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CONFIDENCE OR LACK THEREOF WOBBLES MARKET
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

2/23/2010 1:53:08 PM Eastern Time


The headlines read that bank failures climbed 25% for the year last Friday, which is a little misleading. What's not misleading, however, is the fact that banks continue to be vulnerable as acknowledged by the so-called "Problem List" of banks released by the FDIC today. The surge in problem banks doesn't bode well for the overall economy. Small business lending picked up at small banks (with $1.0 billion or less in assets) but not enough to offset the abandonment of the large banks ($100.0 billion+ assets). Then there is the double-edged scrutiny that has accompanied all the talk of new financial regulation. But also let's not forget things are still tough and maybe getting tougher. All of a sudden consumer confidence takes a plunge, and home prices are down for the second month in a row on seasonally adjusted basis.

I will get into details on consumer confidence in the morning report and David Urani, our homebuilder sector analyst, reviews the Case Schiller home price report below.

As for the banks, on one hand the FDIC continues to lobby for small business lending, saying if its "prudent" after performing a comprehensive review of the borrower's the lender will "not be subject to criticism." Still, the situation at banks goes hand in hand with the situation of confidence on Main Street. According to David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff, bank lending in the United States is down $100.0 billion this year or an annualized rate of 16%. It's all about a lack of belief.

Case-Shiller Review
By: David Urani, Housing Sector Analyst, Wall Street Strategies

The Case-Shiller home price index decreased by 0.3% month to month in December, and by 3.1% year over year. The December results largely reflect the fact that the nationwide tax credit was set to expire at the end of November (before being extended), leading to some pricing power for consumers. Nevertheless, the housing market is still in very shaky condition to say the very least, and pricing is not particularly strong, even with the full effect of the tax credit. Similar to previous months, all regional indices showed month to month drops except for the harder hit regions such as Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles which are coming off of severely depressed levels. The biggest decliner was Chicago, with a 1.6% drop month to month, followed by Dallas with a 0.9% drop.

Perhaps the only good news from the report is that the year over year decline are getting smaller, although it is now cycling over the market crash of last year. Otherwise, the falling prices may only continue to hurt consumer confidence and put homeowners more underwater on their mortgages. In the months ahead, we are looking for some modest strengthening as the tax credit approaches its April deadline and consumers rush to buy homes. However, the market is likely to weaken again afterwards, assuming the credit is not extended again.

Color on Retail Sector Earnings
By: Brian Sozzi, Research Analyst

Soft consumer confidence data is overshadowing generally positive reports from retailers Macy's (M), Target (TGT), and Home Depot (HD). Comments on the conference calls have also been positive, with the collective group of companies realizing higher customer traffic and willingness by consumers to buy non-essential goods.

I have revised my piece on Home Depot on our website, www.wstreet.com. Also, please check back later for an overview of the results from Target.

Final Note

We are not panicking, but we closed out many positions today as cash is important and everyone should be positioned to take advantage if the wheels come off. Earnings reports were on balance pretty good, with impressive guidance from several companies including Home Depot, which lifted guidance on positive comps and pumped its dividend by 5%. On one hand, we could say the news today is mixed, but that wouldn't be the truth. The news was a sobering reminder that now isn't the time to play games with the recovery, not the time to play politics, and not the time to take victory laps.

 

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BEN BERNANKE TALKS UP THE MARKET
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

2/24/2010 1:55:07 PM Eastern Time


The market has been in a tug-o-war all session long. The carryover from yesterday's (lack thereof) confidence numbers were mitigated by solid earnings reports, but the new homes data knocked the wind off the rally even though it means lower rates for a while. Of course, the notion of lower rates is a double-edge sword that Ben Bernanke has to deal with today. How to exude confidence even while suggesting rates will have to remain low for a long time. The market likes the news, but it's bittersweet to say the very least. At some point we want the Fed to hike rates because the economy is ready to run without training wheels and booster rockets. But, for now, even the training wheels are flat and the booster rockets are running on "empty."

The news out of housing over the last 24 hours is shocking. In fact, economic data in general has gotten sloppy, and the signs add fuel to worry about a double-dip in the economy. It's early to make the determination on this and it is true that recoveries are choppy, but the market reflects the cautious nature of the recovery.

