Obbligazioni bancarie MONITOR Principali banche mondiali

[Imark]

Anche i banchieri tedeschi piangono... Altro deleverage in vista per Deutsche Bank nel 2009, che afferma di aver sostanzialmente ridotto la propria esposizione al segmento della leveraged finance (dovrebbe trattarsi dei leveraged loans alle società HY e della finanza strutturata del settore: titoli delle cartolarizzazioni dei relativi crediti), del real estate commerciale (che si era ritenuto più difensivo del residenziale nella prima fase della crisi, ma prenderà scoppole nei prossimi trimestri) e del trading su asset sui quali si è esposti a leva.

Deutsche Bank reports euro4.8 billion 4Q loss

Deutsche Bank says it lost euro4.8 billion in 4th quarter as economic downturn intensified

• <LI class=byline>David Rising, Associated Press Writer
• Wednesday January 14, 2009, 7:20 am EST

BERLIN (AP) -- Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's biggest bank, said Wednesday it lost an estimated euro4.8 billion ($6.4 billion) in the fourth quarter last year as the global economic downturn weighed heavily on its bottom line.

Deutsche Bank said the loss after taxes, based on preliminary figures, will likely lead to a full-year loss for 2008 of about euro 3.9 billion.

"We are very disappointed at this fourth quarter result, which leads to a loss for the year," Chief Executive Josef Ackermann said in a statement.
The official report on fourth-quarter and full-year 2008 earnings is due for release Feb. 5.

"The exceptionally difficult market environment of the quarter exposed some weaknesses in our platform, and we have determined a number of measures to address these weaknesses," he added. "Implementation of these measures is already under way."

The bank said the loss "reflects exposure reduction and other de-risking measures," among other factors.

The bank had reported a profit of euro953 million for the final quarter of 2007 and a profit of euro6.5 billion for the full year 2007.

The news comes on the heels of an announcement last week that the German government was taking a 25 percent stake in Germany's second-largest bank, Commerzbank AG, in a deal that gave Commerzbank another euro10 billion in capital from the government's financial sector rescue fund.

At the time, Commerzbank CEO Martin Blessing said the funds would "enable us to fulfill our responsibility to offer loans" amid what he called an "economically stormy environment."

Deutsche Bank so far has not made use of the rescue fund, which has a total value of up to euro500 billion.

The bank said some of the "corrective adjustments" decided upon by the management board were already implemented in the fourth quarter, while more would follow in 2009.

"Our capital strength, which was successfully maintained, allowed us to withstand these extremely difficult market conditions and to take necessary steps to de-risk our platform," Ackermann said.

"We have substantially reduced our exposures in leveraged finance, commercial real estate and other key credit market exposures, and expect no further material negative impact from these areas."

In addition, Ackermann said, the bank has scaled back or exited trading strategies most affected by market turbulence.

"We have significantly reduced trading assets, and thus reduced balance sheet leverage," he said.

 

[paologorgo]

solita fonte, solito "conflitto di interessi"...

Seeking Alpha:

Wednesday, January 14 2009

• Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. Citigroup (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) confirmed they're merging their wealth management units into Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. Morgan will pay $2.7B for a 51% stake with the option of taking full control after five years. Citi will book a pre-tax gain of $9.5B, and an after-tax gain of $5.8B. The joint venture will employ 20,390 brokers in over 1,000 firms, surpassing the 16,000-strong 'thundering herd' of brokers that Bank of America (BAC) acquired in Merrill Lynch. However, some question the timing of the deal, wondering if creating the largest group of financial advisers is prudent when many investors and brokers are shying away from Wall Street giants and analysts expect a resurgence of 'boutique' brokerage firms.
• Citi keeps shrinking. Citigroup's (C) deal with Morgan Stanley (MS) is just one part of its radical restructuring operation. Abandoning the much-touted 'financial supermarket,' sources say Citi is preparing to break the mega-bank into investment and commercial units, essentially dismantling the 1998 merger between Citicorp and Travelers that created Citigroup. It will jettison several business units and scale down its proprietary trading, shrinking itself by about a third and focusing on large corporations and wealthy individuals instead of less-affluent customers. Sources say the changes will be unveiled when Citi released Q4 earnings next week. Citigroup declined to comment.
• Bernanke backs new efforts for toxic assets. In a speech at the London School of Economics yesterday, the Fed's Bernanke threw his support behind a big U.S. stimulus plan, saying "a substantial fiscal package... could provide a significant boost to economic activity." However, he also said that Obama's plan is 'unlikely' to revive growth on its own without 'a comprehensive plan to stabilize the financial system and restore normal flows of credit.' To that end, he raised three options for Obama's Treasury in the event that it actually decides to address troubled assets with TARP money: 1) public purchases of troubled assets, as previously proposed by Paulson, 2) government provision of asset guarantees in return for warrants, or 3) creating and capitalizing 'bad banks' that would purchase assets from financial institutions in exchange for cash and equity in them. (Read the full text of Bernanke's speech)
• HSBC at risk. Shares of HSBC (HBC) fell 7.3% in London after analysts at Morgan Stanley said Europe's largest bank may be forced to raise up to $30B and cut its dividend in half. Unlike most rivals, HSBC has not had to raise capital during the financial crisis, but the analysts warned its capital position has eroded: "Historically, HSBC has carried about 120 basis points of surplus capital at the group level - this has now all but gone at a time when we think it better for the buffer to have increased," they said, adding it now has "one of the weaker capital ratios in Europe and the second weakest in Asia."

 

[Broker88]

Bank of America Corp. potrebbe riportare un'importante perdita nel quarto trimestre a causa dell'andamento poco positivo nelle attività di trading e delle svalutazioni. Questa analisi è firmata da un'analista veterano del settore bancario presso la casa di investimento, Ladenburg Thalmann & Co, Richard Bove. "L'azione sta perdendo terreno in Borsa sia a causa dello stress sugli utili... sia a causa dei timori che la banca possa continuare a riportare perdite. Entrambe queste assunzioni hanno senso", spiega l'esperto della Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. nella nota. Bank of America molto probabilmente riporterà una perdita di 45 centesimi per azione nel quarto trimestre, ha specificato Bove. Questo mese anche gli analisti di Citigroup e J.P. Morgan Securities hanno preventivato un trimestre in perdita per Bank of America. In particolare Keith Horowitz di Citigroup ha calcolato che la banca possa riportare una perdita pari a 3,6 miliardi di dollari.

 

[yellow]

Anche i banchieri tedeschi piangono... Altro deleverage in vista per Deutsche Bank nel 2009, che afferma di aver sostanzialmente ridotto la propria esposizione al segmento della leveraged finance (dovrebbe trattarsi dei leveraged loans alle società HY e della finanza strutturata del settore: titoli delle cartolarizzazioni dei relativi crediti), del real estate commerciale (che si era ritenuto più difensivo del residenziale nella prima fase della crisi, ma prenderà scoppole nei prossimi trimestri) e del trading su asset sui quali si è esposti a leva.

Deutsche Bank reports euro4.8 billion 4Q loss

Deutsche Bank says it lost euro4.8 billion in 4th quarter as economic downturn intensified

• <LI class=byline>David Rising, Associated Press Writer
• Wednesday January 14, 2009, 7:20 am EST

BERLIN (AP) -- Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's biggest bank, said Wednesday it lost an estimated euro4.8 billion ($6.4 billion) in the fourth quarter last year as the global economic downturn weighed heavily on its bottom line.

Deutsche Bank said the loss after taxes, based on preliminary figures, will likely lead to a full-year loss for 2008 of about euro 3.9 billion.

"We are very disappointed at this fourth quarter result, which leads to a loss for the year," Chief Executive Josef Ackermann said in a statement.
The official report on fourth-quarter and full-year 2008 earnings is due for release Feb. 5.

"The exceptionally difficult market environment of the quarter exposed some weaknesses in our platform, and we have determined a number of measures to address these weaknesses," he added. "Implementation of these measures is already under way."

The bank said the loss "reflects exposure reduction and other de-risking measures," among other factors.

The bank had reported a profit of euro953 million for the final quarter of 2007 and a profit of euro6.5 billion for the full year 2007.

The news comes on the heels of an announcement last week that the German government was taking a 25 percent stake in Germany's second-largest bank, Commerzbank AG, in a deal that gave Commerzbank another euro10 billion in capital from the government's financial sector rescue fund.

