Obbligazioni MPS
- Creatore Discussione Trading Stern
- Data di Inizio
waltermasoni
Caribbean Trader
Mps - Vicina l' intesa tra Tesoro e Commissione Europea sul de-risking 06/01/2020 11:30 - MKI
II Ministero dell' Economia e Finanze e la Commissione Europea sarebbero vicini a trovare un punto d' incontro nell' ambito del negoziato sull' operazione di de-risking relativa a Mps e propedeutica all' uscita dal Tesoro dal capitale della banca senese, prevista entro il 2021.
E' quanto riporta Il Messaggero, secondo cui l' operazione a cui sta lavorando il Tesoro prevede lo spin-off e il trasferimentoTutti gli articoli di 9,5-10 miliardi di crediti deteriorati in capo a Mps ad Amco, controllata dello stesso Mef specializzata nella gestione dei crediti.
Per contro, la Commissione UE avrebbe chiesto di ampliare da 600 milioni a 1 miliardo la dotazione di capitale del veicolo costituito ad hoc in cui far confluire i crediti problematici oggetto di scissione.
Il quotidiano aggiunge che l' interlocuzione dovrebbe riprendere in questa settimana, con l' obiettivo di arrivare ad un accordo entro il 31 gennaio 2020.
A fine 2019 il Mef aveva comunicato lo slittamento a inizio 2020 della presentazione del piano di uscita dal capitale di Mps (di cui detiene il 68,2%) all' inizio del nuovo anno proprio alla luce della suddetta trattativa sul de-risking.
II Ministero dell' Economia e Finanze e la Commissione Europea sarebbero vicini a trovare un punto d' incontro nell' ambito del negoziato sull' operazione di de-risking relativa a Mps e propedeutica all' uscita dal Tesoro dal capitale della banca senese, prevista entro il 2021.
E' quanto riporta Il Messaggero, secondo cui l' operazione a cui sta lavorando il Tesoro prevede lo spin-off e il trasferimentoTutti gli articoli di 9,5-10 miliardi di crediti deteriorati in capo a Mps ad Amco, controllata dello stesso Mef specializzata nella gestione dei crediti.
Per contro, la Commissione UE avrebbe chiesto di ampliare da 600 milioni a 1 miliardo la dotazione di capitale del veicolo costituito ad hoc in cui far confluire i crediti problematici oggetto di scissione.
Il quotidiano aggiunge che l' interlocuzione dovrebbe riprendere in questa settimana, con l' obiettivo di arrivare ad un accordo entro il 31 gennaio 2020.
A fine 2019 il Mef aveva comunicato lo slittamento a inizio 2020 della presentazione del piano di uscita dal capitale di Mps (di cui detiene il 68,2%) all' inizio del nuovo anno proprio alla luce della suddetta trattativa sul de-risking.
waltermasoni
Caribbean Trader
Banca MPS - Secondo IlMessaggero vicino l`accordo con la UE su maxi cessione di NPL. 06/01/2020 12:31 - EQ
Stando al Messaggero, (BMPS.MI) sarebbe vicina ad un accordo con la UE sulla maxi cessione di NPL (c10bn) ad Amco (la società di servicing controllata dal MEF).
Lo schema dell`operazione prevedrebbe il conferimento degli NPL - secondo quanto ci è dato di capire a valore di libro - ad una newco che verrebbe capitalizzata da BMPS con circa 1bn e successivamente trasferita ad Amco.
In mancanza di ulteriori dettagli sull`operazione, è possibile effettuare le seguenti considerazioni:
- ipotizzando la cessione di 10bn NPL a valori di libro ad una newco con 1bn di capitale equivale ad assumere che il trasferimento avvenga con coverage di 66% vs a 53% del 9M. Le sofferenze verrebbero quindi implicitamente trasferite a circa 28 cent
- non è chiaro cosa otterrebbe in cambio BMPS da Amco ma è plausibile ipotizzare una quota (ragionevolmente non di controllo) di Amco stessa. BMPS dovrebbe dedurre l`intera partecipazione dal CET con un impatto negativo di circa 150bps (CET1 9M da 12.6% a 11.1%)
- l`NPE ratio di BMPS scenderebbe da 12.5% a 4.8%, lo stock da 12.5 a 2.5bn.