Color on Housing
By: David Urani, Research Analyst

There has been much housing news so far this week, and overall we'd have to say that it has all been disappointing. The Case-Shiller Index report yesterday showed that prices in December were flat to slightly down month to month. It was a sign that even though the nationwide tax credit for new homebuyers was extended and expanded, the demand for housing hit a snag. Home prices were down in most regions across the country, except surprisingly in the hardest hit regions, which has been a trend for the past few months. Those regions in particular are likely benefitting from bargain buying.

However, the latest two data points today show that housing demand has certainly stalled. First, mortgage applications last week declined 8.5% week to week, representing the third week in a row of decreases. The worst part of the release, however, was purchase applications which fell by 3.6% and hit its lowest level since 1997.

This scary piece of information came along with today's new home sales report which showed an 11% decrease month to month in January and hit a new record low of 309,000 sales annually. It was surprisingly bad, especially considering the consensus (and ourselves included) was looking for a modest increase as the tax credit extension came back into effect. The new home sales report also showed more falling prices and a bump higher in supply.

Now that we've gotten the horrendous sales data out of the way, it's time to turn to what all could have gone askew in these releases. The purchase applications is concerning, but we should note that cancellation rates on home sales have been improving, indicating that although there might have been fewer inquiries for new homes, more of them are being converted to sales. Turning to the new home sales data, it is certainly worrisome, but it should be noted off the bat that the report has a 14% margin of error. The number could easily be revised higher next month, although it will still surely still show a decline. Secondly, seasonal adjustments are very hard to get a finger on. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis new home sales decreased by 3,000 month to month, which is not as much of an end-of-the world figure as the headline result may suggest.

In the end, it's hard to see any of this data in a positive light. One factor I am considering is the idea that perhaps the initial November tax credit deadline caused a pull-forward of a large amount of home demand. In essence, it's possible that most of the people who were planning on buying a new home did so before the first tax credit deadline, and the extension may only be running on fumes. Still though, we have to wonder what will happen when the deadline expires again in April. Many believe there will be a significant drop-off in sales but at this point, considering the consistent drop in demand that began in November, I am inclined to think that maybe we have already squeezed out most of the extra demand with the initial tax credit. Another extension may not be much of a help unless we make it bigger and better, but that would just be reckless.

Therefore, we suspect that housing demand will stay subdued for several months (in the low-to-mid 300,000 range), with the exception of a bump higher in April as buyers finalize sales before the last deadline (assuming it's not extended again). In order for sales to truly make a large-scale comeback, we are going to need employment to return, and so far it appears we are still a ways off from that happening. Meanwhile, there are still many hurdles in the way in terms of foreclosures and pricing, including the Obama mortgage modification plan that may simply be delaying a large amount of foreclosures that are going to enter the pipeline in the coming months. Therefore, prices are likely to fluctuate, but be somewhat flat over the next several months as sales and foreclosures mostly balance each other out on the supply side.

More on Toyota
By: David Silver, Research Analyst

Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood is back in front of Congress for the second straight day, and he put on a better performance yesterday than he was this morning. Mr. LaHood tried to deflect some of the questions with humor; I respect the move as many of the questions have been eerily similar. Also, why is there no one in the chamber? There is such outrage over this problem with Toyota (TM), and yet there are only five congressmen (or women) in their chairs. Later today, when Mr. Toyoda is testifying, I can guarantee that most of those seats will be filled because these congressmen will need their sound bites. After seeing yesterday's testimonies, Ms. Smith's story tore at the heart strings and it really is amazing she was able to sit there and tell her story. To anyone that has lost control of their car momentarily on a sheet of ice or snow, she lost control of her car going about 80 mph and didn't have control of it for approximately 5-6 minutes. She tried everything (standing on the brakes, emergency brakes, turning the engine off), but nothing worked. It was a difficult story to listen to, and it will be interesting to see how many representatives refer to that story later today.

Mr. LaHood at his last testimony (about a month ago) said that Toyota's weren't safe to drive; he later recanted that statement saying that people misunderstood what he was trying to say. He reiterated that statement this morning saying that Toyota owners needed to get their vehicles in to be fixed as soon as possible. Toyota is fixing about 50,000 vehicles per day, and many dealerships are staying open 24 hours a day to try to help with the influx of cars. Oddly, there hasn't been the backlash against Toyota that many had feared. Yes, there are some outspoken people, but they probably wouldn't buy Toyotas anyway. I have spoken to a few Toyota dealerships around the New York City, New Jersey, and Philadelphia areas and most are seeing people that still love their cars. They are actually becoming even bigger fans of Toyota because of the steps the local dealerships are taking.

