S&P 500 Le news di oggi (10 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
superbaffone
Guest
paologorgo
Chapter 11
Ue ale te le ricordi? Le famose candele posticcie
"L'oracolata"del giorno
, vedem
Spero di vederti al meeting, rotture di palle permettendo
uè, ci conto...
superbaffone
Guest
Ue ale te le ricordi? Le famose candele posticcie
"L'oracolata"
Spero di vederti al meeting, rotture di palle permettendo
sui 1060 mi hai detto che secondo te si saliva, il solito culo del principiante
Grecale
5min e na vita....Picasso
sui 1060 mi hai detto che secondo te si saliva, il solito culo del principiante
na bella longata
, ora però sta esagerando pensavo si moderasse, ad ogni modo oggi I° casco rosso sul ts e tra domani e dopodomani con i dati in uscita sono possibili salutari storni, ma il trend istituzionale 
voluto è rialzista , per ora saluti
Grecale
5min e na vita....Picasso
uè, ci conto...
Lo spero anch'io ma non dipende solo da me
, non posso fare 1600km per un meeting tra uomini Spero di combinare per quella data altri incontri e vi faccio una sorpresa
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
ANOTHER AGENCY NEEDS MORE (FINAL EDITION)
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/12/2010 9:38:06 AM Eastern Time
Stop me if you've heard this before...a government agency apparently comes up short in meeting their responsibilities and the knee-jerk reaction is more money and more authority. The latest is the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) currently headed by David Strickland, who is voicing a need for more authority. This call for more power comes as Congress is taking a closer look into the agency's role in the Toyota (TM) recall fiasco. Without a doubt new rules are coming for automakers, including making so-called black boxes to store crash data mandatory as well as braking systems that override the gas pedal. In the meantime, former NHTSA administrator Joan Claybrook testified the agency has been "viewed by the motor vehicle industry for years as a lapdog, not watchdog." If this sounds familiar it's because we heard these sorts of comments in the aftermath of Bernie Madoff and the stock market meltdown.
Claybrook decried the "revolving door" that sees officials leave the government to work for companies they previously regulated, often before the mandatory two year waiting period. It stands to reason it might be difficult getting a sweet gig in Detroit or Wall Street if too tough a regulator is assumed. It's interesting that NHTSA is coming under so much fire after a couple of years of major decreases in U.S. traffic deaths. On that note, a decline in traffic deaths was long overdue compared to successes in other countries. On this trend, industry observers rationalize Americans love affair with sports utility vehicles and big old pickup trucks made it harder to dent fatalities further. From 1979 to 2002, fellow English-speaking car-loving nations experienced massive declines in traffic fatalities.
Moreover, with respect to the current decline in traffic deaths, there is a correlation to the slump in the economy and fewer deaths. Still, deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) have come down significantly over the last two years.
The NHTSA has a budget of $870.0 million and 650 full time employees while the FAA has an annual budget $16.0 billion and 47,000 employees. Traffic deaths are 99% of all transportation fatalities. So maybe they could use more funds and authority. Nonetheless, it would have been better if requests for more authority came before Toyota had to recall more than 8.5 million vehicles. There are fundamental problems with the relationship of government agencies and those industries they are regulating. The grass is greener and the bench is deeper for the industry, but complacency and typical bureaucracy stymie goals just as much.
The Market
When the market drifts higher in the last hour of trading on no news it grabs my attention. Overall, the session didn't look like much but stocks climbed off the canvas more than once and hinted a big upside move is near.
Economic Data
Retail Sales
Was the February retail sales numbers that unexpected in light of the chain-store sales data last week, ICSC/Goldman weekly data, and what we are hearing on the 4Q conference calls from major retailers? In our opinion the data is not unexpected, reflecting a few trends we have communicated frequently. They include:
* Modest return of the household wealth effect (recently released 4Q data on household net wealth declined from the 3Q pace, but still increased strongly year to year)
* Improved sales trends in hard hit housing areas such as California, Florida, and Arizona. We believe this is indicative of (1) those people who rode out the housing downturn now seeing prices having rebounded from the trough; (2) first-time homeowners filling out their homes with furniture and clothes, for example (more space as they trade up from renting); (3) individuals trading up in terms of housing size to get out from underwater mortgages and being able to buy more home given the decline in prices.
