Obbligazioni bancarie MONITOR Principali banche mondiali

[paologorgo]

CreditSights has reissued its forward stress tests with an eye towards which banks may be getting a fresh round of capital following the announcement Tuesday of a revised bank bailout plan by US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

We believe that based on our conservative loss stress test, Citigroup (NYSE: C), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) may require additional capital assistance based on our cumulative loss estimates and capital thresholds. Similarly, in our severe loss scenario, all big banks/brokers - Citi, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), and Morgan Stanley NYSE: MS) - may require capital assistance. We note that our capital assistance projections are driven by our forecast for future credit losses, pre-provision internal capital generation, and a targeted TCE ratio of 4.0%, and a Tier 1 ratio of 8.0%.
​

CreditSights has a generally positive assessment of the revised bailout program:

The numerical specifics and extent of programs were kept general and not specific enough in the speech … Still, overall intent seems progressive as it seems the full resources of the US government are being targeted in a more comprehensive and focused fashion on financial stability.
​

For details of CreditSights’ stress tests and analysis of the program see: Banks: Geithner’s War Plan to KickStart Banking.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/119986-all-big-u-s-banks-may-need-more-aid-in-severe-scenario

 

[Broker88]

Barclays: sigla patteggiamento con Bear Stearns


LONDRA (MF-DJ)--Barclays avrebbe raggiunto un patteggiamento con Bear Stearns in merito al crack di due anni fa dell'hedge fund gestito dalla banca americana che potrebbe aver causato perdite fino a 950 milioni di dollari.
Lo si legge sul Financial Times. Il crack di due anni fa dell'hedge fund americano anticipo' la crisi del credito legata ai mutui subprime esplosa di li' a poco. Barclays era l'unico investitore di Bear Stearns.

 

[METHOS]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/multimedia/tv/business/18343.html

 

[paologorgo]

OT - questo è un visionario (e tira l'acqua al suo mulino, le aziende in cui investe il suo fondo di VC...), ma alcune sue provocazioni, soprattutto nel mondo di Internet, si sono rivelate interessanti, negli anni...

Why Do We Need Banks at All?

 

[yellow]

12.02.09 15:34 - Fortis: analisti, a rischio i possessori di bond ibridi
LONDRA (MF-DJ)--Dopo la bocciatura del piano di vendita degli asset di Fortis da parte degli azionisti si fa incerto il futuro dei bond ibridi della banca belga-olandese.
Mentre gli obbligazionisti senior dovrebbero essere protetti dalle garanzie del Governo su questo tipo di strumenti finanziari, gli analisti spiegano che i possessori di bond ibridi potrebbero restare allo scoperto. Si tratta di obbligazioni emesse da Fortis Hybrid Financing, divisione controllata direttamente da Fortis, riguardo le quali gli esperti si dicono molto preoccupati. In particolare, Ing ha avvisato i propri clienti che si tratta di strumenti estremamente a rischio, per i quali il sostegno del Governo non e' garantito

 

[paologorgo]

When the Banks Are the Robbers


By Simon Johnson
The modern bank robber calmly hands a note to the teller, asking for money and making a moderately specific scary threat. The robber, of course, expects the teller to hand over unmarked bills without a fuss.
This morning’s “research” note from a major international bank is entitled, “Falling Short: The government needs to buy toxic assets,” and the heart of their one page argument is, with the emphasis as in the original,

One main stumbling block to the purchasing of troubled assets has been pricing, specifically how does the government price a diverse set of assets in a way that does not put the taxpayer on the hook. However, this should not be the standard by which we judge the efficacy of the plan, because a more prolonged deterioration in the economy will result in a higher terminal unemployment rate and a greater deterioration of the tax base. As such, the decline in tax revenues will crimp many of the essential services provided by the government. Ultimately, the taxpayer will pay one way or another, either through greatly diminished job prospects and/or significantly higher taxes down the line to pay for the massive debt issuance required to fund current and prospective fiscal spending initiatives. We think the government should do the following: estimate the highest price it can pay for the various toxic assets residing on financial institution balance sheets which would still return the principal to taxpayers.
​

Tell me if you think I am overreacting - it has been a difficult week - but I interpret this as saying: “Give us as much money as you can, or else.” And the “or else” appears to be unemployment up around 20% and debt / GDP in the red-for-danger zone.
Can bankers really trump the American government in this fashion? It’s painful to read, but probably helpful that the oligarchs put their cards (and notes) on the table so brazenly. This is, after all, a critical fight to save American democracy, and it’s good to know what we are up against.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/120245-when-the-banks-are-the-robbers

 

[ilfolignate]

Unicredit: ok del cda a riassetto

(ANSA) - MILANO, 12 FEB - Via libera dal Cda di Unicredit al riassetto organizzativo del gruppo. Lo riferiscono fonti vicine alla banca. Queste sottolineano che l'operazione consiste nell'accorpamento della divisione markets and investment banking (Mib) con la divisione corporate. Alla guida ci sara' il vice ad Sergio Ermotti. L'operazione semplifica la struttura organizzativa e permette di realizzare in modo piu' efficiente le sinergie tra le due divisione accorpate.

 

[yellow]

13.02.09 15:13 - MARKET TALK: banche britanniche crollano su annuncio Lloyds
LONDRA (MF-DJ)--L'intero settore bancario britannico sta crollando assieme al titolo Lloyds,
alla luce delle previsioni fornite dalla banca sulla performance della neo-acquisita Hbos.

Lloyds reagisce alla notizia crollando del 32% a 62 pence, Royal Bank of Scotland scende del 18% a 20 pence e Barclays cede il 14% a 91 pence.

Secondo gli analisti, Lloyds ha dimostrato oggi che l'acquisto di Hbos e' stato un errore e che potrebbe mettere a rischio l'indipendenza della banca.

 

[stockuccio]

non so se va bene qui ... http://www.safehaven.com/article-12582.htm
Reggie Middleton non è troppo ottimista su Wells Fargo ....

 

[yellow]

Si intravede l'enorme/spropositata mole del debito delle 4 maggiori Banche statunitensi, il Nobel Krugman indirettamente è riuscito a quantificarlo all'incirca.

Interessante anche la view ipotetica su come potrebbe evolversi
( la privatizzazione potrebbe non più essere un tabù, e per gli azionisti potrebbe anche azzerarsi il capitale ? )

Paul Krugman
February 14, 2009, 4:09 pm
Stressed for success

Aha — the Times’s dealbook blog supplies exactly the numbers
I was looking for.

It cites a CreditSights report on the potential losses of major banks — which gives us a guide to the amount of capital the federal government needs to put in to make these banks viable.


Focus just on the big four money center banks:
Citi,
B of A,
Wells Fargo,
JPMorgan.

According to this estimate, they need around $450 billion.

Meanwhile, their combined market cap is only about $200 billion — and part if not all of that market cap surely represents the “Geithner put,”
the hope that stockholders will in effect get a handout from the feds.

Given these numbers, it’s extremely hard to rescue these banks without either (a) giving a HUGE handout
to current stockholders or (b) effectively taking ownership on the part of we, the people.

Of these, (a) would be politically unacceptable as well as bad policy — but the Obama administration isn’t ready to go for (b), because it’s not in our “culture”.

Hence the perplexity of policy.

Our best hope right now is that the “stress test” will make (b) inevitable — that Treasury will declare itself shocked,
shocked to find that the banks are in such bad financial shape,
leaving government receivership unavoidable.