Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 2

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Domanda: cosa si intende (ultima frase) per certificati mutualistici? Si tratta in concreto di obbligazioni ibride o cosa? Cat, Rott?

Merci!

Sempre per cercare di prevedere i futuri sviluppi di Groupama:

Groupama renonce à ouvrir son capital et à entrer en Bourse | Reuters

Significativo quanto Martel dichiara (e conferma) a proposito degli sviluppi dell'azionariato:

"Je peux vous confirmer que le projet d'ouverture du capital a été abandonné par le conseil d'administration, complètement abandonné", a déclaré Jean-Yves Dagès, le président de Groupama, lors d'une conférence de presse. "C'est une satisfaction après l'année difficile que nous avons vécue."

Prié de dire si le groupe était en mesure de rester indépendant après avoir cédé de nombreux actifs, Thierry Martel, le directeur général du groupe, a répondu : "Oui, tout à fait. 2012 a été l'année de la cure d'amaigrissement. Aujourd'hui, on a retrouvé un poids de forme."

"A aucun moment, l'ACP (Autorité de contrôle prudentiel) ne nous a mis sous pression pour nous adosser, pas plus d'ailleurs le Trésor ou le gouvernement", a ajouté Thierry Martel.
Groupama a également indiqué que le groupe avait désormais renoncé à tout projet d'introduction en Bourse, qui avait été envisagé avant que la compagnie d'assurance ne soit touchée de plein fouet par la crise de la dette souveraine en Europe.

L'abandon du projet d'entrée en Bourse "est un principe acté par le conseil d'administration. Nous sommes une mutuelle", a insisté le président de Groupama. "Nous aurons demain les moyens de lever des capitaux par d'autres biais, comme les certificats mutualistes."
 
Domanda: cosa si intende (ultima frase) per certificati mutualistici? Si tratta in concreto di obbligazioni ibride o cosa? Cat, Rott?

Merci!

sì sono T1, un mezzo per attingere comunque al mercato dei capitali....non so però se la francia ha già recepito la normativa in materia di solvency 2
 
La cedola è facoltativa, se non ci saranno dividendi.
Tuttavia, a pagina 5-6 del press release che ho postato sta scritto che Groupama si impegna a pagare la cedola 2013 sui subordinati.
Direi che carta canta :D
vero è che groupama quando fa questa promessa distingue i 2 subordinati dalla 414 supersubordinated and accounted as equity instrument.:rolleyes:
 
Finalmente!!!

:yeah::yeah::yeah::yeah::yeah::yeah::yeah::yeah::y eah::yeah::yeah::yeah::yeah::yeah::yeah::yeah::yea h::yeah::yeah:

Moody's downgrades UK's government bond rating to Aa1 from Aaa; :up:outlook is now stable
:D

22 Feb 2013
London, 22 February 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the domestic- and foreign-currency government bond ratings of the United Kingdom by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa. The outlook on the ratings is now stable.:-R


The key interrelated drivers of today's action are::hua:
1. The continuing weakness in the UK's medium-term growth outlook, with a period of sluggish growth which Moody's now expects will extend into the second half of the decade;:)
2. The challenges that subdued medium-term growth prospects pose to the government's fiscal consolidation programme, which will now extend well into the next parliament;:lol:
3. And, as a consequence of the UK's high and rising debt burden, a deterioration in the shock-absorption capacity of the government's balance sheet, which is unlikely to reverse before 2016.:eek:
At the same time, Moody's explains that the UK's creditworthiness remains extremely high, rated at Aa1, because of the country's significant credit strengths. These include (i) a highly competitive, well-diversified economy; (ii) a strong track record of fiscal consolidation and a robust institutional structure; and (iii) a favourable debt structure, with supportive domestic demand for government debt, the longest average maturity structure (15 years) among all highly rated sovereigns globally and the resulting reduced interest rate risk on UK debt.:noo:


The stable outlook on the UK's Aa1 sovereign rating reflects Moody's expectation that a combination of political will and medium-term fundamental underlying economic strengths will, in time, allow the government to implement its fiscal consolidation plan and reverse the UK's debt trajectory. Moreover, although the UK's economy has considerable risk exposure through trade and financial linkages to a potential escalation in the euro area sovereign debt crisis, its contagion risk is mitigated by the flexibility afforded by the UK's independent monetary policy framework and sterling's global reserve currency status.
In a related rating action, Moody's has today also downgraded the ratings of the Bank of England to Aa1 from Aaa. The issuer's P-1 rating is unaffected by this rating action. The rating outlook for this entity is now also stable.:futuro:


RATINGS RATIONALE
The main driver underpinning Moody's decision to downgrade the UK's government bond rating to Aa1 is the increasing clarity that, despite considerable structural economic strengths, the UK's economic growth will remain sluggish over the next few years due to the anticipated slow growth of the global economy and the drag on the UK economy from the ongoing domestic public- and private-sector deleveraging process. Moody's says that the country's current economic recovery has already proven to be significantly slower -- and believes that it will likely remain so -- compared with the recovery observed after previous recessions, such as those of the 1970s, early 1980s and early 1990s. Moreover, while the government's recent Funding for Lending Scheme has the potential to support a surge in growth, Moody's believes the risks to the growth outlook remain skewed to the downside.;)
The sluggish growth environment in turn poses an increasing challenge to the government's fiscal consolidation efforts, which represents the second driver informing Moody's one-notch downgrade of the UK's sovereign rating. When Moody's changed the outlook on the UK's rating to negative in February 2012, the rating agency cited concerns over the increased uncertainty regarding the pace of fiscal consolidation due to materially weaker growth prospects, which contributed to higher than previously expected projections for the deficit, and consequently also an expected rise in the debt burden. Moody's now expects that the UK's gross general government debt level will peak at just over 96% of GDP in 2016. The rating agency says that it would have expected it to peak at a higher level if the government had not reduced its debt stock by transferring funds from the Asset Purchase Facility -- which will equal to roughly 3.7% of GDP in total -- as announced in November 2012.:down:
More specifically, projected tax revenue increases have been difficult to achieve in the UK due to the challenging economic environment. As a result, the weaker economic outturn has substantially slowed the anticipated pace of deficit and debt-to-GDP reduction, and is likely to continue to do so over the medium term. After it was elected in 2010, the government outlined a fiscal consolidation programme that would run through this parliament's five-year term and place the net public-sector debt-to-GDP ratio on a declining trajectory by the 2015-16 financial year. (Although it was not one of the government's targets, Moody's had expected the UK's gross general government debt -- a key debt metric in the rating agency's analysis -- to start declining in the 2014-15 financial year.) Now, however, the government has announced that fiscal consolidation will extend into the next parliament, which necessarily makes their implementation less certain.:rolleyes:
Taken together, the slower-than-expected recovery, the higher debt load and the policy uncertainties combine to form the third driver of today's rating action -- namely, the erosion of the shock-absorption capacity of the UK's balance sheet. Moody's believes that the mounting debt levels in a low-growth environment have impaired the sovereign's ability to contain and quickly reverse the impact of adverse economic or financial shocks. For example, given the pace of deficit and debt reduction that Moody's has observed since 2010, there is a risk that the UK government may not be able to reverse the debt trajectory before the next economic shock or cyclical downturn in the economy.
In summary, although the UK's debt-servicing capacity remains very strong and very capable of withstanding further adverse economic and financial shocks, it does not at present possess the extraordinary resilience common to other Aaa-rated issuers.:specchio:

RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook on the UK's Aa1 sovereign rating partly reflects the strengths that underpin the Aa1 rating itself -- the underlying economic strength and fiscal policy commitment which Moody's expects will ultimately allow the UK government to reverse the debt trajectory. The stable outlook is also an indication of the fact that Moody's does not expect further additional material deterioration in the UK's economic prospects or additional material difficulties in implementing fiscal consolidation. It also reflects the greater capacity of the UK government compared with its euro area peers to absorb shocks resulting from any further escalation in the euro area sovereign debt crisis, given (1) the absence of the contingent liabilities from mutual support mechanisms that euro area members face; (2) the UK's more limited trade dependence on the euro area; and (3) the policy flexibility that the UK derives from having its own national currency, which is a global reserve currency. Lastly, the UK also benefits from a considerably longer-than-average debt-maturity schedule, making the country's debt-servicing costs less vulnerable to swings in interest rates.:bow:

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATING UP/DOWN
As reflected by the stable rating outlook, Moody's does not anticipate any movement in the rating over the next 12-18 months. However, downward pressure on the rating could arise if government policies were unable to stabilise and begin to ease the UK's debt burden during the multi-year fiscal consolidation programme. Moody's could also downgrade the UK's government debt rating further in the event of an additional material deterioration in the country's economic prospects or reduced political commitment to fiscal consolidation.
Conversely, Moody's would consider changing the outlook on the UK's rating to positive, and ultimately upgrading the rating back to Aaa, in the event of much more rapid economic growth and debt-to-GDP reduction than Moody's is currently anticipating.:help:

COUNTRY CEILINGS
The UK's foreign- and local-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Aaa. The short-term foreign-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain Prime-1.:titanic:

IMPACT ON OTHER RATINGS
Moody's will assess the implications of this action for the debt obligations of other issuers which benefit from a guarantee from the UK sovereign, and will announce its conclusions shortly in accordance with EU regulatory requirements. Moody's does not consider that the one-notch downgrade of the UK sovereign has any implications for the standalone strength of UK financial institutions, or for the systemic support uplift factored into certain UK financial institutions' unguaranteed debt ratings.:no:

PREVIOUS RATING ACTION
Moody's previous action on the UK's sovereign rating and the Bank of England was implemented on 13 February 2012, when the rating agency changed the outlook on both Aaa ratings to negative from stable. For the UK sovereign, the actions prior to that were Moody's assignment of a Aaa rating to the UK's government bonds in March 1978 and the assignment of a stable outlook in March 1997. For the Bank of England, the action prior to the one from February 2012 was the assignment of a Aaa rating and stable outlook in March 2010.

:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::c lap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::cla p::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap: :clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:
 
Ultima modifica:
vero è che groupama quando fa questa promessa distingue i 2 subordinati dalla 414 supersubordinated and accounted as equity instrument.:rolleyes:

Ciao Fabri,

a) sulla 751 e sulla 464 la "promessa" della cedola è inutile : con un sm sopra al 150% è dovuta sulla 751 che spinge la 464 (vedi discussione Solenoide-Rottweiler). Quindi questo "impegno" per chi varrebbe se non per la 414 ?

b) nel grafico a pagina 14 della presentazione "colorata" vi è una raffigurazione dei 3 strumenti accomunati dallo stesso titolo "subordinated" ;

c) anche se mi limitassi a leggere le due righe a cui facciamo riferimento , mi sembra evidente che l'impegno è per l'intero debito subordinato ( oltretutto, se la garanzia, ridondante visto il punto a, fosse valsa solo per le prime due, ne avrebbe accennato prima di parlare della super-subordinata) ;

d) a ottobre Martel disse che lo skip (n.b. della sola 414) era un evento "one-off" . Appare evidente (IMHO) a chi sia diretto l' impegno, quest'anno, di pagare la cedola.


Detto questo : sperem.
 
Ultima modifica:
La rete è piena zeppa di questi pareri e consigli
Non esiste solo Grillo e il suo movimento per protestare civilmente e efficacemente!
Eccone un esempio:
Giudicate secondo coscienza...