* Improved jobs situation for those in manufacturing and temporary work; more people working, more consumption that is not only resigned to everyday necessities.
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/12/2010 9:38:06 AM Eastern Time
Stop me if you've heard this before...a government agency apparently comes up short in meeting their responsibilities and the knee-jerk reaction is more money and more authority. The latest is the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) currently headed by David Strickland, who is voicing a need for more authority. This call for more power comes as Congress is taking a closer look into the agency's role in the Toyota (TM) recall fiasco. Without a doubt new rules are coming for automakers, including making so-called black boxes to store crash data mandatory as well as braking systems that override the gas pedal. In the meantime, former NHTSA administrator Joan Claybrook testified the agency has been "viewed by the motor vehicle industry for years as a lapdog, not watchdog." If this sounds familiar it's because we heard these sorts of comments in the aftermath of Bernie Madoff and the stock market meltdown.
Claybrook decried the "revolving door" that sees officials leave the government to work for companies they previously regulated, often before the mandatory two year waiting period. It stands to reason it might be difficult getting a sweet gig in Detroit or Wall Street if too tough a regulator is assumed. It's interesting that NHTSA is coming under so much fire after a couple of years of major decreases in U.S. traffic deaths. On that note, a decline in traffic deaths was long overdue compared to successes in other countries. On this trend, industry observers rationalize Americans love affair with sports utility vehicles and big old pickup trucks made it harder to dent fatalities further. From 1979 to 2002, fellow English-speaking car-loving nations experienced massive declines in traffic fatalities.
Moreover, with respect to the current decline in traffic deaths, there is a correlation to the slump in the economy and fewer deaths. Still, deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) have come down significantly over the last two years.
The NHTSA has a budget of $870.0 million and 650 full time employees while the FAA has an annual budget $16.0 billion and 47,000 employees. Traffic deaths are 99% of all transportation fatalities. So maybe they could use more funds and authority. Nonetheless, it would have been better if requests for more authority came before Toyota had to recall more than 8.5 million vehicles. There are fundamental problems with the relationship of government agencies and those industries they are regulating. The grass is greener and the bench is deeper for the industry, but complacency and typical bureaucracy stymie goals just as much.
The Market
When the market drifts higher in the last hour of trading on no news it grabs my attention. Overall, the session didn't look like much but stocks climbed off the canvas more than once and hinted a big upside move is near.
Economic Data
Retail Sales
Was the February retail sales numbers that unexpected in light of the chain-store sales data last week, ICSC/Goldman weekly data, and what we are hearing on the 4Q conference calls from major retailers? In our opinion the data is not unexpected, reflecting a few trends we have communicated frequently. They include:
* Modest return of the household wealth effect (recently released 4Q data on household net wealth declined from the 3Q pace, but still increased strongly year to year)
* Improved sales trends in hard hit housing areas such as California, Florida, and Arizona. We believe this is indicative of (1) those people who rode out the housing downturn now seeing prices having rebounded from the trough; (2) first-time homeowners filling out their homes with furniture and clothes, for example (more space as they trade up from renting); (3) individuals trading up in terms of housing size to get out from underwater mortgages and being able to buy more home given the decline in prices.
* Improved jobs situation for those in manufacturing and temporary work; more people working, more consumption that is not only resigned to everyday necessities.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
BUSINESS FIGHTING ABROAD AND AT HOME (FINAL EDITION)
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/18/2010 9:43:50 AM Eastern Time
It was St. Patrick's Day yesterday but it was all about China. The
piece in The Wall Street Journal about U.S. businesses growing leery of China, where corruption has always been an issue but now legislation threatens to make counterfeiting and palm-greasing seem like minor hurdles, was interesting. The WSJ piece pointed to a pending government procurement rule that favors local suppliers who have indigenous innovation. In addition, national pride promotes state-owned companies as national champions.
There is no doubt our trade with China hasn't been free or fair, and something has to be done about it starting with real pressure from the White House. The timing of Google's (GOOG) challenge to the Chinese government to change internal internet policy wasn't great but brought the issue to the forefront. But throwing down the gauntlet has not only put Google on the cusp of being cut out of the fast-growing economy in the world, but other American companies are being roped into the brawl.
