FTSE Mib Futures solointraday - Cap. 3 (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione DRIVE
- Data di Inizio
Tier1
Forumer attivo
forex
Last November, with the growing realization that Shinzo Abe would be the victor in the coming Japanese election, the yen began a dramatic and steady decline against the US dollar, the euro, and every other major currency. By January, it was clear that this reversal of form was so significant that it could only be compared to one previous episode in the yen's floating rate history and that was the collapse it suffered in 1995 after it had strengthened against a globally weak dollar earlier that year. But 1995 was different. That time, the yen had been severely overbought when it began its impressive reversal from the 79.75 level. This time, the dollar had not been weak and the yen was not overbought either. In fact, the dollar was already in a mild uptrend when it began to accelerate. Furthermore, there were few who claimed that the yen was overvalued – most managers were ignoring it. Why trade something that hadn't moved in months?
Analysts like us had been arguing that the yen had plenty of reason to be strong, as the other globally important central banks were expanding their assets and money supplies more aggressively than the Bank of Japan. In a way, the world was actually short of yen, in that there were fewer excess yen floating around. It was hard for the yen to fall, but Abe planned to change the BoJ and, if it were to expand its force-feeding of yen to the market, this would constitute a major reversal upsetting years of passivity. This would make it easy to sell yen. So it fell, or collapsed. Over time, Abe's move could prove to be very risky for the Japanese and their economy, but the implications for Asia, emerging markets in general and the world could be much worse. Not only will Japan be taking back export market shares from others like Korea, Taiwan, and China, but it will be moving some production home. As a result, Asian economies will weaken, their currencies will be forced lower and more deflation will be pushed out into the world. Developed world workers will see their jobs endangered by cheap imports yet again.
Yes, "yet again." Why? Because these events look strangely parallel to those leading up to the Asian Crisis of 1997. Some things look better, some worse, but a very weak yen and the altered dynamics among Asian exporters is similar. The Asian currencies are floating now, so they won't crack like they did when the Thai government let the baht collapse, followed quickly by the other dominoes which fell one by one. That previous experience should allow today's authorities to mitigate some of the damage. However, the world economy is much weaker than it was in the mid-90's. Europe isn't buying and the US consumer is off the boil, so that means the battle to secure export share will more brutal. The last Asian crisis, with its recession and deflation hard on its heels, occurred about two years after the yen began its 1995 collapse. The yen dropped from 80 to 127, or 37%. The timetable for the next one would call for early 2014, and we should expect the dollar to reach the 125 area by that time.
The Australian dollar has been relatively bulletproof during the past two years. This commodity exporting country has been faced with falling prices for the raw materials it exports since April of 2011 and yet the currency has traded in a broad range during this time. In our opinion there are two main factors that explain the strength of the currency, and they both affect capital flows. The first is interest rates –Australia has had the highest rates among the G10 currencies which, along with the added benefit of a relatively rare AAA credit rating, make the AUD a favorite of both carry trades and central banks. The second reason the Aussie has held up so well is the mining boom, which caused money to flood into the country. Now, the Australian dollar is starting to lose its attractiveness. With the recent cut in the Official Cash Rate by ¼% to 2.75%, the short-term interest rate advantage of Australia has fallen below that of New Zealand. The markets are expecting the RBA to cut interest rates further this year and this will continue to undermine the currency. The mining boom in Australia has been ending for quite some time – in August of last year, the then-Resource Minister Martin Ferguson said, ‘The commodity price boom is over and anyone with half a brain knows that.” A combination of lower commodity prices and slowing capital inflows should result in the Aussie breaking out of its trading band to the downside and the weakness should last for several months.
With the Aussie falling 4% in four weeks, and likely to have the lowest weekly close since June of last year, owners of long positions should be starting to get nervous. Fortunately, the cycles argue the Aussie should recover for a week or so before the downtrend resumes and this should provide an opportunity to exit long positions at better levels. It should bottom on Thursday and hold above the support at 1.0125 and then turn higher and rally into late next week or at the most a few days longer. Our target for this recovery is the 1.0300 area and if seen this should be a good place to sell. The Australian dollar should then turn lower and decline into the week of June 3, when an initial low is due. It should close below the support at 1.0125 and fall to the .9875 area by early June. Following this low the Aussie should recover for a few weeks before the downtrend resumes into July and possibly August. Our further objective for the downtrend is the .9500 area. Only if the Aussie closes above 1.0300 does this mean that it remains in a wide trading range. It would then rally to the 1.0540 area late June, but this positive outlook is much less likely.
Last November, with the growing realization that Shinzo Abe would be the victor in the coming Japanese election, the yen began a dramatic and steady decline against the US dollar, the euro, and every other major currency. By January, it was clear that this reversal of form was so significant that it could only be compared to one previous episode in the yen's floating rate history and that was the collapse it suffered in 1995 after it had strengthened against a globally weak dollar earlier that year. But 1995 was different. That time, the yen had been severely overbought when it began its impressive reversal from the 79.75 level. This time, the dollar had not been weak and the yen was not overbought either. In fact, the dollar was already in a mild uptrend when it began to accelerate. Furthermore, there were few who claimed that the yen was overvalued – most managers were ignoring it. Why trade something that hadn't moved in months?
