamento climatico nell' UE. Stiamo guardando dalla parte sbagliata del mondo. Questo non significa che non si debba fare nulla per salvaguardare l'ambiente (dall'inquinamento no dalla CO2) ma nemmeno dobbiamo sacrificare troppo la nostra crescita economica o rinunciare alla nostra sicurezza energetica. E poi la Cina inquina perchè esporta le merci al resto del mondo, è il cane che si morde la coda

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696675825309962608