black-opal
Vivere è pericoloso perchè si può morire
The interactive chart that follows presents our estimates of the fair value of value stocks relative to growth stocks. When the historical, actual ratio exceeds the upper limit of our estimated fair-value range, the chance for market-beating returns appears to be larger in growth stocks. When that ratio is below the lower limit of the range, such opportunity appears to be larger in value stocks.
The chart highlights the returns that value stocks recorded, relative to growth stocks, in the wake of a trio of their most extreme valuations.
- Following an overvaluation in 1993, value stocks underperformed growth stocks by a cumulative 8 percentage points on their way back to our predicted ratio (the median of our estimated fair-value range). It took three years to get there.
- An undervaluation near the peak of the tech bubble in 2000 preceded an instance of value outpacing growth by 59 percentage points before reaching fair value in about a year.
- In 2020, another undervaluation preceded a return advantage of 46 percentage points in about 20 months. Value stocks never quite got back to our median fair-value estimate before sagging again to a similar state of investor apathy.

Valuations, economy may favor value stocks
U.S. value stocks are poised to outperform U.S. growth stocks over the next ten years. Kevin DiCiurcio, head of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model® research team, explains why.