A me preoccupa il trend sui subordinati. L'Irlanda li vuole segare tutti cmq a zero (credo che si siano già portati a casa 17 bln dalle segate ai subordinati...). UK fa le OPA coercitive segando però tutti al prezzo di OPA. Dove stiamo andando?
L'Irlanda ha aperto una nuova strada, il caso Anglo fu erroneamente minimizzato e giudicato come storia a sé. A ben vedere in quel caso paurosamente più estremo furono quasi generosi, rispetto a quanto visto su Boi in particolare. Alle Lt2 offrirono 20, alle T1 5. Dopo Anglo la tecnica è stata azzerare come bere un bicchiere d'acqua. Non c'è assolutamente da dormire sonni tranquilli, a mio modesto avviso.
Un commento con una buona sintesi della situazione:
Minister considers SLO on junior bondholders
The Department of Finance has this morning indicated that it is considering the merits of applying an SLO (subordinated liabilities order) on BOI's junior bondholders. The SLO would write down the value of the securities (under the Credit Institutions (Stabilisation) Act 2010 by up to 100%. An SLO would immediately generate up to €350m of core tier 1 for the bank. The Minister is seeking written submissions by November 30 in which parties should give full details of their interest and any relevant information. No submissions after that will be accepted and the plan appears to be to complete by December 31 should the decision to proceed with an SLO be chosen.
Under PCAR 2011, the bank had an outstanding €0.35bn to raise under its €4.2bn target. However, with recent good news on de-leveraging, which incurred lower than forecast haircuts, it was likely it would make up this deficit elsewhere. As such, the SLO order is a surprise to us, notwithstanding the political ramifications of going after the bondholders.
Using PCAR base case loss assumptions, then we estimate that BOI will have a trough core tier 1 ratio of 14.7% (assuming c.€200m of gains for the securitisation offer announced earlier this week, and was 14.3% prior to that). However, an SLO has the potential to raise this by a further 60bps to 15.3%. The €350m would be a straight accrual to NAV, adding about 1.2c to NAV per share, implying an NAV around 22c.
In terms of valuation, the NAV boosted is helpful. However, with a potential core tier 1 trough of almost 15%, one seriously has to question the potential to deliver a sustainable ROE of 13%, which is what drives our current valuation metrics. For example, our forecasts are now starting to move towards just a 10% ROE by 2016, bearing in mind every 2% points move in ROE moves our 0.5x valuation multiple by 0.1x. With the bank already more than "adequately" capitalised under the PCAR base case, we begin to ponder the merits of the SLO and whether further capital generation is proving an interest dynamic in case we move to the "adverse" scenario under PCAR. Again, that risk must entail some impact on the valuation metric.
Goodbody - Wealth Management - Morning Wrap