At the time, Commerzbank CEO Martin Blessing said the funds would "enable us to fulfill our responsibility to offer loans" amid what he called an "economically stormy environment."

Deutsche Bank so far has not made use of the rescue fund, which has a total value of up to euro500 billion.

The bank said some of the "corrective adjustments" decided upon by the management board were already implemented in the fourth quarter, while more would follow in 2009.

"Our capital strength, which was successfully maintained, allowed us to withstand these extremely difficult market conditions and to take necessary steps to de-risk our platform," Ackermann said.

"We have substantially reduced our exposures in leveraged finance, commercial real estate and other key credit market exposures, and expect no further material negative impact from these areas."

In addition, Ackermann said, the bank has scaled back or exited trading strategies most affected by market turbulence.

"We have significantly reduced trading assets, and thus reduced balance sheet leverage," he said.

Arriva lo Stato " indirettamente in soccorso a Deutsche Bank
tramite " posta "
( DeutschePost l'azionista di maggioranza è lo Stato):


14.01.09 13:49 - Db: rinegozia termini accordo D.Post per acquisto Postbank
FRANCOFORTE (MF-DJ)--Deutsche Bank e Deutsche Post hanno annunciato la rinegoziazione dei termini dell'accordo per l'acquisto della quota del 62% in Postbank da parte del colosso bancario tedesco.


In base alla nuova intesa, la transazione verra' eseguita in tre tranche per un valore totale di 4,9 miliardi di euro. L'accordo, che dovrebbe essere finalizzato entro il 27 febbraio, prevede ora CHE il gruppo postale RILEVI una partecipazione iniziale dell'8% in Deutsche Bank. Deutsche Post controlla il 62,3% di Postbank e ha venduto la sua quota a Deutsche Bank lo scorso settembre.

 

[yellow]

Citigroup potrebbe ridursi di 1/3 !!

http://www.wallstreetitalia.com/articolo.aspx?art_id=658056

 

[Imark]

Citigroup potrebbe ridursi di 1/3 !!

http://www.wallstreetitalia.com/articolo.aspx?art_id=658056

Devono dismettere asset per fare cassa... e cmq, vista la pachidermicità della costruzione del gruppo, lamentata da anni da tutti gli analisti, un po' di dimagrimento non gli nuocerà di certo, anzi...

 

[METHOS]

ARMAGEDDON NEWS: HSBC POTREBBE AVER BISOGNO DI $30 MILIARDI DI CAPITALI
di WSI
Utili in forte deterioramento stanno creando una situazione di emergenza nella piu' grande banca d'Europa, che potrebbe essere costretta ad effettuare un aumento di capitale pari a $30 miliardi.

HSBC Holdings Plc, la piu' grande banca d'Europa, potrebbe essere costretta ad effettuare un aumento di capitale pari a $30 miliardi e a ridurre drasticamente il dividendo, alla luce del fatto che gli utili sono stimati in deterioramento in modo piu' marcato di quanto ci aspettasse, si legge in un rapporto degli analisti di Morgan Stanley.

 

[Imark]

ARMAGEDDON NEWS: HSBC POTREBBE AVER BISOGNO DI $30 MILIARDI DI CAPITALI
di WSI
Utili in forte deterioramento stanno creando una situazione di emergenza nella piu' grande banca d'Europa, che potrebbe essere costretta ad effettuare un aumento di capitale pari a $30 miliardi.

HSBC Holdings Plc, la piu' grande banca d'Europa, potrebbe essere costretta ad effettuare un aumento di capitale pari a $30 miliardi e a ridurre drasticamente il dividendo, alla luce del fatto che gli utili sono stimati in deterioramento in modo piu' marcato di quanto ci aspettasse, si legge in un rapporto degli analisti di Morgan Stanley.

Il dividendo finiranno per ridurlo drasticamente, se non per azzerarlo, quasi tutte le grandi banche europee ed USA nel 2009...

 

[yellow]

Il dividendo finiranno per ridurlo drasticamente, se non per azzerarlo, quasi tutte le grandi banche europee ed USA nel 2009...

