Journal to portfolio afterlife

[portfolioafterlife]

The Paper Trail: Diversify Your Diversifiers | bps and pieces

bpsandpieces.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Proponents of active management strategies maintain that funds tend to beat indexes when markets are in a downturn, but that hasn’t happened this year, according to Morningstar research that’s cited in a Barron’s article. Out of almost 3,000 active funds, just 40% of them beat their passive counterpart in the 12 months spanning from June 2021 through June 2022. In 2021, when markets were much calmer, that rate was 47%.

Morningstar: When The Chips Are Down, Active Investing Falters – Validea's Guru Investor Blog

Proponents of active management strategies maintain that funds tend to beat indexes when markets are in a downturn, but that hasn’t happened this year, according to Morningstar research that’s cited in a Barron’s article. Out of almost 3,000 active funds, just 40% of them beat their passive...

blog.validea.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

As the bear market marches on, the main question becomes how much the risk of recession has already been priced into earnings. Comparing current earnings forecasts to those from before the pandemic, 85% of S&P 500 companies posted higher forecasts earnings per share for the next 12 months than they posted in February 2020, while 81% are trading at lower multiples than their forecasts. That divergence could be due to the effects of the pandemic, when many top tech firms saw their earnings skyrocket, or from the lowered valuation of their future growth thanks to higher interest rates. But the divergence could also be the result of “recession prep,” where the risk to future growth is causing lower valuations, the article posits.

Market Still Not Priced For Recession – Validea's Guru Investor Blog

Wall Street still isn’t factoring in the increasingly more dire threat of a recession, and investors cannot rely on the Fed to swoop in and save them this time, contends an article in The Wall Street Journal. Stock prices have been dropping recently because of lower valuations driven by rising...

blog.validea.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Ducking Market Crashes The Buffett-Shiller Way – Validea's Guru Investor Blog

An article in Forbes offers an approach for protecting yourself against market volatility, named the Buffett-Shiller method for the two market watchers who inspired it. Rather than a formula for beating the market, this approach will lower the risk of panic-selling when the market hits bottom or...

blog.validea.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Non per l'eurozona, rispetto ad inizio anno.

Stocks are down.
Bonds are down.
Gold is down.

Notevole

The yield on the U.S. Treasury bond has gone from a low of 0.5% in the depths of the pandemic to close to 4% today. So, a bond investor today is getting 16x the yield someone got 2.5 years ago.

Inutile chiudere la stalla quando i buoi sono scappati.

Investing is all about tradeoffs and each of the ideas above comes with a tradeoff and their own set of risks. It’s also a little disingenuous and easy for me to write about this now, after all these assets are down as much as they are. But my point is not to suggest that now is a good time to reduce risk. It is to give those investors who are lower on the risk spectrum some ideas to explore now or in the future as they seek conservative ways to manage their investments over time.

Four Strategies for The Risk-Averse Investor – Validea's Guru Investor Blog

By Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau) — Stocks are down. Bonds are down. Gold is down. There’s no sugarcoating it — 2022 hasn’t been kind to investors. The downturn in stocks and other assets reflect a number of concerning things. Inflation is the highest it’s been since the late 70s and early...

blog.validea.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Sono d'accordo col filo logico di Orsini, cioè i gasdotti sono strumenti di pace, per commerciare pacificamente e si presume con reciproca soddisfazione sia per il venditore che per il compratore. E aggiungo: se blocchi il flusso i gasdotti diventano strumenti di ricatto, se li distruggi diventano un casus belli. E aggiungo: il libero commercio in generale è una forma di cooperazione, e perciò di pace tra i paesi, se metti i dazi ne rallenti il flusso, se metti le sanzioni scateni la guerra economica. E la guerra energetica è la primaria forma di guerra economica, ma quando si distruggono le infrastrutture commerciali si sale di livello al terrorismo di Stato, come lo è nel caso del sabotaggio al NS1 e NS2. E come ho già scritto poco tempo fa, quando si apre quella porta (terrorismo di Stato) nulla diventa intoccabile, comprese le infrastrutture internet sottomarine, o altre infrastrutture critiche in altre parti del mondo. Se non è escalation questo, non so cos'altro lo sia.

Quanto al rischio delle armi nucleari, mentre potrebbe essere possibile e non necessariamente probabile l'utilizzo di una bomba nucleare tattica in Ucraina, francamente spero che prima dell'uso di armi nucleari strategiche prevalga il buonsenso. Prima di arrivare alla bomba nucleare tattica però, secondo me il conflitto in Ucraina si dovrebbe inasprire molto ma molto di più di quanto non lo sia stato sinora, con altre decine di migliaia di morti da ambo i lati.

Auguriamoci che si arrivi presto ad un accordo di pace o almeno che la guerra in Ucraina prosegua "solo" con armamenti tradizionali con un logoramento reciproco.

Infine, vorrei ricordare allo smemorato Rampini che la Truss ha già minacciato l'uso dell'arma nucleare pochi giorni fa, e le piazze non sono invase dai pacifisti.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Si potrà andare avanti solo "rubando" il gas ad altri, e pagando più degli altri.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

 

[portfolioafterlife]