Journal to portfolio afterlife

[portfolioafterlife]

Nove mesi da dimenticare

Paola Valentini Non è un bel momento nemmeno per i fondi pensione. A partire da quelli anglosassoni che sono caduti in crisi di liquidità per via del

www.assinews.it

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Pessimism always sounds smarter than optimism because optimism sounds like a sales pitch while pessimism sounds like someone trying to help you.
Every past decline looks like an opportunity and every future decline looks like a risk.

People learn when they’re surprised. Not when they read the right answer, or are told they’re doing it wrong, but when they experience a gap between expectations and reality.

Napoleon’s definition of a military genius was “The man who can do the average thing when everyone else around him is losing his mind.” It’s the same in business and investing.

A lot of people don’t realize what bet they’re making. Maybe they thought they were betting on disruptive technology, but it turned out they were betting on low interest rates. Or they thought they were betting on alternative energy, but it turned out they were betting on subsidies and tax credits. Many bets don’t work not because your bet was wrong, but because you didn’t realize the bet you were making in the first place.

Once-in-a-century events happen all the time because lots of unrelated things can go wrong. If there’s a 1% chance of a new disastrous pandemic, a 1% chance of a crippling depression, a 1% chance of a catastrophic flood, a 1% chance of political collapse, and on and on, then the odds that something bad will happen next year – or any year – are … pretty good. It’s why Arnold Toynbee says history is “just one damn thing after another.”

Little Rules About Big Things

A few things I’ve come to terms with…

collabfund.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

As James Clear says, “The cost of your good habits are in the present. The cost of your bad habits are in the future.”
Same is true for decisions.

Short Term Pain, Long Term Gain — Joseph Wells

In September of 2020, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong made an uncomfortable decision. The company town hall meetings had devolved into open mic takeovers where the goal was to make the executive team squirm. A small number of vocal employees were asking challenging questions about social justice issue

josephcwells.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

How to Detach from Your Financial Wins and Losses

We never truly know whether an event is good or bad, whether it’s winning the lotto or a recession

rootofall.substack.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

The bottom line is that value stocks historically have outperformed growth stocks, and if you think the explanation is risk-based, then you should expect this outperformance to continue. And if you think the explanation is behavioral-based, then unless you expect investor behavior to change, you should expect value stocks to outperform as well. Also remember that the outperformance of value stocks has been in the academic literature for many decades, and legendary investor Benjamin Graham was advocating for the purchase of value stocks 80 years ago.

Valuations and earnings growth rates

By LARRY SWEDROEThe expected rate of growth in future cash flows plays a pivotal role in investment analysis and valuations. It is the faster rate of growth in those cash flows that results in higher valuations (higher P/E ratios) for growth stocks versus value stocks. Not only have growth...

www.evidenceinvestor.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Uno dei motivi per cui la gestione attiva non funziona.

The key to a ‘successful’ career as a fund manager is not long-term outperformance, it is survival. Making sure from quarter to quarter that your results are adequate so that you don’t find yourself in the firing line.

The major incentive problem at the heart of active management | TEBI

The active management industry has an incentive problem, says Joe Wiggins. The interests of fund managers and their investors are fundamentally misaligned.

www.evidenceinvestor.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

This bond market volatility index is freaking out

It signals turbulence in the safe haven market for U.S. Treasuries.

www.axios.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Will the 60/40 Portfolio Start to Work Again?

The jury is out on whether rising bond yields could turn the tides back in favor of the popular diversification strategy.

www.morningstar.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

The fear with the low-vol, low-volumes noxious mix is that such an environment could mean prices drop faster in the event of a selloff.

“In an overall bear market, you do not want low volatility coupled with low volume because we’re already in recessionary period, we believe it could get worse and the Fed will continue to raise rates and people might start taking money off the table,” said Steven McClurg, co-founder and chief investment officer at digital-asset fund manager Valkyrie Investments. “And when there’s low volume and low volatility, it will cause prices to go down faster, it could cause higher volatility.”

Bitcoin Becoming Less Volatile Than Stocks Raises Warning Flag

(Bloomberg) -- At first blush, Bitcoin becoming less volatile than stocks might appear like a positive development. But crypto traders are warning that in a low-volume environment, that might not be a great thing. Most Read from BloombergCore US Inflation Rises to 40-Year High, Securing Big Fed...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Anything Can Happen. Be Ready.

The best trade I ever executed was a loss. That is not a typo. I lost money on this trade. Actually, it was a series of trades. But it was executed with one decision and one combination of keystrokes. It was the summer of 1998, and it was my first year trading. The Long-Term Capital Management...

allstarcharts.com