Akio Toyoda, President of Toyota (and grandson of the founder), will be a punching bag for Congress, but it will be up to him to put on a solid performance if Toyota is to have any hopes of rebounding quickly. Many think that all of Japan's export economy rests on Mr. Toyoda's shoulders this afternoon. If he is shown to be an inept leader, than there are fears that the negative cloud could spread to all of Japan's exports, ranging from Honda to Sony. I expect Mr. Toyoda to hold his own during the testimony, and while he may leave with a black eye, he (and Toyota) will still be standing tall.

 

[superbaffone]

che scherzetto hanno fatto oggi

 

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BEHIND THE ECONOMIC NUMBERS
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

2/25/2010 2:01:13 PM Eastern Time


Suffice it to say the raft of economic data received in recent weeks has left much to be desired. Seemingly long gone are those days when economic data was beating expectations following the sharp downturn in global activity post the Lehman Brothers fallout. 4Q GDP growth of close to 6% is but a distant memory, replaced by the reality that the recovery from economic Armageddon will have its fits and starts. Fresh reads on new home sales, home prices, durable goods, jobless claims have joined forces with below consensus data sets overseas, such as Germany, and doubts as to whether the PIIGS will navigate through a precarious debt situation. Sprinkle in the Chinese attempting to head off a potential property bubble, and well, the picture for global growth in the second half of the year becomes cloudy.

I laid eyes on a very interesting article at 3 am this morning, one disseminated by USA Today that provided on the ground perspective of what's happening in the U.S. economy. The personal accounts speak volumes as to how the foundation of the economy was uprooted in 2009, and why a recovery to sustainable trend growth will be a long winding path. In fact, instead of the Administration trying to force through healthcare reform greater attention should be assigned to job creation by the teaching of new skill sets. How are out-of-work individuals able to return to school and learn a new trade, thereby developing a platform to reignite long-term growth, if deficit spending may just drive taxes and inflation higher? How can we compete on an ever increasingly global stage when former operators of machines are now polishing floors at a local school, since corporations must move operations to lower cost overseas countries (such as China and India). Take a read of the following accounts:

Christopher
* Former trade: installing metal roofs
* Former annual salary: $80,000
* Current trade: being unemployed
* Current compensation: $385 a week of unemployment benefits
* Changes to living habits: much lower food bill, hardly leaves the house
David
* Former trade: ductwork installer
* Former hourly wage rate: $32.00
* Current trade: truck driver
* Current hourly wage: $21.00
* Changes to living habits: away from home, varying schedule
Carl
* Former trade: cabinet installer
* Current trade: being an unemployed airplane mechanic student

Drinking in the News
By: David Silver, Research Analyst

Today, the Coca-Cola Company (KO) announced that it is closing in on a deal to acquire the North American operations of its largest bottler, Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE). This type of move may sound familiar, as main rival PepsiCo (PEP) is in the midst of completing a takeover of two of its largest bottlers, Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG) and PepsiAmericas (PAS). Under the terms of the cashless deal, Coke would give up its 34% stake in Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc., worth approximately $3.4 billion, and assume $8.88 billion in debt. Coca-Cola will also sell the Norwegian and Swedish operations to Coca-Cola Enterprises for $822.0 million. The deal wouldn't be a complete takeover of CCE, as some of Coke's bottlers in Europe would be transferred over to CCE in a swap type transaction. The Coca-Cola Company has acquired troubled bottlers around the world, and after improving operations and effectively turning operations around, it then sells those operations to its vast network of global bottlers.

It is an interesting shift in policy for the Coca-Cola Company, which as of a few months ago at its analyst meeting in Atlanta had specifically voiced opposition to acquiring any of its bottlers. CEO Muhtar Kent had been quite convincing in his support for the bottlers' CEOs that were in attendance. However, this morning, he said "We have a strong and unrelenting belief in our unique and thriving global bottling system. Our new North American structure will create an unparalleled combination of businesses,"

Refer to our website, www.wstreet.com for the remainder of the piece.

Jobs Will Disappoint Next Week
By: Carlos Guillen, Research Analyst

So far this month, the signs for the unemployment rate are not looking very good. This morning's initial claims result for the week ending February 20 totaled 496,000, which increased from the 474,000 revised number reported for the prior week and landed above the Street's estimate of 460,000. While the overall trend in initial claims were favorable for most of 2009, since mid November it appears that the jobs situation is rather stagnant, oscillating around the 450,000 mark. And if we look at the trailing four-week average, which tends to smooth out some of the data noise, we can observe that the trend has been rather negative. Although the increase is not sharp, the direction is certainly not encouraging at all.

