Journal to portfolio afterlife

Remember: bad news grabs people’s attention. It sells. So while terrible things get highlighted everyday, there are also many great things that go unnoticed.
Morgan Housel is fond of saying: “The world breaks about once a decade.”
Life is often marketed as a series of black and white decisions. Right or wrong answer. Reality is different. Paraphrasing Annie Duke: Life is not chess; it’s poker.
 
 
Beyond DM sovereign fixed income, when the US stock-bond correlation is positive, Oil, Gold, and Energy total returns are negatively correlated with US stock returns. Figure 13 summarizes this finding: negative correlations are, however, relatively small, and hedging comes at the cost of higher volatility.

1667115536024.png


 
Below we’ve zeroed in on just gold (GLD) and diversified commodities (DBC) performance in months when the S&P 500 fell.

1667115760163.png


As previously mentioned, gold is the only major defensive asset class that’s outperformed short-term US Treasuries over the last 50+ years when the market has fallen. Along the way however, gold would have hit some very rough patches, including a drawdown of -67% in the mid-1980’s that would have taken about 34 years to recover from.
 
On average, the best brands portfolio outperformed the benchmarks by some 3% to 4% per year between 2000 and 2020.

1667115939427.png


Source: Boustanifar and Kang (2022).

This may not be too surprising since good brand recognition is linked to higher and more stable profit margins and more stable sales both in boom times and in a recession.
As we head into another recession in the US, Europe and the UK (at least in my view we are) investing in these brands can once again be a way to insulate a portfolio from the worst fallout that is inevitably going to hit corporate earnings.
 
Io sono contrario al reddito di citadinanza per come è concepito, banalmente perchè il sistema dei navigator non funziona.

Un reddito universale di base per tutti è teoricamente possibile, ma deve essere sostenibile economicamente per la collettività senza creare nuovo debito pubblico. Per i paesi del primo mondo, che stanno irreversibilmente invecchiando, un futuro iper-tecnologico e iper-robotizzato potrebbe essere la soluzione. Ma tra quanti anni?
Il reddito universale e incondizionato - Le Iene (mediaset.it)
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Alto