Journal to portfolio afterlife

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Il mercato dei derivati sui tassi di interesse è immenso.

These characteristics are similar to those of the global interest rate swap market, which is enormous. According to the Bank for International Settlements at end-2022 it amounted to a nominal value of $405.5 trillion, of which $145.5 trillion is in dollars and $109.3 trillion equivalent in euros. With a shift in the global inflation and interest rate outlook, this is leading to mounting collateral demand from those who have taken the fixed rate leg. It is developing into a major crisis which probably requires much more than central bank intervention, such as that deployed by the Bank of England in the case of LDIs.

Chi ha manipolato il mercato diventa il custode

This lack of respect for the law was demonstrated in an important case in the gold market, when JPMorgan Chase’s global head of precious metals trading and board member of the London Bullion Market Association was found guilty of attempted price manipulation, commodities fraud, wire fraud and spoofing prices in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures.

Inexplicably, with this track record JPMorgan Chase Bank was recently appointed joint custodian of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) alongside HSBC. This ETF is the largest in existence by far and its sponsor is a subsidiary of the World Gold Council.

There can be little doubt that access to GLD’s property would be a partial solution to urgent problems arising from over fifty years of official suppression of the gold price. As I have written before, after extensive and careful research, analyst Frank Veneroso concluded as long ago as 2002 that between 10,000 and 14,000 tonnes of central bank gold were either leased or swapped. And he further concluded that much of that gold “was adorning Asian women” so would not be returned.

Non so quanto sia una leggenda o se c'è un fondo di verità.

Worse still is the thought that the New York Fed might have sold off earmarked gold into the markets, which would explain why it refused to let Bundesbank representatives inspect its gold, and initially proved extremely reluctant to return only 300 tonnes out of 1,536 tonnes of Germany’s gold supposedly held in the New York vault. And presumably, it was the Bundesbank’s experience that prompted the Dutch Central Bank to repatriate 122 tonnes of its gold from New York, leaving 190 tonnes behind at the New York Fed.

Anche qui si spinge verso la proprità fisica dell'oro rispetto al paper gold.

The legal position in the US is shared with the EU and UK, whereby holders of shares in ETFs could find the property in them plundered through the agency of JPMorgan Chase and other central clearing counterparties, where, it seems, their status permits them to deploy bullion and other private property as they see fit.

Mah, tutto può essere. Ai tempi che furono non credetti a chi ventilava la crisi subprime e mi presi una tranvata sulla capoccia. Ma, d'altro canto, le previsioni catastrofistiche (anche ben documentate con elementi oggettivi) non mancano e spesso sono come tutte le altre previsioni, cioè sbagliate.

Currently, bond yields are rising strongly, which means that collateral values are falling. It amounts to a credit contraction of up to 30% on longer-dated bonds so far. And where collateral backs leveraged interest rate swap positions, calls can be catastrophic.
Fairly quickly, the gold price can be expected to reflect systemic and currency risks, which will trump any meme the three wise monkeys might come up with. Driving the dollar’s falling value measured in goods will be the funding outlook for the US Government. With interest costs likely to rise to $1.5 trillion in the fiscal year just started and the onset of economic stagnation if not outright recession, the budget deficit could easily top $3.5 trillion, perhaps eight or nine percent of expenditure. And this is at a time of diminishing foreign appetite for US Treasuries.

Unwinding the Financial System

This article looks at the collateral side of financial transactions and some significant problems that are already emerging. At a time when there is a veritable tsunami of dollar credit in foreign hands overhanging markets, it is obvious that continually falling bond prices will ensure bear...

schiffgold.com

 

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1710181809521066187

 

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1710220325168754818

 

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1710210388980355421

 

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1710204755841040443

 

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Ho venduto un cippino di AT2120 a 36€ e riportato la leva del portafoglio a 1,2.

 

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Questa è la mia tesi, ma lo era anche 6 mesi fa ed abbiamo visto come è andata

https://twitter.com/x/status/1710227445377327285

 

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Ho acquistato 0,5% di xdw0.

 

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1710263597098483975

 

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This article draws mostly from chapter 8 of my new book, Broken Money.

The Speed of Transactions vs the Speed of Settlements

This article draws mostly from chapter 8 of my new book, Broken Money. When we analyze the long-term potential of digital assets like bitcoin today, either from a bullish angle or a bearish angle, history can indeed be one of our strongest teachers. Although technology is inherently futuristic...

www.lynalden.com