Journal to portfolio afterlife

Consider the following: For every $1 spent on a GPU, roughly $1 needs to be spent on energy costs to run the GPU in a data center. So if Nvidia sells $50B in run-rate GPU revenue by the end of the year (a conservative estimate based on analyst forecasts), that implies approximately $100B in data center expenditures.
During historical technology cycles, overbuilding of infrastructure has often incinerated capital, while at the same time unleashing future innovation by bringing down the marginal cost of new product development.
The AI infrastructure build out is happening. Infrastructure is not the problem anymore. Many foundation models are being developed—this is not the problem anymore, either. And the tooling in AI is pretty good today. So the $200B question is: What are you going to use all this infrastructure to do? How is it going to change people’s lives?

 
Think about it this way. If the goal of investing is to buy something when it is cheap, those opportunities don’t exist in bull markets. Buying something of value but is truly undervalued can ONLY occur when no one wants to own a particular asset. There are a couple of caveats to that statement. As an investor, you must know the asset’s actual value and be willing to hold it long enough for the market to recognize it.
For most investors, investing and being willing to “be wrong” for an extended period is difficult. Eventually, psychological pressures outweigh investor convictions. Whether it’s performance chasing, herding, or loss aversion, eventually, investors abandon their positions before the value is recognized.

 

A probe into a leak from an undersea gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia is proceeding on the assumption that it was a deliberate act of destruction, according to people familiar with the matter.
There are no final conclusions, the people said. Officials are expected to give more details on the investigation later on Tuesday. European gas prices rose as much as 10%.

 
Accelera il prezzo del gas in Europa in scia ai sospetti della Finlandia per un possibile atto di sabotaggio dietro la perdita del gasdotto Baltic Connector, che la collega con l'Estonia.
I future Ttf balzano sul mercato di Amsterdam del 12% a 49,31 euro al megawattora, con il guasto che riaccende i timori sulla sicurezza delle infrastrutture energetiche in Europa, a poco più di un anno di distanza dall'esplosione che ha danneggiato il Nord Stream.

 
Oggi +0,03%.

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