Journal to portfolio afterlife

There is a quote attributed to Ben Graham that says that the market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run. What that essentially means is that flows can drive short run stock performance, but we would expect the true value of a business to be what matters in the long run. Although I agree with the theory of that quote. I think it needs some revision to be more accurate. The correct way to look at it in my mind is a lesson I learned from Ben Hunt at Epsilon Theory. That lesson is that the market is always a voting machine. In other words, flows will always drive stock prices. The reason it becomes a weighing machine eventually is that we would expect rational actors who are creating those flows to eventually care about the underlying value of the company the flows are going into and out of.
 
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