S&P 500 Le news di oggi (3 lettori)

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Chapter 11
The fourth quarter earnings season came to an end yesterday with Wal-Mart's (WMT) report.
Below we highlight the final earnings and revenue beat rate for all US companies that reported this earnings season. For the third quarter in a row, 68% of companies beat earnings estimates.
The revenue beat rate was really strong this quarter at 70% -- the highest reading since Q4 '04. Does this put the "strong bottom line, but weak top line" bearish argument to rest? (Click to enlarge)




Final Earnings Season Stats -- Seeking Alpha
 

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POSSIBLE BULL TRAP" By Carl Swenlin

* February 19, 2010
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Last week we were looking at a bearish reverse [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]flag[/COLOR][/COLOR] formation, but this week prices broke above a short-term declining trend line, effecting a bullish resolution of the flag and changing the short-term outlook to bullish. This was confirmed by a PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) buy signal, generated as the PMO crossed up through its 10-EMA.

The negative side of the picture is that volume accompanying the breakout and subsequent advance only has been averaging about 85% of the 250-EMA of daily volume, which does not reflect broad confidence in the move. This, plus other evidence we will discuss, makes me think the breakout could be a bull trap.

100219_cspot-1.png


Our [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]market[/COLOR][/COLOR] posture for the S&P 500 remains neutral; however, our Thrust/Trend Model (T/TM) could generate a buy signal if positive price action can continue and the Percent Buy Index (PBI) can cross up through its 32-EMA. To clarify, the PMO buy signal is one-half of a T/TM buy signal. The PBI is harder to generate, and is intended to keep the T/TM from reacting too quickly to short-term rallies.

100219_cspot-2.png


Additional negative evidence is that most of our short-term indicators are very overbought, as illustrated by the CVI (Climactic Volume Indicator) and STVO (Short-Term Volume Oscillator) charts below. Until those conditions are relieved, it will be difficult for the market to make upward progress. And it may take a price decline to clear the conditions. In this regard, it is possible that the support implied by the recent lows will be retested, if not violated.

100219_cspot-4.png


Finally, my cycle projections still call for a 9-Month Cycle low around the first part of April.

Bottom Line: The market can often overcome short-term overbought conditions, but most often these conditions are cleared by price pullbacks. The recent breakout could reveal itself as a bull trap.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Be prepared to adjust your tactics and strategy if conditions change.

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http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/100219_cspot.html
 

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"DOES FALLING 50-DAY LINE MEAN ANYTHING?" By John Murphy

* February 20, 2010
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One of our readers recently pointed out that the blue 50-day moving average is declining for the first time since last March, and asked if that makes it more of a resistance barrier. The short answer is probably. Although most attention is paid to "crossings" above and below a moving average, the "direction" of the line itself is also important. Near the end of October, the SPX fell below its rising 50-day line briefly before moving back above it within a week (see circle). Last July, the SPX also fell below its 50-day line for eight days before turning back up again (see box in Chart 2). At that time, the 50-day line continued rising as well. Since mid-January of this year, however, the 50-day line has been dropping. That makes the recent price decline a bit more serious. For recent damage to be reversed, therefore, at least two things have to happen. First, the SPX needs to close back above the blue line. Secondly, the blue has to start rising again.

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http://blogs.stockcharts.com/
 

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SEC to consider new short sale curbs next week