Aggiungici ulteriori ( oramai prossimi ) aumenti di capitale "sostanziosi"
e per gli "azionisti" delle banche sarà la mazzata finale.

 

[paologorgo]

ARMAGEDDON NEWS: HSBC POTREBBE AVER BISOGNO DI $30 MILIARDI DI CAPITALI
di WSI
Utili in forte deterioramento stanno creando una situazione di emergenza nella piu' grande banca d'Europa, che potrebbe essere costretta ad effettuare un aumento di capitale pari a $30 miliardi.

HSBC Holdings Plc, la piu' grande banca d'Europa, potrebbe essere costretta ad effettuare un aumento di capitale pari a $30 miliardi e a ridurre drasticamente il dividendo, alla luce del fatto che gli utili sono stimati in deterioramento in modo piu' marcato di quanto ci aspettasse, si legge in un rapporto degli analisti di Morgan Stanley.

altro punto di vista:

HSBC's Capital Position Splits Major Banking Analysts


LONDON (Dow Jones)--In an unusual move, analysts at UBS on Wednesday commented on Morgan Stanley analysts' note on HSBC Holdings PLC (HBC) and its need to raise billions of dollars in new capital.
In its note, Morgan Stanley analysts said they think HSBC needs to raise $20 billion to $30 billion in new capital, as well as cut its dividend in half.
UBS analysts, who briefly countered Morgan Stanley's analysts on three points, concluded that while they agree that HSBC might have to cut its dividend in half, the bank's capital needs shouldn't exceed $10 billion.
"The other key point is that HSBC can raise this money from their own shareholders, and importantly at a premium to book value. This is more than most banks can say," the UBS analysts said, adding that they are "happy to stay buyers" of the stock with a price target of 770 pence.
Morgan Stanley is underweight on HSBC and cut its price target to 455 pence from 550 pence.
Morgan Stanley argued that HSBC's 7.4% core tier 1 ratio, describing the level of equity held against potential losses on risky assets, is unduly flattered by accounting rules that either don't apply to many of its peers, or by capital that from 2012 will no longer be valid by new accounting rules.
Moreover they suggested that if market valuations had been applied on the loan book at troubled U.S. unit HSBC Finance, further losses would materialize and take another 200 basis points off the core Tier 1 ratio.
The UBS analysts agreed that marking any bank loans to market would raise the need for significant amounts of capital, not just for HSBC but also for other banks, but they ask, "Why possibly should you mark-to-market loans?"
Another point Morgan Stanley makes is that HSBC has one of the weakest capital ratios relative to Hong Kong peers, to which UBS counters that "it is ridiculous to say they need the same capital ratios as small standalone Hong Kong banks."
Questions about HSBC's capital needs have become a more prominent in recent weeks, and especially after all the other U.K. banks late last year launched a second round of cap hikes since the credit crunch started to bite about 18 months ago.
Dresdner Kleinwort analysts in December predicted a dividend cut at HSBC, but only forecast a capital hike if assets for sale that are held on the banking book become permanently impaired. In a "stress-test-scenario," Dresdner thinks HSBC would need $10 billion. At the time, Dresdner's rating on HSBC was hold and the price target was 800 pence.
In a Jan. 5 note, Citigroup analysts, meanwhile, ranked HSBC as a bank that could cope without a capital increase. A few days later, on Jan. 8, they said that "the combination of positive capital generation and surplus liquidity" are attractive features of HSBC.
"HSBC continues to screen well under our stress test scenario and with many banks suffering from capital and funding strain as the economic slowdown intensifies, we believe that HSBC is well positioned to take advantage of organic and acquisitive growth opportunities." Citi rates HSBC buy with an 800 pence price target.
HSBC said it doesn't comment on individual broker reports.
HSBC's share closed down 51.3 pence, or 8%, at 588.7 pence on what was a harsh day for the U.K. banking sector.
After Morgan Stanley's note and a surprise, worse-than-expected, profit warning from Deutsche Bank AG (DB), U.K. bank shares shed 8%-18%. Deutsche Bank itself shed 16%. The Dow Jones Europe Stoxx 600 banks index dropped 8%.
Company Web site: www.hsbc.com
-By Ragnhild Kjetland; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9268; [email protected]