- l`operazione faciliterebbe l`exit strategy del MEF da BMPS che diventerebbe un target di M&A molto più appetibile potendo utilizzare più rapidamente 2.3bn di DTA fuori bilancio
In questi termini il nostro giudizio sull`operazione sarebbe quindi positivo perché BMPS manterrebbe un CET1 vicino alla comfort zone (12%) con un auspicabile miglioramento della redditività. Da rilevare tuttavia che la riduzione dello stock di NPE (-80%) porterebbe con sé non soltanto minor costo del credito ma anche un rilevante contributo in termini di NII (circa 160mn sul FY in base alle nostre stime), quindi il miglioramento della bottom line potrebbe risultare non così significativo.
HOLD con Target Price 1.6
Si concretizzasse in questi termini sarebbe tanta roba x i sub
Stando al Messaggero, (BMPS.MI) sarebbe vicina ad un accordo con la UE sulla maxi cessione di NPL (c10bn) ad Amco (la società di servicing controllata dal MEF).
Lo schema dell`operazione prevedrebbe il conferimento degli NPL - secondo quanto ci è dato di capire a valore di libro - ad una newco che verrebbe capitalizzata da BMPS con circa 1bn e successivamente trasferita ad Amco.
In mancanza di ulteriori dettagli sull`operazione, è possibile effettuare le seguenti considerazioni:
- ipotizzando la cessione di 10bn NPL a valori di libro ad una newco con 1bn di capitale equivale ad assumere che il trasferimento avvenga con coverage di 66% vs a 53% del 9M. Le sofferenze verrebbero quindi implicitamente trasferite a circa 28 cent
- non è chiaro cosa otterrebbe in cambio BMPS da Amco ma è plausibile ipotizzare una quota (ragionevolmente non di controllo) di Amco stessa. BMPS dovrebbe dedurre l`intera partecipazione dal CET con un impatto negativo di circa 150bps (CET1 9M da 12.6% a 11.1%)
- l`NPE ratio di BMPS scenderebbe da 12.5% a 4.8%, lo stock da 12.5 a 2.5bn.
- l`operazione faciliterebbe l`exit strategy del MEF da BMPS che diventerebbe un target di M&A molto più appetibile potendo utilizzare più rapidamente 2.3bn di DTA fuori bilancio
In questi termini il nostro giudizio sull`operazione sarebbe quindi positivo perché BMPS manterrebbe un CET1 vicino alla comfort zone (12%) con un auspicabile miglioramento della redditività. Da rilevare tuttavia che la riduzione dello stock di NPE (-80%) porterebbe con sé non soltanto minor costo del credito ma anche un rilevante contributo in termini di NII (circa 160mn sul FY in base alle nostre stime), quindi il miglioramento della bottom line potrebbe risultare non così significativo.
HOLD con Target Price 1.6
Si concretizzasse in questi termini sarebbe tanta roba x i sub
marcob77
Moderator
io credo sarebbe tanta roba pure per le senior....il che non mi dispiacerebbe..
NoToc
old style
Su Mps occorre evidenziare che secondo il Messaggero di sabato scorso si sarebbe comunque sbloccata la trattativa del Tesoro (azionista di riferimento della banca senese) con la Commissione europea in merito al percorso di de-risking dell’istituto: l’esecutivo UE chiederebbe comunque il passaggio ad Amco di capitale di compendio per un miliardo (e non solo per 600 mln).
