Journal to portfolio afterlife

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Riflettiamo sul fatto che per decenni gli avvistamenti ufo erano stati descritti come fake news per creduloni, o come banali fenomeni spiegabili. Naturalmente nel sito verrà pubblicato tutto ciò che è in loro possesso

The US Department of Defense has launched a website intended to be a “one-stop shop” for publicly available information on “unidentified anomalous phenomena” – UAPs, more commonly known as UFOs.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/01/politics/pentagon-ufo-website/index.html

 

[black-opal]

Despite changing market conditions and potential headwinds, we believe that the credit risk premium is persistent, and investors benefit over time from maintaining an allocation to credit.

Historically, credit spreads have varied inversely to the economic cycle and are usually magnified during periods of market stress as expectations of bond defaults increase and as liquidity is removed from the market. Conversely, during periods marked by stable to improving economic conditions, credit spreads are narrow as investors’ expectations of future bond defaults decline.

While there have been a number of periods in which credit spreads have widened, none is more prominent than during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008-2009. As markets dislocated and liquidity was withdrawn, the yield demanded by investors on high yield bonds in some cases exceeded 20%. Despite rising default rates and lower recovery rates, investors experienced solid relative returns during the period.

Questo è quello in cui credo anche io, ho scritto qualcosa in merito tempo fa.

The combination of higher relative coupons and lower duration compared to traditional core fixed income increases the portfolio’s return potential while also mitigating interest rate risk. Additionally, the evolution and growth of the investable universe of credit should continue to provide investors with opportunities to maximize the benefits of these attributes over the long term.

Credit, distress, default & the long term – Verus

www.verusinvestments.com

 

[black-opal]

Dividends contributed nearly 30% to the 10.4% annual total returns of the S&P 500 over the long run.

https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/-/media/us-media-files/documents/resource-library/market-insights/wagner-commentary/the_difference_of_dividends_aug_23.pdf

 

[black-opal]

While 2022 was a huge outlier year for the investment grade market, EMD is more prone to seeing this magnitude of drawdown (Exhibit 3), particularly in the local currency space as emerging market interest rates and currencies are typically more volatile than developed markets

Now, despite yields in other fixed income markets increasing, emerging markets still offer investors attractive all-in yield levels. While yields have corrected some from late-2022 highs, hard currency and EMD corporate yields remain well above long-term averages (Exhibit 7).

https://www.marquetteassociates.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Emerging-From-the-Depths-An-Overview-of-the-Emerging-Market-Debt-Opportunity-Set.pdf

 

[black-opal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1697974698460463284

 

[black-opal]

I gold miners potrebbero essere appetibili, il gap di rendimento rispetto all'oro è significativo nel 2022-2023. Forse sono stati i costi crescenti dell'inflazione ad incidere sulla redditività, i tassi in salita aumentano i costi di finanziamento, inoltre col petrolio in rialzo negli ultimi tempi i costi di estrazione crescono. Inoltre la volatilità rimane il tallone d'achille di questo settore.

Per i principali titoli del settore AISC medio a 1380$ contro il valore dell'oro attuale a 1940$ ed hanno in cassa in totale circa 15 miliardi $ di liquidità.

https://www.mining.com/web/gold-miners-q2-2023-fundamentals/

 

[black-opal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1698007031238578218

 

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I prezzi o erano troppo alti prima o ...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1698117692455084277

 

[black-opal]

Negli Usa la situazione è comunque molto migliore che nell'UE.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1698116282686550039

https://twitter.com/x/status/1697997559942508981

Una ottima sintesi.

 

[black-opal]

In alternativa, l'High yield può fungere da strumento per moderare il rischio, se utilizzato in sostituzione delle azioni. Il confronto tra l'indice Bloomberg Liquidity Screened Euro High Yield Bond rispetto all'Euro Stoxx 50 mostra una correlazione ragionevole, vicina al 64%, ma un Beta di appena lo 0,215 (vedi grafico 2). I rendimenti sono quindi allineati positivamente, ma sono solo meno volatili.

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