Dunque, l'opinione comune e logica direbbero che dopo la sparata che ha fatto il mercato nelle ultime 2 settimane come minimo il mercato deve stornare perchè "un ritracciamento, meglio se consistente, è indispensabile e salutare".
Ma storicamente è stato veramente così ?
Ecco qui sotto l'estratto di un art. tratto dal Blog di Steenbarger:
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/07/when-market-strength-follows-market.html
A 2%+ up day for the S&P after multiple days of higher highs and higher lows doesn’t sound like a great time to buy. Prices are high, so it’s natural to wait for a pullback. The problem is that the pullback is often quicker and shallower than expected before the market takes off again. Here’s a look at all cases since 1965 in which the S&P gained 2%+ after three days of higher highs and higher lows. While there have only been ten cases, it’s noteworthy that the market moved higher over the next two weeks in all but one instance…
S&P500 2% Up Day After Three Days of Higher Highs & Lows
07/23/09… S&P500 ??? two weeks later
03/17/09… S&P500 +2.5% two weeks later
12/30/91… S&P500 +1.3% two weeks later
05/11/90… S&P500 +0.7% two weeks later
12/18/87… S&P500 +3.8% two weeks later
03/11/86… S&P500 +1.3% two weeks later
10/11/82… S&P500 -0.9% two weeks later
08/02/78… S&P500 +1.7% two weeks later
08/16/71… S&P500 +0.8% two weeks later
08/24/70… S&P500 +2.5% two weeks later
04/01/68… S&P500 +4.7% two weeks later
In conclusione: non bisognerebbe aspettarsi storni consistenti, anzi, per quanto incredibile, la salita ha moltissime probabilità di continuare...
![Ciao a tutti :ciao: :ciao:](/images/smilies/ciaoatutti.gif)