Reuters
| 19 Feb 2010 | 06:26 PM ET

By Rachelle Younglai
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Securities regulators will consider new short-sale restrictions on Wednesday, more than a year after the financial crisis provoked cries to rein in investors who bet on a stock's decline.
The Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to vote on rules that would restrict short selling in a company's stock if that stock fell precipitously, a person familiar with the SEC plan said.
The rule being considered is seen as a compromise for traders who opposed further curbs and lawmakers and some companies who had been pushing the SEC to reinstate the so-called "uptick rule" which dates from the Depression.
First adopted after the 1929 market crash, the uptick rule only allowed shorting if the last sale price was higher than the previous price. But the SEC abolished it in 2007 after concluding that it was no longer effective in modern markets.
Short sales are used by investors who believe a stock's price will fall. In a short sale, an investor borrows stock and sells it in the hope that its price will drop. When it does, seller profits by buying back the stock at the lower price and returning the borrowed shares.
Under pressure from Congress, the SEC proposed a number of measures last year to rein in short selling. Although the activity is a legitimate form of investing, lawmakers and bank executives blamed short selling for contributing to the downfall of now-defunct investment banks Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns.
The SEC proposals include a version of the uptick rule and other restrictions that would apply across equity markets.
The regulator also proposed curbs that would only apply if a stock fell by a certain percentage.
The SEC is expected to consider a "circuit breaker" measure that would trigger a so-called passive bid test, which would only allow short selling above the national best bid, the source said.
The agency is considering a circuit breaker that would kick in if a stock's price drops by more than a certain percentage such as 10 percent, said the source, who requested anonymity because the proposal is in flux and has not been made public.
The SEC had no immediate comment.
Any new rule needs the support of the majority of the five SEC commissioners. The two Republican commissioners are not expected to vote in favor of the short-sale restrictions.
INTERNATIONAL ACCOUNTING RULES
At the same meeting, the SEC is expected to discuss a plan to allow U.S. companies to use international accounting standards instead of U.S. accounting rules.
Under former SEC Chairman Christopher Cox, the agency had mapped out a plan that would allow U.S. companies to use international standards by 2014 instead of U.S. rules known as Generally Accepted Accounting Principles or U.S. GAAP.
It is unclear whether current SEC chairman Mary Schapiro supports that timeline.
Policymakers generally agree that there should be one set of global accounting standards instead of two sets of rules, the international standards and U.S. GAAP.
But there is debate over how to achieve that goal and whether U.S. companies should be allowed to use the international standards, even though dozens of countries have already adopted them.
The SEC is also expected to reaffirm its support for a single set of high quality global accounting standards.
(Reporting by Rachelle Younglai; Editing by Leslie Gevirtz, Bernard Orr)
Copyright 2009 Reuters. Click for restrictions.
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/35485453/
 

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<>FEBRUARY 20, 2010Credit-Card Fees: the New Traps

Law Allows Some Aggressive Lender Tactics to Continue

By ROBIN SIDEL

A new federal credit-card law that takes effect Monday could erase billions of dollars a year in fees and interest charges paid by consumers. But card issuers are already deploying new tactics that could prove costly for even the most cautious cardholder.
The law made some important changes. Card companies must now tell customers how long it would take to pay off the balance if they only make the minimum monthly payment. Customers can only exceed their credit limit if they agree ahead of time to pay a penalty fee. And unless a cardholder misses payments for more than 60 days, interest-rate increases will affect only new purchases, not existing balances.
Click for a guide on how to read a credit card bill.



Banning these and other profitable tactics is expected to cost the card industry at least $12 billion a year in lost revenue, according to law firm Morrison & Foerster. This has sent the industry scrambling to find new sources of revenue. So get ready for higher annual fees, higher balance-transfer charges, and growing charges for overseas transactions.
"There are countless fees that can be introduced and rates can go through the roof," says Curtis Arnold, founder of U.S. Citizens for Fair Credit Card Terms Inc., a consumer-advocacy group.
Consider the new offer from Citigroup Inc. The bank will give cardholders a credit of 10% on their total interest charge if they pay on time. That sounds enticing, except that if you don't pay on time, your interest rate is 29%.
The new regulations, dubbed the Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure Act of 2009, couldn't come at a worse time for banks, which have been trying to rebuild balance sheets hit hard by the collapse of the housing bubble and the recession. Now, their credit-card operations are getting pounded by a downturn in spending and sharply higher defaults as unemployed Americans and other cash-strapped customers stop paying their debts. Last year, Bank of America Corp. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. suffered combined net losses of $7.8 billion in their credit-card operations, and this year will bring more red ink unless there is a miracle rebound.
The banks could be hurt further as consumers try to clean up their finances, especially high-cost credit card debt. The average American was running a credit-card balance of just over $5,400 at the end of 2009, down about $200 from five years ago, according to TransUnion, a Chicago-based firm that tracks credit data. In such an environment, consumers may push back against new card fees or jump to a rival issuer determined to compete by keeping fees low or nonexistent.
All this represents a huge change from three years ago when banks were tripping over themselves to issue credit cards to just about anybody, and consumers were on a spending spree. Banks have pruned many of their more profligate cardholders, and are using higher transaction fees to raise more money from cardholders who pay their bills each month rather than run up huge balances.
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The biggest new tactic may be one of the oldest: raising rates. As long as credit-card companies inform you ahead of time and don't make any sudden rate changes, they are mostly free under the law to charge whatever they want. They can raise the rate on new purchases made as long as they provide 45 days notice that they are doing so.
U.S. banks on average increased the interest rate on their credit cards by about two percentage points between December 2008 and July 2009, according to Pew Charitable Trusts, a nonprofit group. Some consumers say that their accounts have been hit with sudden interest-rate increases even if they haven't been late on a payment.
Bank of America says it hasn't raised interest on credit-card accounts since the law was passed last spring, except in the case where a cardholder has repeatedly paid late.
In a statement, Citigroup said: "We understand that customers don't like price increases, especially in difficult economic times. However, these actions are necessary given the doubling of credit card losses across the industry from customers not paying back their loans and regulatory changes that eliminate re-pricing for that risk."