Analysts like us had been arguing that the yen had plenty of reason to be strong, as the other globally important central banks were expanding their assets and money supplies more aggressively than the Bank of Japan. In a way, the world was actually short of yen, in that there were fewer excess yen floating around. It was hard for the yen to fall, but Abe planned to change the BoJ and, if it were to expand its force-feeding of yen to the market, this would constitute a major reversal upsetting years of passivity. This would make it easy to sell yen. So it fell, or collapsed. Over time, Abe's move could prove to be very risky for the Japanese and their economy, but the implications for Asia, emerging markets in general and the world could be much worse. Not only will Japan be taking back export market shares from others like Korea, Taiwan, and China, but it will be moving some production home. As a result, Asian economies will weaken, their currencies will be forced lower and more deflation will be pushed out into the world. Developed world workers will see their jobs endangered by cheap imports yet again.
Yes, "yet again." Why? Because these events look strangely parallel to those leading up to the Asian Crisis of 1997. Some things look better, some worse, but a very weak yen and the altered dynamics among Asian exporters is similar. The Asian currencies are floating now, so they won't crack like they did when the Thai government let the baht collapse, followed quickly by the other dominoes which fell one by one. That previous experience should allow today's authorities to mitigate some of the damage. However, the world economy is much weaker than it was in the mid-90's. Europe isn't buying and the US consumer is off the boil, so that means the battle to secure export share will more brutal. The last Asian crisis, with its recession and deflation hard on its heels, occurred about two years after the yen began its 1995 collapse. The yen dropped from 80 to 127, or 37%. The timetable for the next one would call for early 2014, and we should expect the dollar to reach the 125 area by that time.
The Australian dollar has been relatively bulletproof during the past two years. This commodity exporting country has been faced with falling prices for the raw materials it exports since April of 2011 and yet the currency has traded in a broad range during this time. In our opinion there are two main factors that explain the strength of the currency, and they both affect capital flows. The first is interest rates –Australia has had the highest rates among the G10 currencies which, along with the added benefit of a relatively rare AAA credit rating, make the AUD a favorite of both carry trades and central banks. The second reason the Aussie has held up so well is the mining boom, which caused money to flood into the country. Now, the Australian dollar is starting to lose its attractiveness. With the recent cut in the Official Cash Rate by ¼% to 2.75%, the short-term interest rate advantage of Australia has fallen below that of New Zealand. The markets are expecting the RBA to cut interest rates further this year and this will continue to undermine the currency. The mining boom in Australia has been ending for quite some time – in August of last year, the then-Resource Minister Martin Ferguson said, ‘The commodity price boom is over and anyone with half a brain knows that.” A combination of lower commodity prices and slowing capital inflows should result in the Aussie breaking out of its trading band to the downside and the weakness should last for several months.
With the Aussie falling 4% in four weeks, and likely to have the lowest weekly close since June of last year, owners of long positions should be starting to get nervous. Fortunately, the cycles argue the Aussie should recover for a week or so before the downtrend resumes and this should provide an opportunity to exit long positions at better levels. It should bottom on Thursday and hold above the support at 1.0125 and then turn higher and rally into late next week or at the most a few days longer. Our target for this recovery is the 1.0300 area and if seen this should be a good place to sell. The Australian dollar should then turn lower and decline into the week of June 3, when an initial low is due. It should close below the support at 1.0125 and fall to the .9875 area by early June. Following this low the Aussie should recover for a few weeks before the downtrend resumes into July and possibly August. Our further objective for the downtrend is the .9500 area. Only if the Aussie closes above 1.0300 does this mean that it remains in a wide trading range. It would then rally to the 1.0540 area late June, but this positive outlook is much less likely.
purplegate
Non anticipare mai...
il ftse se leggo bene dovrebbe aver ch un 8h verso le h15,00 e quindi un paio d'ore di forza sono ammesse, tutto salvo troncamenti o cicli complex...
livello spartiacque di BT a 17240pts...
livello spartiacque di BT a 17240pts...
massimo65
Forumer storico
se mi posso permettere......quando lo consideri partito il t+3 in corso???
purplegate
Non anticipare mai...
al momento il 5apr13, ma il min del 17apr13 non va trascurato in ottica pluri-index..
michi68
Forumer attivo
massimo65
Forumer storico
Alxj
Forumer storico
,,,,,speravo un mesetto prima !!!!!
dovrebbe tornarti molto comodo invece... perchè farebbe partire da lì il 3° T+3 dell'annuale...
purplegate
Non anticipare mai...
quel mesetto è la lingua...,,,,,speravo un mesetto prima !!!!!
