Journal to portfolio afterlife

portfolioafterlife · 9 Ottobre 2022

Omicidio Dugina: l’intelligence USA accusa il governo ucraino – Analisi Difesa

www.analisidifesa.it

Centrali elettriche, reti idriche o più probabilmente i ponti sul Fiume Dnepr potrebbero finire in nel mirino dei russi in modo da rendere più difficile la vita a un numero maggiore di ucraini (secondo il ministero dell’Energia di Kiev oggi 700mila persone vivono senza elettricità e in 621.500 senza gas a causa della guerra) e l’alimentazione delle truppe di Kiev schierate a est del fiume sui fronti del Donbass.

Ponte di Kerch: se i russi usano anche i camion-bomba per “auto bombardarsi” – Analisi Difesa

www.analisidifesa.it

portfolioafterlife · 9 Ottobre 2022

The stock market cannot predict the future but it’s hard to believe the current bear market isn’t at least taking into account the potential for lower earnings.
Figuring out what’s priced into current levels is never easy so it’s difficult to say what the market expects to happen to earnings if we do go into a recession.
Even if you know what will happen to earnings in the coming years it might not help you predict what will happen to the stock market.

Will the Stock Market Fall if Earnings Fall? - A Wealth of Common Sense

Earnings growth vs. stock market returns.

awealthofcommonsense.com

portfolioafterlife · 9 Ottobre 2022

The Strong Dollar Is A Risk To Corporate Profits - RIA

The strong dollar remains a risk to corporate profits and asset prices as the impact on the global economies grows.

realinvestmentadvice.com

portfolioafterlife · 9 Ottobre 2022

As we showed earlier, the change in real yields is due to lower inflation expectations and much higher nominal yields. Over more extended periods, nominal yields are a function of economic growth and inflation expectations. Given that high rates are and will be a drag on economic growth and will dampen inflation, we think nominal and real yields will be headed lower over the coming months.
The current real yield on a five-year Treasury note is 1.62%. Over the last 20 years, the actual real yield attained on five-year notes has averaged 0.47%. Accordingly, five-year yields may be trading over 1% too high.
The scatter plot below from Fidelity charts weekly levels of the ten-year UST yield and 5×5 inflation expectations. The 5×5 inflation expectation is the implied five-year inflation rate expected five years from now. The current 5×5 inflation rate is 2.28%, similar to the current five-year implied inflation rate is 2.18%. As the graph shows, the current ten-year yield of 3.68% is 1.33% above the 2.35% trend line rate.

We took Fidelity’s analysis a step further and compare the ten-year rate to the five-year implied inflation rate average and the 5×5 inflation rate. This method captures the whole ten years of inflation expectations. Since 2010, the Treasury note was 0.21% above the expected inflation rate on average. Currently, it is 1.40% above it. Bond yields are over 1% too high based on inflation expectations.