In his book "China House" Lawrence Klepinger states:
"If a Chinese person's face is ever threatened, or actually disgraced, they will remember it forever, waiting for the chance to "regain" their perceived lost pride. There is no exception to this rule."
The leaders of China, just like the leaders of North Korea and Venezuela, and even increasingly western nations, understand the need for a villain that can deflect from their own shortcomings and lack of progress. That lack of progress can be economic or human rights or both, but for China which has a history of being dominated by foreigners the rulers there must grapple with increased demands for greater rights that always seem to accompany prosperity. The fact is that prosperity can't be sustained without widespread rights of citizens whose freedoms play a major role in keeping the economic wheel moving. China needs to stoke domestic demand and America not only wants a piece of that action, we demand a piece of that action. And for those that continue to call it smoke and mirrors, yesterday the World Bank hiked estimates for China's economy.
World Bank Estimates
* GDP now seen at 9.5% from 8.7%.
* Currency reserve end of 2010 of $2.8 trillion and end of 2011 $3.28 trillion.
* Trade surplus of $301.0 billion in 2010, $341.0 billion in 2011; $284.0 billion currently.
My take is that this is a problem that will get larger, so now that the first shot has been fired across the bow, the troops need to be mobilized. Mr. Klepinger spent many years in China and he is down on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) not the people, but thinks China is a house of cards. He sees the economic bubble blowing up and then riots and blood in the streets. I will say that I would hate to be the guy that told people that gave up bikes for cars they have to go back to bikes. Maybe, that is why we need to strike now. China looks like an economic fortress or like the pig that built the house out of brick while Washington has been busy exchanging the wood in our economic house for straw. So, there could be pain. But there has to be a showdown. I would hope that the Administration moves ahead and calls China a currency manipulator, too.
I have to say that there was a chart from the WSJ article that stood out to me, how China has been able to grow even as foreign direct investment (FDI) waned. I find it remarkable that even as direct foreign investment in China was surging more than 100% since 2000 it couldn't keep pace with GDP growth. Last year, FDI in China dipped to $90.2 billion from $92.4 billion but as the chart in the WSJ illustrates it was still impressive. In the meantime 2008 FDI in the United States came in at $319.7 billion which sounds impressive but the peak came in 2000 at $321.3 billion.
I'm not sure if China thinks it can deal with fewer investments from the United States but my guess is they must be confident as the entire world is clamoring to get into the mix. In the meantime, America has already become less important for the economic development of domestic China.
The questions going into this battle are:
Will the White House join bipartisan legislation making it easier to label China a currency manipulator? Five senators, including Democrats Charles Schumer, Debbie Stabenow, and Sherrod Brown, joined Republicans Lindsey Graham and Sam Brownback in an effort to get China to adjust the Yuan higher. If the White House is going to double exports in five years it must level the playing field.
With the U.S. less important with respect to direct foreign investment, and China sitting on $700.0 billion plus of U.S. treasuries, can we blink without resorting to tariffs and other protectionist measures?
The WSJ piece began with news authorities in a wealthy province near Shanghai assailing the quality of luxury clothing brands from the West, citing among others Hermes, Hugo Boss, Tommy Hilfinger, and Dolce & Gabbana. I have to say that I think they are right on this score. These big name brands take consumers for granted. It's just like Toyota (TM) riding its reputation while allowing quality to decline. It's just like politicians that have wrecked urban areas still counting on the votes of the poor. I never buy any of those brands because they are too expensive. Newsflash to China; you should be more upset with your centralized government and lack of human rights than with overpriced head scarves. The dictators in China understand this and will work hard to focus animosity toward the United States and other "outsiders" looking to change the rules.
Speaking of changing the rules...
There will be an attempt to force down the Dodd bill this week, giving Americans that old one-two punch of healthcare and financial regulatory reform. I can see the jobs just start gushing in on Monday. Both bills are baby steps toward the ultimate goal of completely bringing big businesses to their knees.
The Dodd bill shifts responsibilities and makes some agencies irrelevant. There are a few things in the Dodd bill that are no-brainers, but it leaves open the door for more draconian rules that go beyond preventive measures and are more punitive.
Federal Reserve
* Will house the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
* Will have regulatory power over banks with $50.0 billion plus in assets.