ADVFN del 6/1/2020
ADVFN del 6/1/2020
waltermasoni
Caribbean Trader
B.Mps: Portavoce Ue, per Commissione ok rinvio Piano Mef per uscita
waltermasoni
Caribbean Trader
B.Mps: portavoce Ue, contatti con autorita' italiane su Piano Mef continui
waltermasoni
Caribbean Trader
Rating Action:
Moody's changes the outlook on Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena to positive from negative
09 Jan 2020
BCA upgraded to b3 from caa1, senior unsecured rating affirmed at Caa1
Paris, January 09, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) today changed the outlook on the senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. (MPS) to positive from negative. Moody's upgraded the bank's standalone Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) to b3 from caa1, upgraded the subordinated debt rating to Caa1 from Caa2, and affirmed the long-term senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings at Caa1 and B1 respectively.
Moody's also upgraded the BCA of MPS Capital Services S.p.A. (MPS Capital Services) to b3 from caa1, reflecting Moody's view that this entity is Highly Integrated and Harmonized (HIH) with MPS and that its standalone characteristics have limited credit significance. MPS Capital Services's B1 long-term deposit ratings were affirmed and the outlook changed to positive from negative, in line with the actions on the parent bank.
A full list of affected ratings can be found at the end of this press release.
RATINGS RATIONALE
BCA
The upgrade of MPS's BCA to b3 from caa1 primarily reflects the material improvements in the bank's asset quality. MPS disclosed a pro-forma problem loan ratio of around 12.5% for end-2019, materially down from 18% as of end-2018, as a result of the disposal of €3.8 billion of gross problem loans. The ratio is still much higher than the Italian average of around 8% and the European Union average of around 3%, but is materially improved and means that MPS has beaten the 12.9% NPL ratio target agreed with the European Commission two years ahead of schedule.
The upgrade of the BCA also reflects the improvements in MPS's funding profile, following the bank's issues in the institutional bond market in 2019 of €1.25 billion of senior unsecured debt, €300 million of Tier 2 debt and €2 billion covered bonds, re-establishing some access to wholesale funding. Moody's also expects MPS to repay in the next months the remaining €3.2 billion government guaranteed senior bonds in the market issued in 2017, and to reduce its drawings upon the European Central Bank's (ECB's) Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO). MPS's current TLTRO borrowings are currently among the highest in the Euro area at around 12% of the bank's total assets.
At 30 September 2019, MPS reported a transitional Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 14.8% (12.6% fully loaded) and a transitional Total Capital ratio of 16.7% (14.6% fully loaded). These ratios are above the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process requirement for 2020 yet the bank actually has limited capital headroom in Moody's view given the need to further reduce problem loans and its constrained access to new equity. MPS benefits from ample liquidity although this will in part be used to repay its government-guaranteed bonds and reduce its ECB funding.
MPS announced on 9 January 2020 that it had re-assessed the value of its deferred tax assets (DTAs) as per new tax regulations and the evolution of the macroeconomic scenario, resulting in an impairment of €1.2 billion DTAs out of the total €3.1 billion DTAs outstanding. The impairment will be reflected in the 4Q19 results and will likely result in a material loss for the full year 2019. This loss does not however change Moody's view of MPS's creditworthiness since DTAs are already deducted from capital ratios and therefore their write-down does not represent a change in the bank's ability to absorb unexpected losses.
MPS's BCA of b3 continues to incorporate one-notch negative adjustment for corporate behavior to reflect the continued uncertainty over the bank's strategy going forward. Corporate governance is a key credit consideration for MPS, as weak governance in the past had led to poor strategic decisions. Currently MPS's main shareholder is the Italian Ministry of Finance with a 68% share, making it de facto a nationalised bank. The EU requires the Italian government to dispose of its stake in the bank by 2021 as a condition for the state aid received which is supposed to be precautionary and temporary. To this end MPS will have not only to complete a drastic reduction in problem loans but also achieve further progress in restoring the long-term viability of its franchise. The planned disposal of the government's stake will also likely radically change the bank's governance, depending on the ultimate shareholders.