Se votate scheda bianca o nulla perchè non vi sentite rappresentati da nessun partito, in realtà, favorirete il partito con più voti. Infatti (vedere REGOLAMENTI PER IL CALCOLO DEL PREMIO DI MAGGIORANZA) anche i voti bianchi o nulli entrano nel calcolo del premio di maggioranza, favorendo chi ha preso più voti. ESISTE UN'ARMA LEGALE CONTRO QUESTA LEGGE INDECENTE E ANTIDEMOCRATICA!Di seguito i riferimenti legali.Tutto si basa su un uso 'puntiglioso' della legge:Testo Unico delle Leggi Elettorali D.P.R. 30 marzo 1957, n. 361 - Art. 104 - Par. 55) Il segretario dell'Ufficio elettorale che rifiuta di inserire nel processo verbale odi allegarvi proteste o reclami di elettori è punito con la reclusione da sei mesi atre anni e con la multa sino a lire 4.000.000.Illustro nei dettagli il sistema da usare:

DIRITTO DI RIFIUTARE LA SCHEDA:

1) ANDARE A VOTARE, PRESENTARSI CON I DOCUMENTI + TESSERA ELETTORALE E FARSI VIDIMARE LA SCHEDA

2) NON TOCCARE LA SCHEDA(se si tocca la scheda viene contata come nulla e quindi rientra nel meccanismo del premio di maggioranza)E ESERCITARE IL DIRITTO DI RIFIUTARE LA SCHEDA (DOPO VIDIMATA), dicendo: 'Rifiuto la scheda per protesta, e chiedo che sia verbalizzato!'

3) PRETENDERE CHE VENGA VERBALIZZATO IL RIFIUTO DELLA SCHEDA

4) ESERCITARE IL PROPRIO DIRITTO DI AGGIUGERE, IN CALCE AL VERBALE, UN COMMENTO CHE GIUSTIFICHI IL RIFIUTO (ad esempio: 'Nessuno dei politici inseriti nelle liste mi rappresenta')(D.P.R. 30 marzo 1957, n. 361 - Art. 104)

COSì FACENDO NON VOTERETE, ED EVITERETE CHE IL VOTO,NULLO O BIANCO, SIA CONTEGGIATO COME QUOTA PREMIO PER IL PARTITO CON PIù VOTI!!

Art. 104

1. """"...........""""
2. """".......... """"
3. """".......... """"
5. Il segretario dell'Ufficio elettorale che rifiuta di inserire nel processo verbale o di allegarvi proteste o reclami di elettori è punito con la reclusione da sei mesi a tre anni e con la multa sino a lire 4.000.000.
6. """".......... """"
7.
"""".......... """"
QUESTA E' SOLO INFORMAZIONE, E' GIUSTO CHE QUALSIASI CITTADINO SAPPIA COSA PUO' E COSA NON PUO' FARE QUANDO VIENE CHIAMATO ALLE ELEZIONI. QUESTO MESSAGGIO NON HA LO SCOPO DI ISTIGARE NESSUNO, MA SEMPLICEMENTE DI INFORMARLO, OGNUNO E' LIBERO DI AGIRE COME MEGLIO CREDE.

Vi prego far girare:)
Quoto e ammetto la mia ignoranza su questa normativa, io preferirei votare Grillo ma consiglio ai renitenti di seguire le tue istruzioni, anche per verificare la preparazione dei presidenti di seggio.
 
Ciao Fabri,

a) sulla 751 e sulla 464 la "promessa" della cedola è inutile : con un sm sopra al 150% è dovuta sulla 751 che spinge la 464 (vedi discussione Solenoide-Rottweiler). Quindi questo "impegno" per chi varrebbe se non per la 414 ?

b) nel grafico a pagina 14 della presentazione "colorata" vi è una raffigurazione dei 3 strumenti accomunati dallo stesso titolo "subordinated" ;

c) anche se mi limitassi a leggere le due righe a cui facciamo riferimento , mi sembra evidente che l'impegno è per l'intero debito subordinato ( oltretutto, se la garanzia, ridondante visto il punto a, fosse valsa solo per le prime due, ne avrebbe accennato prima di parlare della super-subordinata) ;

d) a ottobre Martel disse che lo skip (n.b. della sola 414) era un evento "one-off" . Appare evidente (IMHO) a chi sia diretto l' impegno, quest'anno, di pagare la cedola.


Detto questo : sperem.
anch'io la vedo come te,speriamo di non sbagliarci
 
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