Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 2

[Rottweiler]

Any comments for Espirito Santo XS0303426661?

Hi!

The reports we are getting from Greece on the government-troika discussions are very pessimistic.
What are your tv news saying? Will Greece accept the requested budget cuts? Or will you give up and default?
What atmosphere do you feel at this very moment?

(Sorry: it is our turn to put forward some questions...)

 

[akis63]

The meeting of political leaders who support the government has just ended without a decision on the requirements of the Troika.
There will be another meeting tomorrow.
Thriller but with a known result.
Actually, I do not think the situation is so tragic, as shown.
The political system wants to present tragically the situation to easily achieve the consent of the people and to show effort and work.
It is the fifth or sixth time that the Greek people experiencing this condition the last 2 years.
The only sure for me is that new taxes and income cut are in front of us to meet the 2011 and 2012 budget and to stay in the eurozone.
Poverty is "ante portas" (to remember Romans).
A good chance for traders because Athens stock exchange -after the recent rally- will maybe fall tomorrow under the doubt of nationalization of banks.

I translate using Google translator what i am reading in Greeks internet sites:

Completed shortly before 20.30 the meeting of political leaders participating in the government, chaired by Lucas Papademos.
"For the first time there is a true negotiation. Troika wants more recession that the country can not afford. I fight and fight with all means to prevent it, "said President of New Democracy, on arrival at the offices of the party at Avenue, shortly after the meeting.
Outgoing "Maximos Mansion" after the meeting, which lasted about five hours, the President of LAOS, G. Karatzaferis announced that there will be continuity. He also stressed that he "would not contribute to the outbreak of the revolution from the misery of poverty that will overwhelm all Europe."

 

[Cat XL]

(Sorry: it is our turn to put forward some questions...)[/QUOTE]

 

[Cat XL]

Any comments for Espirito Santo XS0303426661?

If Greece does not default I would keep it. It is a pretty decent bank. The problem is the Portuguese Sovereign risk.

 

[akis63]

If Greece does not default I would keep it. It is a pretty decent bank. The problem is the Portuguese Sovereign risk.

This is a serious problem indeed. BCP already posted major losses.
What about the liquidity of this bond?

 

[akis63]

Statement by the Press Office of the Prime Minister

The prime minister and political leaders of three parties supporting the government met to take joint decision on the content of the basic elements of an agreement with the troika on the new economic program in Greece that is a prerequisite for new financial support of the country .

The prime minister and political leaders agreed on key issues which, inter alia, include:

1) The measures in 2012 to reduce public spending by 1.5% of GDP.

2) Ensuring the sustainability of supplementary pension funds.

3) Dealing with the deficit competitiveness through measures that include adjustments in various areas, such as reducing the wage and non wage labor costs, in order to promote employment and economic activity.

4) the recapitalization of banks with combined resources to ensure the promotion of public interest and business autonomy.

The prime minister and political leaders will meet again tomorrow to complete the consultations on the content of the program.

 

[samantaao]

The meeting of political leaders who support the government has just ended without a decision on the requirements of the Troika.
There will be another meeting tomorrow.
Thriller but with a known result.
Actually, I do not think the situation is so tragic, as shown.
The political system wants to present tragically the situation to easily achieve the consent of the people and to show effort and work.
It is the fifth or sixth time that the Greek people experiencing this condition the last 2 years.
The only sure for me is that new taxes and income cut are in front of us to meet the 2011 and 2012 budget and to stay in the eurozone.
Poverty is "ante portas" (to remember Romans).
A good chance for traders because Athens stock exchange -after the recent rally- will maybe fall tomorrow under the doubt of nationalization of banks.
."

I agree, in italy too, I think it's a normal practice, panic is a strong digester everywhere

 

[samantaao]

Questa mi interessa: venderesti perchè ti sembra ISP sia cresciuta troppo o per timore che la situazione complessiva degeneri?

A me le ISP a 82-85 sembrano, più che un bel vendere, un bel comprare....

piccola premessa
ricordo che nel 2007 (circa) abn fece una tender offer su una marea di bond (anche non suoi)... io ne avevo un paio e guarda un po', offrivano meno del mercato. oggi non ne so tanta ma allora ero proprio un pivellino e non riuscivo a capire la faccenda, la finanza si era dipinta ancor più di mistero per me... forse allora volevano beccare qualche sprovveduto o rigirarsi qualcosa dai loro fondi oppure non ne ho idea

le perpetue solitamente non sono in mano a totali sprovveduti almeno fino a capire che non si aderisce se il prezzo è inferiore al mercato
quindi non mi aspetto nessuna tender inferiore ai prezzi correnti


tornando a noi:
sono abbastanza convinto che le opa tappino le quotazioni di isp, se uc vale 80 con un adc a buon fine isp non vale tanto di più, bisogna aspettare che termini l'effetto opa di uc per vedere quanto le prezza veramente il mercato, data la tendenza mi viene da pensare almeno 90 (uc compresa)

senze queste aspettative ognuno andrebbe per la sua strada, forse il bp sarebbe + basso, e con l'italia che va bene isp più alto, ma i riflessi sono inevitabili

ritorno quindi al mio dubbio:
siccome si è aperta la stagione delle tender, vuoi che isp (che non ha bisogno di capitale) faccia opa a 90 x racimolare 2 soldi? magari sì, ma se fossi io aspetterei un buferina e lancerei a prezzi più bassi al momento opportuno... forse la prima stagione delle tender è già finita

quindi:
-se guardo solo i btp crescere e non penso agli effetti opa isp a 82 è un buy
-se penso che ci sarà un'altro storno (e le probabilità non sono basse) potrebbe essere un sell per rientrare + basso ed aspettare la tender di isp che rialzerà le quotazioni per una seconda stagione delle tender

come amorgos non ho la sfera e nel dubbio terrò fino a quando la situazione non cambierà

 

[dierre]

The prime minister and political leaders of three parties supporting the government met to take joint decision on the content of the basic elements of an agreement with the troika on the new economic program in Greece that is a prerequisite for new financial support of the country .

The prime minister and political leaders agreed on key issues which, inter alia, include:

1) The measures in 2012 to reduce public spending by 1.5% of GDP.

2) Ensuring the sustainability of supplementary pension funds.

3) Dealing with the deficit competitiveness through measures that include adjustments in various areas, such as reducing the wage and non wage labor costs, in order to promote employment and economic activity.

4) the recapitalization of banks with combined resources to ensure the promotion of public interest and business autonomy.

The prime minister and political leaders will meet again tomorrow to complete the consultations on the content of the program.

What you think about greece haircuts for private investors? (retail not banks)

 

[mellis]

Ciao,
stavo dando un'occhiata alle varie perpetual, volendo reinvestire un po' di liquidità post UC tender; stavo guardando alle inglesi in particolare a LLoyds/HBOS che come fatto notare da qualcuno giorni fa da inizio febbraio dovrebbero ricominciare a pagare cedole; francamente i cash yield sulle Tier 1 LLoyds sono molto interessanti......il core tier 1 è già oltre il 10% e sui 9 mesi se non erro sono in utile; il deleveraging dando una rapida occhiata y/y sta continuando...bè come la vedete????