The upgrade of the BCA of MPS Capital Services to b3 from caa1 is in line with the upgrade of MPS's BCA, as a large portion of MPS Capital Services's activities and revenues is linked to its parent, with which MPS Capital Services shares most of its clients. Furthermore, MPS Capital Services relies upon the management structure of MPS. As such, MPS Capital Services's BCA is practically indistinguishable from that of MPS.
LONG-TERM SENIOR UNSECURED DEBT, SUBORDINATED DEBT AND DEPOSIT RATINGS
The affirmation of the long-term deposit rating at B1 reflects the upgrade of the BCA to b3 from caa1 and very low loss-given-failure, resulting in two notches of uplift from the bank's Adjusted BCA, from extremely low loss-given-failure which gave three notches of uplift previously. This follows the redemption of long-term debt which reduces the protection from loss for deposits.
Similarly, the affirmation of the Caa1 long-term senior unsecured debt rating reflects the upgrade of the BCA, offset by increased loss-given-failure (now high rather than moderate) given the lower volume of senior debt following redemptions.
The upgrade of the rating to Caa1 from Caa2 on MPS's subordinated debt, which was already considered to be subject to high loss-given-failure, reflects the upgrade of the bank's BCA.
Moody's assumes a low likelihood of government support for the bank's rated liabilities, resulting in no further uplift to the long-term senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings.
OUTLOOKS
The outlooks on MPS's long-term senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings are positive, reflecting the possibility for a further material reduction in the bank's problem loans in the medium term whilst maintaining capital levels above regulatory requirements and additional progress in restoring the franchise value the bank.
The positive outlook on MPS Capital Services's long-term deposit ratings reflects the positive outlook on the parent bank.
Moody's changes the outlook on Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena to positive from negative
09 Jan 2020
BCA upgraded to b3 from caa1, senior unsecured rating affirmed at Caa1
Paris, January 09, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) today changed the outlook on the senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. (MPS) to positive from negative. Moody's upgraded the bank's standalone Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) to b3 from caa1, upgraded the subordinated debt rating to Caa1 from Caa2, and affirmed the long-term senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings at Caa1 and B1 respectively.
Moody's also upgraded the BCA of MPS Capital Services S.p.A. (MPS Capital Services) to b3 from caa1, reflecting Moody's view that this entity is Highly Integrated and Harmonized (HIH) with MPS and that its standalone characteristics have limited credit significance. MPS Capital Services's B1 long-term deposit ratings were affirmed and the outlook changed to positive from negative, in line with the actions on the parent bank.
A full list of affected ratings can be found at the end of this press release.
RATINGS RATIONALE
BCA
The upgrade of MPS's BCA to b3 from caa1 primarily reflects the material improvements in the bank's asset quality. MPS disclosed a pro-forma problem loan ratio of around 12.5% for end-2019, materially down from 18% as of end-2018, as a result of the disposal of €3.8 billion of gross problem loans. The ratio is still much higher than the Italian average of around 8% and the European Union average of around 3%, but is materially improved and means that MPS has beaten the 12.9% NPL ratio target agreed with the European Commission two years ahead of schedule.
The upgrade of the BCA also reflects the improvements in MPS's funding profile, following the bank's issues in the institutional bond market in 2019 of €1.25 billion of senior unsecured debt, €300 million of Tier 2 debt and €2 billion covered bonds, re-establishing some access to wholesale funding. Moody's also expects MPS to repay in the next months the remaining €3.2 billion government guaranteed senior bonds in the market issued in 2017, and to reduce its drawings upon the European Central Bank's (ECB's) Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO). MPS's current TLTRO borrowings are currently among the highest in the Euro area at around 12% of the bank's total assets.
