Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 2

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Fonsai rnc A a 64, vicino al massimo di stamattina a 64,65.
Vista la salita impetuosa, secondo me occorre cominciare a fare qualche riflessione sul punto di uscita.
Io inizialmente mi ero dato un target a 70-75, che ormai non è poi così distante. Ricordo però che il Negus aveva sondato un pò in giro e gli era stato dato un possibile target a 60-65 (ormai quasi superato), considerandola una perpetual distressed e quindi con uno yield minimo del 10% (teorico visto che ad ora non paga).
Resta il fatto che Unipol ha dichiarato che prevede di andare in utile tra tre anni, quindi è verosimile che i dividendi accumulati siano persi e comincerà a pagare nel 2015 o nel 2016, pagando 19,5 euro come primo dividendo.
Cosa ne pensate?

Preciso che il possibile target lo avevo dato io, sulla base del fatto che mi è stato detto che ormai il mercato tende a prezzarle come un perpetual irredimibile, basandomi sulla comparazione con titoli italiani di emittenti simili.

Da allora gli spread si sono ulteriormente ridotti, sia della robba italiana che dei perpetuals in generale, quindi ci sta un repricing di almeno 5 punti.

Anche in futuro credo che questa si muoverà seguendo la tendenza dei perpetuals, mentre le FonSai Risp B dovrebbero essere più correlate all'andamento delle azioni ordinarie.
 
Per carità....

Ciao Gion,

figurati, non mi permetto di giudicare l'ingresso ora.

Io ho provato solo a sottolineare un trend non positivo.
Se vogliamo grassettare grassettiamo tutto, anche che l'articolo si apre con il downgrade del subordinato.

Poi magari va a 100 (o a 40), ma l'intervento dopo aver analizzato lo stato patrimoniale e l'evoluzione dei flussi di cassa ritengo possa solo essere di contributo alla discussione. :)

L'azione non è passata da 9 a 5,9, in un mercato bullish, per caso.....:cool:

La call è tra 5 anni, un tempo biblico.

Rating Action: Moody's downgrades Wienerberger's CFR to Ba2, Outlook stable
Global Credit Research - 26 Apr 2012
NOTE: On October 15, 2012, the press release was revised as follows: In the first paragraph, second sentence, add LGD Rates for subordinated and senior unsecured Medium Term Notes. The complete corrected sentence reads as follows: "Concurrently we have downgraded the rating on Wienerberger's EUR500 million subordinated notes to B1 (LGD6, 97%) and the rating on the group's senior unsecured Medium Term Notes to Ba2 (LGD4, 61%).” Revised release follows:

Frankfurt am Main, April 26, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Services has today downgraded the Probability of Default and Corporate Family ratings of Wienerberger AG by one-notch to Ba2. Concurrently we have downgraded the rating on Wienerberger's EUR500 million subordinated notes to B1 (LGD6, 97%) and the rating on the group's senior unsecured Medium Term Notes to Ba2 (LGD4, 61%). The outlook on all ratings is stable. This concludes Moody's review for possible downgrade initiated on 17 February 2012.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The downgrade of Wienerberger's Corporate Family rating reflects the group's weak credit metrics for the current Ba1 rating category with RCF/Net debt of 17.6% at fiscal year-end 2011 versus expectations of close to 20% for the current rating category, especially taking into account the fact that 2011 was possibly a peak or close-to-peak year in the current economic cycle. The downgrade to Ba2 also reflects Wienerberger's exposure to the highly volatile markets of new residential construction , a low, albeit recently improved interest coverage as measured by EBIT/Interest of 1.3x per end of 2011, and the group's weak profitability as measured by EBIT / Average Assets and if compared to most European peers in the building materials industry. Moody's expects that trading conditions over the next twelve to eighteen months will be challenging as a result of continued sovereign tensions and declining consumer confidence. Wienerberger will also face relatively strong comparatives going into 2012 in certain markets such as Germany, France and Poland, which could make it difficult to improve credit metrics further in 2012.