​

While the consumer had been feeling more optimistic about the jobs situation just about last month, now this sentiment is changing. In fact, just two days ago the Conference Board announced that its consumer confidence index ticked lower to 46.0 in February from 56.5 in January, well under the Street's expectation of 55.0. Consumers are certainly becoming more concerned with the current business conditions, job market, and their stagnant incomes. And while the unemployment rate in a January did tick lower to 9.7% from 10%, the Street is now expecting this rate to increase to 9.8% for February.

We believe the current initial claims level is still extremely high. In our opinion, an initial claims level of less than 400,000 would need to be reached in order to help bring the unemployment rate lower. At the current rate, given the initial claims figures we've been witnessing, we believe the unemployment rate is likely to disappoint when it is revealed next week.

Did Goldman Help Greece Cheat?
By: David Urani, Research Analyst

Those credit default swaps are at it again. First they were blamed for the housing and financial collapses, and now they are being blamed for concealing Greece's debt load. Both the Federal Reserve and the SEC are now looking into Goldman Sachs and other banks' dealings with Greece, which they say allowed the country to falsely state the amount of debt it was carrying for nine years. On top of that, several banks, including Goldman, are alleged to have pooled these assets into an index that allowed traders to bet on Greece's debt problems; the downside of that is that as more investors buy in, the higher Greece's debt costs go, making it harder to pay its debts back.

German Chancellor Merkel called these derivative products "scandalous," and it is one of the reasons that Greece is now struggling to get some kind of aid from the rest of the EU. Not only does it hurt Greece's chance of getting a proper bailout, but it's another round of bad PR for the U.S.A. and our questionable banking system.

Speaking of concealing debt, Freddie Mac posted a $6.47 billion quarterly loss yesterday (that's $21.6 billion for the year). It will be forced to tap another $6.47 billion Freddie from its unlimited Federal lifeline. Good thing Freddie is still considered neither private nor public, making that $6.47 billion Federal expense "off budget".

 

[Grecale]

che scherzetto hanno fatto oggi

già , ciao Ale

 

[paologorgo]

già , ciao Ale

e cioè, per noi comuni mortali?!? (è una scusa per salutarvi...)

 

[Grecale]

e cioè, per noi comuni mortali?!? (è una scusa per salutarvi...)

Sono in funzione le macchinette di GS & co. solo loro sanno essere così precisi

Un caro saluto

 

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notare che ordini erano, ed erano tutti asteriscati....

 

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CONSUMER PROTECTION AND FINANCIAL REGULATORY REFORM (FINAL EDITION)
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

3/2/2010 9:38:19 AM Eastern Time

One of the interesting things going on with the Greek story is the brewing battle between global governments and financial players using credit default swaps. Yesterday I read where hedge funds and investment banks were using CDS to bet on a Greek default. Of course, if you aren't long Greek debt then the reality is that anyone buying CDS either hopes there is more pain or a complete default. Then there is the issue that enough action in the CDS arena causes a self- fulfilling aspect that wrecked havoc in the 2008 meltdown. I don't think we can ever prove without a shadow of a doubt that Wall Street wanted the nation to collapse. Certainly, if that was their goal it was dumb because they took such a shellacking to the point that many had to be bailed out. Still, they are the easy target because they are not altruistic and did take chances that bordered on suicide.

Around the world, anti-bank sentiment lifted left-leaning governments and triggered sweeping election victories for the democrats. The promise of curtailing these big, nefarious banks hasn't been met, and stands out among other failures of western governments. But the thing is that despite the bloodlust in 2008 and 2009, there is a greater urgency to create an atmosphere that fosters job creation. In the EU, the focus is on stopping what looks likes teetering dominos on the cusp of an ugly tumble. People still want the banks to pay, but will that change their employment status? Would revenge on the banks increase the value of homes? Anger is giving way to desperation and there isn't time to point fingers right now. Unfortunately, the only thing politicians seem to know how to do is point fingers, so the focus is on all the wrong things at the wrong time.

Does Financial Regulation Need More Bullets?

Yesterday, Chris Dodd wrote an editorial on Politico that began with this line:

"The financial crisis that has shaken the American economy did not happen by accident."

That sounds open and shut to me; the U.S. economy was crushed on purpose. The inference is that Wall Street deliberately killed the goose that laid the golden egg. Then, the soon to be retired senator went on to say:

"It was caused by outrageous greed and recklessness on the part of some in the financial sector. And it was enabled by the failure of our outdated regulatory system to stop those abuses."