At 30 September 2019, MPS reported a transitional Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 14.8% (12.6% fully loaded) and a transitional Total Capital ratio of 16.7% (14.6% fully loaded). These ratios are above the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process requirement for 2020 yet the bank actually has limited capital headroom in Moody's view given the need to further reduce problem loans and its constrained access to new equity. MPS benefits from ample liquidity although this will in part be used to repay its government-guaranteed bonds and reduce its ECB funding.
MPS announced on 9 January 2020 that it had re-assessed the value of its deferred tax assets (DTAs) as per new tax regulations and the evolution of the macroeconomic scenario, resulting in an impairment of €1.2 billion DTAs out of the total €3.1 billion DTAs outstanding. The impairment will be reflected in the 4Q19 results and will likely result in a material loss for the full year 2019. This loss does not however change Moody's view of MPS's creditworthiness since DTAs are already deducted from capital ratios and therefore their write-down does not represent a change in the bank's ability to absorb unexpected losses.
MPS's BCA of b3 continues to incorporate one-notch negative adjustment for corporate behavior to reflect the continued uncertainty over the bank's strategy going forward. Corporate governance is a key credit consideration for MPS, as weak governance in the past had led to poor strategic decisions. Currently MPS's main shareholder is the Italian Ministry of Finance with a 68% share, making it de facto a nationalised bank. The EU requires the Italian government to dispose of its stake in the bank by 2021 as a condition for the state aid received which is supposed to be precautionary and temporary. To this end MPS will have not only to complete a drastic reduction in problem loans but also achieve further progress in restoring the long-term viability of its franchise. The planned disposal of the government's stake will also likely radically change the bank's governance, depending on the ultimate shareholders.
The upgrade of the BCA of MPS Capital Services to b3 from caa1 is in line with the upgrade of MPS's BCA, as a large portion of MPS Capital Services's activities and revenues is linked to its parent, with which MPS Capital Services shares most of its clients. Furthermore, MPS Capital Services relies upon the management structure of MPS. As such, MPS Capital Services's BCA is practically indistinguishable from that of MPS.
LONG-TERM SENIOR UNSECURED DEBT, SUBORDINATED DEBT AND DEPOSIT RATINGS
The affirmation of the long-term deposit rating at B1 reflects the upgrade of the BCA to b3 from caa1 and very low loss-given-failure, resulting in two notches of uplift from the bank's Adjusted BCA, from extremely low loss-given-failure which gave three notches of uplift previously. This follows the redemption of long-term debt which reduces the protection from loss for deposits.
Similarly, the affirmation of the Caa1 long-term senior unsecured debt rating reflects the upgrade of the BCA, offset by increased loss-given-failure (now high rather than moderate) given the lower volume of senior debt following redemptions.
The upgrade of the rating to Caa1 from Caa2 on MPS's subordinated debt, which was already considered to be subject to high loss-given-failure, reflects the upgrade of the bank's BCA.
Moody's assumes a low likelihood of government support for the bank's rated liabilities, resulting in no further uplift to the long-term senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings.
OUTLOOKS
The outlooks on MPS's long-term senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings are positive, reflecting the possibility for a further material reduction in the bank's problem loans in the medium term whilst maintaining capital levels above regulatory requirements and additional progress in restoring the franchise value the bank.
The positive outlook on MPS Capital Services's long-term deposit ratings reflects the positive outlook on the parent bank.
Fabrib
Forumer storico
Il beneficio fiscale che fa ballare un miliardo nei conti di Montepaschi
Con il ritorno dell’Ace nei conti dell’istituto apparirà una perdita di 1,2 miliardi. Ma la sua cancellazione nel 2018 aveva portato un utile di 261 milioni
La Stampa/Paolucci -contenuto riservato-
Con il ritorno dell’Ace nei conti dell’istituto apparirà una perdita di 1,2 miliardi. Ma la sua cancellazione nel 2018 aveva portato un utile di 261 milioni
La Stampa/Paolucci -contenuto riservato-
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