FDIC
* Has supervision over state banks and thrifts of all sizes with assets of less than $50.0 billion.
OCC
* Regulatory power over national banks with assets less than $50.0 billion.
The GAO will be able to audit emergency action by the Fed; I like that, but what about other actions? There should be better disclosures in the mortgage area, but making firms take on 5% of credit risks means costs will flow through the system that hits consumers in the wallet. Hedge funs with more than $100.0 million have to register with the SEC but investment advisers would need $100.0 million not $25.0 million before coming under the federal regulation, states would pick up the slack, whether they have the resources or not. Here is the move designed to let unions take over publicly traded companies. The SEC will have the authority to let shareholders nominate company directors.
Moreover, shareholders will have non-binding votes on executive pay. Yikes, this is maddening. I know when a pilot isn't doing a shaky job by the smoothness of the landing and takeoff but I would rather leave it to the airline to pick the pilots. These maneuvers will exacerbate the war of envy and class warfare. Snatching $50.0 billion from banks will create another lockbox to be raided and used anyway seen fit. Just the notion that Wall Street banks should pay for failed automakers is an example of how this fund will be abused and used to cover mistakes made by the federal government. I bet when the time comes that lockbox will be empty. In the meantime, why can't we employ anti-trust laws or bankruptcy laws to unwind these so-called too big to fail banks?
These rules are all about power and not about consumers. In fact, the end result will be less credit to businesses and consumers. We are going to slow up the growth of financial companies and that means they will be less competitive on the global stage. Like I said there a few good points in the Dodd bill, but the healthcare bill is just frightening. If it passes I think that the market will recoil but I don't think the long-term trend will change because most of the time it takes time to work in changes. They would be hard to change but not impossible. We will know much more after the CBO score but ever since that Elmendorf visit to the White House, CBO scores have been very suspicious. Yesterday, the market drifted lower and almost saw gains wiped out as Volker and Bernanke testified. Once their appearances were over stocks resumed their rally. There is legitimate fear of these bills and what they could do to the nation as attempts are made to morph them in the future.
But, I'm not shifting overall strategy until the trend changes.
Technical View
Old school market watchers say that the Transportation Index must corroborate breakouts of major equity indices, especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That's what's happening. Even as oil is breaking out, so, too, transportation stocks are powering forward.
I've been saying all along that the magic number is 10,750 on DJIA and it was tickled yesterday. I think that there could be some resistance here up to 11,000. The next major leg higher lifts the Dow near 12,000. If this resistance point proves too stubborn and stocks pullback I think that 10,450 would be pivotal support point on the downside.
Positive Signs
After the close Nike (NKE) blew away the Street and its shares were at a new high in the after market. In addition, Guess (GES) saw its profits more than double sending its shares higher, too (stock was an open recommendation on our Hotline service). Moreover, many companies that report this morning also traded nicely.
FedEx (FDX) saw 4.9 million shares change hands up from typical volume of 3.0 million. The stock was up 1.3% even though the company has only bested the consensus twice over the past year. Morgan Keegan upgraded the stock earlier this month. The Company reported earnings of $0.76 per share on revenue of $8.70 billion; both above the Street's expectations of $0.72 per share and $8.37 billion respectively.
Gamestop (GME) has been a disaster for a long time, explaining the downgrades last month. In addition, insiders have sold 2.4 million shares via 7 transactions. Plus, consensus of $1.28 per share is down from $1.57 per share a few months ago. The Street is looking for sales of $3.45 billion.
Stein Mart (SMRT) saw 537,000 shares trade yesterday, more than twice the daily average, sending the shares up more than 4.0%. Investors are champing at the bit as the company has beaten the consensus in each of the last three periods by an average of more than 200%. Consensus is at $0.17 per share on $337.55 million.
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index
Much in the same fashion as the PPI data yesterday, today's CPI data necessarily wasn't as benign as it appeared. Headline CPI was unchanged in February relative to a +0.1% consensus. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was in line with consensus at +0.1%. Going through the report, while there were declines in energy across the board, food prices displayed fairly strong increases. The indexes for pork and eggs, for example, advanced 2.6%. If energy prices were to rise in the summer months, reflecting increased driving given generally improved economic conditions, food and energy prices may become a headwind to the consumer.