Card companies also plan to collect more interest by switching customers to variable-rate cards from fixed-rate cards. Variable rates, which are linked to an index like the prime rate, are low now. But they give the companies more flexibility to collect a higher rate in the future as long as they alert customers to the terms now. Many card companies have already sent out notices that change the terms of the card contract to a higher or variable rate.
Cardholders should expect to see more fees for extra services, such as requesting a year-end itemization of all your purchases, paper statements or getting extended warranties on purchases. "You're going to see a lot more tricks in terms of fees," said Robert Manning, author of "Credit Card Nation" and founder of the Responsible Debt Relief Institute.
Banks already are reaping more fees on overseas transactions. Not only are they raising foreign-exchange transaction fees—the cost customers pay for purchases made in foreign currencies—but they are expanding the definition of what qualifies as a foreign transaction.
In the past, people who made online purchases from foreign merchants, or who traveled to a country where the purchases are often in U.S. dollars such as the Bahamas, were generally immune from paying such fees. But Citi and Bank of America recently imposed their 3% foreign-transaction fees on all foreign transactions—even if that purchase is charged in U.S. dollars. Discover Financial Services also began charging a new 2% for foreign purchases last year.
American Express Co., which is known for its lucrative rewards programs, recently added new fees to its co-branded Hilton Hotels, Starwood Hotels and Delta Air Lines cards. Cardholders who pay late will lose their rewards points. They can reinstate them to their accounts if they pay a $29 fee. An American Express spokeswoman said the fees are consistent with policies on its other cards and is aimed at encouraging cardholders to pay their bills on time.
For new customers, the days of 0% teaser rates and no-annual-fee boasts are dwindling. After cutting back substantially on mail offers, card companies are once again trying to woo new cardholders. But this time around, the avalanche of pitches are for cards that have annual fees or balance-transfer fees as high as 5% of the balance.
Avoiding such fees is sure to get trickier. Only about 20% of U.S. credit cards currently have an annual fee, according to industry statistics. But that number will likely rise because most direct-mail card offers are for premium cards loaded with reward programs—but also fees. Plain-vanilla cards that don't have any annual fees (or rewards programs) represented just 11% of mail offers in the fourth quarter, according to Mintel Comperemedia, which tracks credit-card mail offers. J.P. Morgan's Chase card unit and American Express are among those that have recently introduced new cards with annual fees.
Consumers can fight back against some of the industry's tactics. You only need one or two credit cards that are widely accepted. So it can make sense consolidating debt on the card that has the lowest interest rate, assuming it makes sense after taking into account the balance-transfer fee.
True, shedding cards can hurt your credit score. But John Ulzheimer of Credit.com has a rule of thumb to preserve it while closing accounts: If you are able to keep your overall "credit utilization" on your cards—the amount of credit used as a percentage of your overall available credit—below 10% then closing accounts to avoid paying extra fees could make sense, he said.
So use the card or lose it because there may be a price to pay for inactivity. Fifth Third Bancorp is charging customers $19 if they don't use their credit card in a year.
And there are ways to avoid annual fees. Citigroup is alerting some customers that it is assessing a $60 annual fee on their cards. The cure for that is simple. If you spend $2,400 on the card in a 12-month period, the bank will refund the fee.
Bob Depweg, who owns a security-consulting firm in the Los Angeles area, intends to keep playing hardball in order to what he wants out of his credit-card companies. Since the law was passed by Congress, he says he has successfully convinced American Express to drop its annual fee on his card by threatening to take his business elsewhere. And when Citi raised the interest rate on his wife's credit card to 29.9% from 14%, he closed the account.
Regulations going into effect later this year will place even more constraints on credit-card companies. Starting Aug. 20, card companies will be required to review a customer's interest rate every six months. Consumers will have the right to tell a credit-card company that they don't accept a change of terms in their card agreement. The company will then be required to close the account and allow the customer to pay off the balance under the old terms.
Consumers who carry a balance may want to steer clear of retail cards, which woo customers with discounts. The money you save in the beginning could be eclipsed by the higher rates these cards typically charge as you pay off the balance.
Credit unions often offer lower rates than large banks, although some of their rewards programs are less generous than those of big banks. There are more than 8,000 credit unions in the U.S., and they tend to have pretty expansive definitions of who can join. The criterion for joining some credit unions is as simple as your Zip Code. Navy Federal, the nation's largest retail credit union, offers rates as low as 7.9% on a basic platinum Visa card for three million members of the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps and their families.
That compares with an interest rate as low as 11.99% on a Citibank Platinum Select MasterCard, touted as one of the cheapest rates around by Lowcards.com, a card-comparison Web site. The average rate at the end of last year was roughly 14%, according to the Federal Reserve.
Besides rates, reward programs are one of the other big considerations in choosing the right card. Cash-back cards are likely to offer the best deals in the new regulatory environment since banks have been making their own reward programs less rewarding. They are shortening the expiration periods, raising redemption fees or implementing earnings caps on rewards.
Although issuers have also been trimming cash-back rates in general—the standard rate today is 1% compared with 3% to 5% a few years ago—consumers can still earn higher rates by shopping in certain categories, such as gas or groceries.
"For the average person, if you're going to do a loyalty rewards program, simple is best," said Mr. Manning of the Responsible Debt Relief Institute. "Take the cash back."
—Jane J. Kim contributed to this article. Write to Robin Sidel at [email protected]
 