The reality is that there are so many rules and so many regulators the system wasn't outdated. As it turns out, the guys in charge had more in common with Barney Fife than Elliott Ness.
But admitting that would make the government more culpable and mitigate their argument that the guys on Wall Street were so smart they played the system. The fact is that regulators had the power but didn't implement it properly. Unlike Barney Fife, these guys had bullets in their guns, and some even had bazookas, but they didn't know what the heck they were doing. More power + incompetence = disaster. Be that as it may, there are areas like credit card abuses that need to be re-tooled. I even think that the CDS market needs to be more transparent.

The thing is that all of this stuff could be done within the existing frame of regulators. I don't know if that's going to happen, however. Everyone has an opinion on this stuff, by the way.

* Chris Dodd wants a watchdog to operate under the Treasury Department with rule-writing abilities.
* President Obama wants an independent Consumer Financial Protection Agency to regulate credit cards, mortgages, and other matters.
* Yesterday, Senator Shelby of Alabama proposed a watchdog under the FDIC with some rule-writing power. The director would be appointed by the White House and confirmed by the Senate.

I happen to think that Shelia Bair is doing a wonderful job handling the avalanche of bank failures since last year, but the FDIC doesn't have any money and can't afford to fund this new watchdog entity.

I think that something will be cobbled together, and it will probably have bi-partisan support. But the Volker Rule looms large, and I'm not sure there will be any compromise. There is no doubt that the White House wants to crush Goldman Sachs (GS) despite the back door bailout via AIG. In the meantime, leaders in Europe are prepared to go to war with Goldman Sachs or any purchasers of CDS on Greek debt. "If the Greeks hold onto the strict parameters and the markets continue to speculate against Greece, we will not let them just March through." This statement was made by the head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers. Also, Luxemburg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker told a newspaper "we have the torture equipment in the cellar, and we will show them if needed" when commenting on how the EU would fight back against buyers of CDS on Greek debt.

I think that he also went on to say he would get a couple of hard, pipe hitting brutes, who'll go to work with a pair of pliers and a blowtorch. In other words, if Goldman Sachs and others want to force Greece toward bankruptcy then the EU will get medieval. The CDS market is out of control; it's nuts that I can in essence buy insurance on my neighbor's home. They aren't nice guys but we must be careful not to let the unrelenting stoking of public scorn allow for the creation of an anti-capitalism agency that limits profits and finds a new way to fulfill the key vestiges of the Community Reinvestment Act, which holds as much blame for the current circumstances our nation is in at the moment. After all, the financial crisis that has shaken the American economy did not happen by accident.

By the way, Goldman Sachs made $100.0 million a day 131 times last year through trading. Wow...I'd fight tooth and nail to keep that going, too. But I would chill out on CDS beyond basic hedging.

By the way, if a healthcare plan is going to be rammed down out throats then at the very least I think congressmen and senators must be forced to take the same plan. I even believe the President should show solidarity with Americans and also accept what he is demanding the masses accept. There is a resolution proposed by Rep John Fleming of Louisiana that aims to get our brave politicians to eat their own cooking. So far 2 million Americans have replied to the call to ask their reps to do the right thing.

http://fleming.house.gov/index.cfm?sectionid=55


http://fleming.house.gov/images/FLEMING%20HEALTH%20CARE%20RESOLUTION.pdf


The Market

I love the action in the market, but it's still early in the week. Nonetheless, I must stress to everyone that the economy can suck and the market can move higher. See 2009. I must stress that while the greatest risk to our long-term prosperity are attempts to change our nation from one of pulling its bootstraps to one that sits around and waits for the government to take care of basic needs in life, I think that threat is being beaten back. Saying these things doesn't suggest a double-dip in the economy wouldn't hit stocks hard. It probably would, but I think it would be short-lived, too. As for fighting back big government this isn't going to be easy as it is the ultimate goal and will be tried over and over again.

In the meantime, don't ignore the action in the market. Stocks act like a bull in a chute ready to bolt out of the gate. My parameters are the same:

* 10,450 key resistance on the DJIA, and then 10,750 is the true breakout point.