Elsewhere, apparel prices were down 0.7% in February. As our retail sector analyst Brian Sozzi explains, the decline fits very well with what most retail management teams are saying...they are lowering average unit retail prices in the hopes of driving conversion and inventory turns. With operations being lean following a year of tight working capital management, the thinking is they can drive operating margin by driving greater volume as opposed to focusing on prices solely. Price hikes may come later; however, as supply chain cost inflation is already starting to be seen by some and retailers pullback on promotional strategies.
Initial Jobless Claims
At this point in the claims data no news on the headline may be good news. For the week-ended March 13, initial claims numbered 457,000, down 5,000 week to week, and roughly in line to the 455,000 consensus. The claims data, in this regard, has shown a leveling off. However, this is somewhat counteracted by another week of increase in those claiming emergency benefits, which rose 360,000 to 5.89 million last week. Moreover, continuing claims increased 12,000 to 4.58 million, slightly above consensus forecasts.
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/18/2010 9:43:50 AM Eastern Time
It was St. Patrick's Day yesterday but it was all about China. The
piece in The Wall Street Journal about U.S. businesses growing leery of China, where corruption has always been an issue but now legislation threatens to make counterfeiting and palm-greasing seem like minor hurdles, was interesting. The WSJ piece pointed to a pending government procurement rule that favors local suppliers who have indigenous innovation. In addition, national pride promotes state-owned companies as national champions.
There is no doubt our trade with China hasn't been free or fair, and something has to be done about it starting with real pressure from the White House. The timing of Google's (GOOG) challenge to the Chinese government to change internal internet policy wasn't great but brought the issue to the forefront. But throwing down the gauntlet has not only put Google on the cusp of being cut out of the fast-growing economy in the world, but other American companies are being roped into the brawl.
In his book "China House" Lawrence Klepinger states:
"If a Chinese person's face is ever threatened, or actually disgraced, they will remember it forever, waiting for the chance to "regain" their perceived lost pride. There is no exception to this rule."
The leaders of China, just like the leaders of North Korea and Venezuela, and even increasingly western nations, understand the need for a villain that can deflect from their own shortcomings and lack of progress. That lack of progress can be economic or human rights or both, but for China which has a history of being dominated by foreigners the rulers there must grapple with increased demands for greater rights that always seem to accompany prosperity. The fact is that prosperity can't be sustained without widespread rights of citizens whose freedoms play a major role in keeping the economic wheel moving. China needs to stoke domestic demand and America not only wants a piece of that action, we demand a piece of that action. And for those that continue to call it smoke and mirrors, yesterday the World Bank hiked estimates for China's economy.
World Bank Estimates
* GDP now seen at 9.5% from 8.7%.
* Currency reserve end of 2010 of $2.8 trillion and end of 2011 $3.28 trillion.
* Trade surplus of $301.0 billion in 2010, $341.0 billion in 2011; $284.0 billion currently.
My take is that this is a problem that will get larger, so now that the first shot has been fired across the bow, the troops need to be mobilized. Mr. Klepinger spent many years in China and he is down on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) not the people, but thinks China is a house of cards. He sees the economic bubble blowing up and then riots and blood in the streets. I will say that I would hate to be the guy that told people that gave up bikes for cars they have to go back to bikes. Maybe, that is why we need to strike now. China looks like an economic fortress or like the pig that built the house out of brick while Washington has been busy exchanging the wood in our economic house for straw. So, there could be pain. But there has to be a showdown. I would hope that the Administration moves ahead and calls China a currency manipulator, too.
I have to say that there was a chart from the WSJ article that stood out to me, how China has been able to grow even as foreign direct investment (FDI) waned. I find it remarkable that even as direct foreign investment in China was surging more than 100% since 2000 it couldn't keep pace with GDP growth. Last year, FDI in China dipped to $90.2 billion from $92.4 billion but as the chart in the WSJ illustrates it was still impressive. In the meantime 2008 FDI in the United States came in at $319.7 billion which sounds impressive but the peak came in 2000 at $321.3 billion.
The questions going into this battle are:
Will the White House join bipartisan legislation making it easier to label China a currency manipulator? Five senators, including Democrats Charles Schumer, Debbie Stabenow, and Sherrod Brown, joined Republicans Lindsey Graham and Sam Brownback in an effort to get China to adjust the Yuan higher. If the White House is going to double exports in five years it must level the playing field.