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WHY SO CALM?
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

2/22/2010 1:28:48 PM Eastern Time


Okay the gauntlet has been laid down and the Republicans will have to respond, but I don't think that's the source of the market's anxiety today. There is that feeling, like the calm before the storm. In the northeast, we know we'll pay a heavy price for a nice weekend with four days of nasty rain/snow and other weather conditions that prove global warming (I couldn't resist). In the stock market, we have to wonder if the revival of healthcare reform is just the tip of the iceberg (there I go again), and the gathering storm means more draconian versions of cap and trade and financial regulatory reform.

The animals aren't heading for the hills but the animal spirits of investors have been in hibernation all session.

After last week I expected some apprehension early in the week but there will be news that could spark the market in one direction or the other. In the meantime, the S&P 500 is at a key resistance point and on the verge of a major breakout. As the index lifts from 1,100 it should gather steam and rally to 1,140 quickly.
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· Equity Levels: SP ends off 13.4 points/1.2% to 1094 (near day low of 1092). The
R2K ended off 1.14%. The Nazz finished off 1.28%.
· Market Update – catalysts behind the selling today: 1) stronger dollar hitting the
commodity-linked groups and was a headwind for risk assets in general; 2) weak eco
#s (esp. the German IFO reading and the US consumer confidence); 3) pressure in
tech (which was due in large part to the weak BRCD/CTV earnings and a neg. article
in Korea Times overnight re Samsung and memory…..tech ended off its worst levels
though following somewhat sanguine comments from execs @ the Goldman conf); 4)
the Fed action (see details below) that raised worries about tightening (while people
are prob. reading too much into the SFP sale, people are on edge after the discount
rate action); 5) the FDIC bank report had a neg. tone to it and hit the financials when
it crossed @ 10amET).
· Desk color – desk was busy for the morning but slowed considerably into mid-day
and the afternoon. Def. more sellers today than we have seen for the last ~1 week,
both vanillas peeling back exposure and shorts laying out fresh exposures. However,
nothing aggressive – the weakness was pretty orderly and not panicked. Tone a bit
more neg. than we have seen for last ~8 sessions; the dip buyers tried to mount a
rally but this petered out by ~3:30pmET and stocks ended pretty much @ their lows
(and below technically important 1097).
· Equity Sectors – broad weakness today; tech, financials, HC, industrials, energy,
and commodities all fall more than 1%. Tech was hit on neg. earnings (BRCD/CTV)
and cautious semi comments from Samsung (in a Korean paper overnight) although
ended off worst levels as a few execs at the Goldman conf made sanguine
comments (INTC, MU, YHOO, etc). SOX off ~3% and one of the weakest groups in
the market (memory and equipment hurt by Samsung comments). Financials fall
~1.7% as the group couldn’t hold its rally from Mon (banks fall >2% - regionals
underperform large money centers). Commodity linked groups fall ~1.5%+ (energy
and materials) on back of dollar strength (underlying commodities themselves were
pretty heavy for most of the session today). The transports outperformed today
(helped by EXPD, which was up 7% after earnings). Retail too had a bid after a few
earnings came in better (JWN, M, and HD trade up after earnings).
· Best Performing SP500 stocks (from Bloomberg): EXPD, ODP, TMO, WFMI, MIL,
SNI, APOL, HD, M
· Weakest performing sp500 stocks (from Bloomberg): THC, RSH, FSLR, MEE,
AIG, CNX, EK, DNR, KLAC
· Commodities: Commodities were lower across the board today as a dollar spike
and very weak consumer confidence number drove commodities lower. Oil was off
nearly $1.50 to $78.85. Natural gas fell 11c to $4.78. Gold was off over $10 to $1103
after trading as low as $1100 in the early afternoon. Copper finished the day down
3%, near its lows of the day.
· FX: USD (DXY) was up 0.5% on the day, just off its highs of the session. The dollar
was up 0.7% against the Euro (at highs), up 0.5% against the Pound (near highs),
 

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