There was some good acquisition news yesterday and that helped, although it's interesting that foreign companies see the urgency to buy American companies and are offering attractive premiums. It's not like U.S. companies don't have the cash, or even pretty good share prices, to make a move. According to Biryini & Associates, S&P 500 companies are sitting on $3.2 trillion in cash! Take out financial companies and the tally is $1.1 trillion, an all-time record, and 11% of total assets (the highest percent in 60-years, typically cash is 8% of total assets). The money is there. The good news is that we are seeing bigger share buybacks. For the week that ended February 26, companies announced $13.23 billion in share buybacks, up from $1.07 billion in the year earlier period that ended February 27, 2009.

After the bell, Qualcomm (QCOM) hiked its dividend by 11.8% to $0.19 P/S and announced a new $3.0 billion share buyback. This is a huge vote of confidence.

 

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WHIP IT GOOD
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

3/2/2010 1:45:36 PM Eastern Time


The market is marking time, but the bias is still to the upside. The lack of economic data has slowed the action but yesterday's momentum carried over into today. Most eyes are on vehicle sales and the changing of the guard. Ford sold more cars last month than General Motors for the first time since 1998. But the folks at General Motors aren't crying in their beer, on the contrary our auto analyst thinks the company was the big winner today. David Silver will go into more details below. I will say that GM is positioned to take advantage of a hostile environment for Toyota (TM) and maybe other foreign automakers, too. There is a disingenuous aspect to all of it from the grilling of Toyota executives to the lack of outrage at today's announcement of 1.3 million GM cars recalled. Today is all about the whips...the kind you drive and the kind used to flog the competition.

Interestingly, Ford (F) shares are spinning their wheels while Toyota is moving higher.

The action in crude oil is compelling. I don't think that it's up over news or scuttlebutt involving Iran, but this move looks determined. Keep in mind if conventional wisdom becomes so sanguine then it stands to reason that crude oil will move higher, too. Let's keep an eye on this.

February Auto Sales Begin With a Flurry
By: David Silver, Research Analyst

So far General Motors and Ford have reported auto sales for February and in my mind, the biggest winner has been General Motors. It announced this morning a 1.3 million vehicle recall but that shouldn't spoil the party for a great month. The company reported that sales during the month improved 11.5% year over year, but that includes Pontiac, Hummer, Saturn, and Saab, which in total sold only 3,102 units compared to 22,303 units sold in February of 2009. Only looking at the core four brands of Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick, and GMC, sales improved 32.2% year over year as the concentrated marketing spend as well as new releases are beginning to pay dividends for the company.

Ford, on the other hand, had another great month, and including Volvo, sales actually surpassed that of General Motors for the first time 1998. Stripping out Volvo sales (Ford sold Volvo to China's Zhejiang Geely Holding Group and the deal is expected to close in the second quarter), sales were just below that of GM's (core 4). Ford reported that its market share gained three percentage points compared to last year and achieved a 17% share of the U.S. market, no doubt a good portion of that coming from Toyota.

Sales from GM came in just below our expectations, while Ford blew away what we had forecasted for the month. We had expected the snowstorms that impacted much of the United States to have a more dramatic impact on sales. The numbers are beginning to trickle in, and there is always going to be an asterisk next to this month's results as a result of the blizzards, "snow'icanes", and Toyota recalls. Toyota announced its marketing and incentive blitz this morning for the month of March; we had expected the incentives to wait a few months to let the negative news die down. However, CEO Akio Toyoda has been around the world and after a black eye from Congress, he got a much warmer reception in China, where he again apologized for the massive recalls as well as the problems that his vehicles have caused.

Deeper Dive into the Retail Minutiae
By: Brian Sozzi, Research Analyst

This Thursday, the retail sector will announce its February sales results. You are likely to see comparable store sales misses relative to consensus estimates, and perhaps earnings warnings, by those companies overly concentrated on the East Coast. I have supplied some minutiae to ponder in advance of the results.

Some things I am seeing in the estimates:

* Of the 17 companies I gathered data for, 29% have had their comparable store sales estimates for the month lowered. The remaining companies have had upward revisions or were maintained.
* There were fairly sizable comparable store sales estimate raises for Limited (LTD) and TJ Maxx (TJX). I believe these raises have merit as Limited is benefiting from a stronger internal product cycle and TJ Maxx has clear momentum in its business to start the new reporting year.
* I think that Kohl's (KSS) and Zumiez (ZUMZ) could disappoint on sales. For Kohl's, it had strong exposure to the storms on the East Coast and Midwest and high consensus expectations. For Zumiez, its estimates have gone unchanged for the month, despite the store selling beach wares in this type of inclement weather. The West Coast is important to them, however, but I still don't sense numbers there will be robust.