With the U.S. less important with respect to direct foreign investment, and China sitting on $700.0 billion plus of U.S. treasuries, can we blink without resorting to tariffs and other protectionist measures?
Speaking of changing the rules...
There will be an attempt to force down the Dodd bill this week, giving Americans that old one-two punch of healthcare and financial regulatory reform. I can see the jobs just start gushing in on Monday. Both bills are baby steps toward the ultimate goal of completely bringing big businesses to their knees.
The Dodd bill shifts responsibilities and makes some agencies irrelevant. There are a few things in the Dodd bill that are no-brainers, but it leaves open the door for more draconian rules that go beyond preventive measures and are more punitive.
Federal Reserve
* Will house the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
* Will have regulatory power over banks with $50.0 billion plus in assets.
FDIC
* Has supervision over state banks and thrifts of all sizes with assets of less than $50.0 billion.
OCC
* Regulatory power over national banks with assets less than $50.0 billion.
The GAO will be able to audit emergency action by the Fed; I like that, but what about other actions? There should be better disclosures in the mortgage area, but making firms take on 5% of credit risks means costs will flow through the system that hits consumers in the wallet. Hedge funs with more than $100.0 million have to register with the SEC but investment advisers would need $100.0 million not $25.0 million before coming under the federal regulation, states would pick up the slack, whether they have the resources or not. Here is the move designed to let unions take over publicly traded companies. The SEC will have the authority to let shareholders nominate company directors.
Moreover, shareholders will have non-binding votes on executive pay. Yikes, this is maddening. I know when a pilot isn't doing a shaky job by the smoothness of the landing and takeoff but I would rather leave it to the airline to pick the pilots. These maneuvers will exacerbate the war of envy and class warfare. Snatching $50.0 billion from banks will create another lockbox to be raided and used anyway seen fit. Just the notion that Wall Street banks should pay for failed automakers is an example of how this fund will be abused and used to cover mistakes made by the federal government. I bet when the time comes that lockbox will be empty. In the meantime, why can't we employ anti-trust laws or bankruptcy laws to unwind these so-called too big to fail banks?
These rules are all about power and not about consumers. In fact, the end result will be less credit to businesses and consumers. We are going to slow up the growth of financial companies and that means they will be less competitive on the global stage. Like I said there a few good points in the Dodd bill, but the healthcare bill is just frightening. If it passes I think that the market will recoil but I don't think the long-term trend will change because most of the time it takes time to work in changes. They would be hard to change but not impossible. We will know much more after the CBO score but ever since that Elmendorf visit to the White House, CBO scores have been very suspicious. Yesterday, the market drifted lower and almost saw gains wiped out as Volker and Bernanke testified. Once their appearances were over stocks resumed their rally. There is legitimate fear of these bills and what they could do to the nation as attempts are made to morph them in the future.
But, I'm not shifting overall strategy until the trend changes.
Technical View
Old school market watchers say that the Transportation Index must corroborate breakouts of major equity indices, especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That's what's happening. Even as oil is breaking out, so, too, transportation stocks are powering forward.
I've been saying all along that the magic number is 10,750 on DJIA and it was tickled yesterday. I think that there could be some resistance here up to 11,000. The next major leg higher lifts the Dow near 12,000. If this resistance point proves too stubborn and stocks pullback I think that 10,450 would be pivotal support point on the downside.
Positive Signs
After the close Nike (NKE) blew away the Street and its shares were at a new high in the after market. In addition, Guess (GES) saw its profits more than double sending its shares higher, too (stock was an open recommendation on our Hotline service). Moreover, many companies that report this morning also traded nicely.
FedEx (FDX) saw 4.9 million shares change hands up from typical volume of 3.0 million. The stock was up 1.3% even though the company has only bested the consensus twice over the past year. Morgan Keegan upgraded the stock earlier this month. The Company reported earnings of $0.76 per share on revenue of $8.70 billion; both above the Street's expectations of $0.72 per share and $8.37 billion respectively.
Gamestop (GME) has been a disaster for a long time, explaining the downgrades last month. In addition, insiders have sold 2.4 million shares via 7 transactions. Plus, consensus of $1.28 per share is down from $1.57 per share a few months ago. The Street is looking for sales of $3.45 billion.