At the same time Wienerberger will close the debt-financed acquisition of a 50% stake in Pipelife (Wienerberger currently owns 50% of Pipelife) for a cash consideration of EUR162 million (plus EUR10 million of dividends to be paid to Solvay, the seller). Wienerberger will consolidate EUR71 million of net indebtedness at Pipelife (no change of control triggered by acquisitions through core shareholder). The acquisition of Pipelife makes strategic sense and will support the group's efforts to diversify away from the cyclical new residential construction markets. Despite being debt-financed the acquisition of Pipelife will have only limited impact on the credit metrics of the group given the low leverage of Pipelife on a standalone basis and the fact that Wienerberger only has to acquire 50% of Pipelife to be able to fully consolidate this entity. The consolidation of Pipelife will be ROCE accretive and will help Wienerberger restore a stronger ROCE.

Wienerberger has a solid liquidity profile. The group had EUR504 million of cash on balance sheet at 31st December 2011 and EUR250 million availability under the group's revolving credit facilities. Wienerberger has issued EUR200 million of bonds in Q1 2012, the proceeds of which have been received beginning of February. The group's internal and external liquidity sources should be more than sufficient to fund the acquisition price of EUR172 million (EUR70 million of net indebtedness will not have to be refinanced), to cover EUR452 million of maturities over the next twelve months and to cover other cash needs over the next twelve months (mainly capex, working capital, dividends and working cash). Moody's also notes that Wienerberger has ample headroom under its financial covenants even pro-forma of the acquisition of Pipelife.

Wienerberger will be comfortably positioned in the Ba2 rating category pro-forma of the acquisition of Pipelife. A stronger market recovery than currently anticipated coupled with a conservative financial policy leading to sustained positive free cash flow generation as well an improvement in RCF/Net debt towards 20% and EBIT / Interest towards 2.0x could lead to a rating upgrade over time. (Non per questo l'outlook è stabile)

A sharp deterioration in market conditions leading to materially negative free cash flow generation and RCF/Net debt (pro-forma of the acquisition of Pipelife) dropping sustainably below 15% would exert negative pressure on Wienerberger's rating. EBIT / Interest dropping below 1.0x would also exert negative pressure on the ratings.

The principal methodology used in rating Wienerberger AG was the Global Building Materials Industry Methodology published in July 2009. Other methodologies used include Loss Given Default for Speculative-Grade Non-Financial Companies in the U.S., Canada and EMEA published in June 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on Moody's - credit ratings, research, tools and analysis for the global capital markets for a copy of these methodologies.

Headquartered in Vienna, Austria, Wienerberger AG is the world's largest brick manufacturer and Europe's largest producer of clay roof tiles. The group produces bricks, clay roof tiles, pavers and clay and plastic pipes in 230 plants and operates in 27 countries worldwide and five export markets. The company's main markets are North America (7% of 2011sales), Central-West Europe (22% of 2011 sales), North-West Europe (40% of 2011 sales) and Central-East Europe (29% of 2011 sales). Wienerberger generated revenues of EUR 2.0 billion in fiscal year 2011.

Devono metabolizzare l'acquisizione.
 
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Per i veri cassettisti ... Abn sta emettendo un lt2 in sgd .. Roba da veri prof della finanza... Vi terró aggiornati .. 100k min 5% coupon . Oggi ho messo il 30% del mio pft nel nuovo btp italia
 
Troppo buono :bow::bow:
Comunque di idee al momento ne ho poche, e pure confuse. E' diventato tutto caro. Sarei tentato da Friends Provident, ma il cambio mi intimorisce :rolleyes:


...se volete spendere poco e comprare molto...faccio un po di pubblicita' ...

Sirtaki bonds...

Sono ancora a prezzi ..." giusti...onesti direi"

Non so' per quanto...;)
 
Urbi et orbi...Sono fesso
...ho venduto 3,000 pezzi di fondiaria risp a a 56.5 last week....
E' giusto cosi'...

:eek: :eek::eek: ...ora si capiscono i motivi di tutta la vol su questo titolo.

Vi lanciate con una montagna di denaro su titolini sottili...qui stiamo diventando peggio delle boiler room della Florida
 
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parlando di errori


io di fondiaria ne ho ancora parecchie,

ma al compenso sono liquido ancora al 25% pensate che fesso :wall::wall:

e il bello è che credevo nella salita. ma perchè non ho reinvestito in questi giorni? bho


domani penso di buttare tutto su btp italia



nonostante tutto la performance non è male, ma ora che mi sono accorto che non ho usato al meglio liquidità mi sto incazz...:eek:
 
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