Stein Mart (SMRT) saw 537,000 shares trade yesterday, more than twice the daily average, sending the shares up more than 4.0%. Investors are champing at the bit as the company has beaten the consensus in each of the last three periods by an average of more than 200%. Consensus is at $0.17 per share on $337.55 million.
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index
Much in the same fashion as the PPI data yesterday, today's CPI data necessarily wasn't as benign as it appeared. Headline CPI was unchanged in February relative to a +0.1% consensus. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was in line with consensus at +0.1%. Going through the report, while there were declines in energy across the board, food prices displayed fairly strong increases. The indexes for pork and eggs, for example, advanced 2.6%. If energy prices were to rise in the summer months, reflecting increased driving given generally improved economic conditions, food and energy prices may become a headwind to the consumer.
Elsewhere, apparel prices were down 0.7% in February. As our retail sector analyst Brian Sozzi explains, the decline fits very well with what most retail management teams are saying...they are lowering average unit retail prices in the hopes of driving conversion and inventory turns. With operations being lean following a year of tight working capital management, the thinking is they can drive operating margin by driving greater volume as opposed to focusing on prices solely. Price hikes may come later; however, as supply chain cost inflation is already starting to be seen by some and retailers pullback on promotional strategies.
Initial Jobless Claims
At this point in the claims data no news on the headline may be good news. For the week-ended March 13, initial claims numbered 457,000, down 5,000 week to week, and roughly in line to the 455,000 consensus. The claims data, in this regard, has shown a leveling off. However, this is somewhat counteracted by another week of increase in those claiming emergency benefits, which rose 360,000 to 5.89 million last week. Moreover, continuing claims increased 12,000 to 4.58 million, slightly above consensus forecasts.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
TAKE THIS JOBS BILL AND...
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/18/2010 2:13:17 PM Eastern Time
You can feel the angst in the air as the healthcare plan creeps closer to becoming law despite widespread public opposition and massive fear in the business community. It's all just so much baloney. Take the so-called jobs bill that President Obama signed today. It was presented to the public as an $18.0 billion bill but is really a $38.0 billion bill when you add in the $20.0 billion set aside for construction. That amount is going to be offset by taxes on foreign bank accounts. Well, I thought last year's $860.0 billion stimulus bill was a jobs and construction bill; it was certainly sold that way. Today's bill is just a harebrained scheme that has no chance of making a difference to a job market that has lost 8.4 million jobs since December 2007. And like all the plans from the White House designed to help the nation, this one comes with dumb and discriminatory strings attached.
Employers will be allowed to skip the 6.2% contribution to social security tax and could get a $1,000 bonus if a new hire stays on for more than a year. The catch for the tax break is that the new hire must have been unemployed at least 60 days or longer. Every one of these deals has some kind of stipulation that mitigates potential success and punishes some for being more fortunate than others. As it stands, the best estimate of job growth from this bill is 250,000. As for that $20.0 billion for construction I'm not sure of the application of the funds. Sending it to states is a mistake as they will be hijacked for other uses. I'm not sure of the procedure to hit foreign bank accounts but it stands to reason the money will come from some rich people. It's anti-productive and enforces the notion that this Administration isn't going to stop until radical changes are made.
Economic View
Once again there is mixed data on the economy as reflected by the Leading Economic Indicators report this morning. Only four of ten components were positive.
The Philly Fed came in slightly ahead of consensus and at 18.9, climbed month over month from 17.6. New orders dropped to a reading of 9.3 from 22.7, and shipments decreased to 13.6 from 19.7. The good news is that employment edged up to a reading of 8.4 from 7.4.
Market bias is still to the upside but needs a catalyst to get through current resistance points.
How to Spot a Winning Investment
By: Brian Sozzi, Research Analyst
This morning we sent out a Hotline profit alert (+12% since our recommendation) on Guess Inc. (GES). Yesterday evening the company had perhaps the most robust holiday quarters relative to other mall-based specialty apparel retailers. The product was on trend with current global preferences, the business is being very efficiently run (company now goes one global line), and there were margin opportunities in each category of product due to the steep contraction in demand that resulted during holiday 2008. As background, I launched coverage for our institutional service on Guess in 2005 with a Buy rating when the stock was hovering around $14.00 and change; currently the stock resides around $47.00. So to say the holiday quarter performance was a surprise would be false. But, let's say one didn't have such intimate exposure to covering the company. Let's say Guess popped on your Bloomberg terminal for stronger than sector average operating margins and cash flow generation, or as a company paying an attractive dividend. Obviously there are reasons these items would pass your selection screen...the trends in the business are quite favorable!
Take a glimpse of the tables I put together below of Guess' business segment performance dating back to 2008. I will provide a few hints (leaving some out of course) at what I see in the numbers, and you are more than welcome to send me an email ([email protected]) detailing your findings. If you can spot key fundamental trends in the tables below, you are well on your way to properly thinking about companies in terms of would be investments. I reason there at least 10 to 15 observations that can be gleaned from the tables, all of which shed light into an effective operation that is gaining share on a global scale.
Observations
* European segment revenue increasing faster than other segments.
* European segment operating margins the highest among the various lines of business.
* U.S. retail segment producing sales growth ahead of peer base.
* U.S. retail segment producing industry leading operating margin rates.
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/18/2010 2:13:17 PM Eastern Time
You can feel the angst in the air as the healthcare plan creeps closer to becoming law despite widespread public opposition and massive fear in the business community. It's all just so much baloney. Take the so-called jobs bill that President Obama signed today. It was presented to the public as an $18.0 billion bill but is really a $38.0 billion bill when you add in the $20.0 billion set aside for construction. That amount is going to be offset by taxes on foreign bank accounts. Well, I thought last year's $860.0 billion stimulus bill was a jobs and construction bill; it was certainly sold that way. Today's bill is just a harebrained scheme that has no chance of making a difference to a job market that has lost 8.4 million jobs since December 2007. And like all the plans from the White House designed to help the nation, this one comes with dumb and discriminatory strings attached.
Employers will be allowed to skip the 6.2% contribution to social security tax and could get a $1,000 bonus if a new hire stays on for more than a year. The catch for the tax break is that the new hire must have been unemployed at least 60 days or longer. Every one of these deals has some kind of stipulation that mitigates potential success and punishes some for being more fortunate than others. As it stands, the best estimate of job growth from this bill is 250,000. As for that $20.0 billion for construction I'm not sure of the application of the funds. Sending it to states is a mistake as they will be hijacked for other uses. I'm not sure of the procedure to hit foreign bank accounts but it stands to reason the money will come from some rich people. It's anti-productive and enforces the notion that this Administration isn't going to stop until radical changes are made.
Economic View
Once again there is mixed data on the economy as reflected by the Leading Economic Indicators report this morning. Only four of ten components were positive.
How to Spot a Winning Investment
By: Brian Sozzi, Research Analyst
This morning we sent out a Hotline profit alert (+12% since our recommendation) on Guess Inc. (GES). Yesterday evening the company had perhaps the most robust holiday quarters relative to other mall-based specialty apparel retailers. The product was on trend with current global preferences, the business is being very efficiently run (company now goes one global line), and there were margin opportunities in each category of product due to the steep contraction in demand that resulted during holiday 2008. As background, I launched coverage for our institutional service on Guess in 2005 with a Buy rating when the stock was hovering around $14.00 and change; currently the stock resides around $47.00. So to say the holiday quarter performance was a surprise would be false. But, let's say one didn't have such intimate exposure to covering the company. Let's say Guess popped on your Bloomberg terminal for stronger than sector average operating margins and cash flow generation, or as a company paying an attractive dividend. Obviously there are reasons these items would pass your selection screen...the trends in the business are quite favorable!
Take a glimpse of the tables I put together below of Guess' business segment performance dating back to 2008. I will provide a few hints (leaving some out of course) at what I see in the numbers, and you are more than welcome to send me an email ([email protected]) detailing your findings. If you can spot key fundamental trends in the tables below, you are well on your way to properly thinking about companies in terms of would be investments. I reason there at least 10 to 15 observations that can be gleaned from the tables, all of which shed light into an effective operation that is gaining share on a global scale.
Observations
* European segment revenue increasing faster than other segments.
* European segment operating margins the highest among the various lines of business.
* U.S. retail segment producing sales growth ahead of peer base.
* U.S. retail segment producing industry leading operating margin rates.