Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 2 (22 lettori)

[Mais78]

Quel burlone di Hussmann

Given the extremely high leverage ratios of European banks, it appears doubtful that it will be possible to obtain adequate capital through new share issuance, as they would essentially have to duplicate the existing float. For that reason, I suspect that before this is all over, much of the European banking system will be nationalized, much of the existing debt of the European banking system will be restructured, and those banks will gradually be recapitalized, post-restructuring and at much smaller leverage ratios, through new IPOs to the market. That's how to properly manage a restructuring - you keep what is essential to the economy, but you don't reward the existing stock and bondholders - it's essentially what we did with General Motors. That outcome is not something to be feared (unless you're a bank stockholder or bondholder), but is actually something that we should hope for if the global economy is to be unchained from the bad debts that were enabled by financial institutions that took on imponderably high levels of leverage.

Notably, credit default swaps are blowing out even in the U.S., despite leverage ratios that are substantially lower (in the 10-12 range, versus 30-40 in Europe). As of last week, CDS spreads on U.S. financials were approaching and in some cases exceeding 2009 levels. Bank stocks are also plumbing their 2009 depths, but with a striking degree of calm about it, and a definite tendency for scorching rallies on short-covering and "buy-the-dip" sentiment. There is a strong mood on Wall Street that we should take these developments in stride. I'm not convinced. Our own measures remain defensive about the prospective return/risk tradeoff in the stock market.

 

[claudioborghi]

Sono full invested, ma conterei di non reinvestire le cedole dei prox 12 mesi (sempre che ci riesca...)

Uguale, però io conto di reinvestire (o comperare quadri)

Se salta tutto non venite a consolarmi, io sono sempre contento

 

[camaleonte]

Buongiorno.

Bankitalia in campo, Eba in ritirata - Yahoo! Finanza

 

[negusneg]

Questi son pazzi, vogliono davvero mandare a put.tane il mercato...

EU Writedown Plan Puts Banks’ Long-Term Debt in Firing Line

By Jim Brunsden and Ben Moshinsky - Nov 30, 2011
Owners of long-term unsecured debt in a collapsing bank would be first in line to take losses under draft plans from the European Union to protect taxpayers’ money from future bailouts.
Short-term debt, with a less than one-year maturity, and derivatives should only be written down by regulators as a last resort if losses from longer-term debt aren’t “sufficient to restore the capital of the institution and enable it to operate as a going concern,” according to a draft European Commission proposal obtained by Bloomberg News.
“They are terrified of inadvertently killing off the interbank market,” Simon Gleeson, a financial services lawyer at Clifford Chance LLP in London, said in a telephone conversation. “This is a desperate attempt” to preserve it.
EU Financial Services Commissioner Michel Barnier had delayed proposing the law, which was originally scheduled to be released in September, because of market turbulence. TheBloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index (BEBANKS) has fallen 34.7 percent in the past year on concerns lenders have been weakened by the European sovereign debt crisis.
The commission may further delay publication of the measures until the start of next year to avoid them being unveiled at a time when they could add to volatility on financial markets, an EU official said earlier this month.
“The commission has to be very careful indeed at this critical phase of the economic cycle about adding further burdens on the ability of financial institutions to fund their operations,” said Richard Reid, research director for the International Centre for Financial Regulation.
Liquidity Supply

The EU plan would help “maintain the supply of liquidity and minimize the negative externalities on the interbank marketand derivatives market” in the event of the failure of a bank, according to the draft proposals.
Under the proposals, unsecured senior bondholders of banks would take losses only after a lender’s capital and then the rest of its subordinated debt had already been wiped out.
By imposing losses on long-term senior unsecured debt ahead of short-term debt and derivatives, the proposals go against the normal principle in insolvency law that creditors in the same class should be treated equally, according to the EU draft.
Banks would have to pay into national funds to help cover the costs of bank failure, under the measures. These funds should have financing equivalent to the higher of 1.5 percent of deposits that are guaranteed by law or 0.3 percent of banks’liabilities other than the “own funds of the institutions.”
‘Going Concern’

The euro area’s bail-out fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, could be used to top up these funds in exceptional circumstances, the draft says.
Banks that continue as a “going concern” after losses are imposed on their creditors should be forced to replace their management and restructure, according to the draft rules.
Banks will have to hold minimum amounts of longer-term funding to prevent them from exploiting the commission’s plan to shield short-term debt from writedowns.
Lenders should be forced at all times to hold funding “with an original maturity of at least one year” equivalent to a minimum of 10 percent of their liabilities, according to the document.
The U.K.’s Independent Commission on Banking, led by John Vickers, had similar ideas for financial stability, Bob Penn, a lawyer at Allen & Overy LLP, said in a telephone interview in London.
Vickers Report

“This is going in the same direction as Vickers,” Penn said. “Ten percent sounds like a similar measure to the primary loss-absorbing capacity in Vickers.”
The draft proposal exempts secured liabilities, as well as so-called repos and other liabilities secured by collateral, from the debt-writedown measures.
Bonuses aren’t protected under the plan and may be clawed back to shore up bank capital, according to the draft.
“That idea is new,” Gleeson said. “What it may do is accelerate the shift in bankers’ pay from bonus to salary.”
The proposals also include requirements for banks to draw up so-called living wills showing how they could be wound down if they fail.
Living Wills

Regulators would have the right to impose “changes to legal or operational structures” at banks to ensure their living wills could be executed, the draft says.
Lenders that fail to make living wills and agree on their content with national regulators may face fines of as much as 10 percent of their annual revenue, the draft says. Banks may also be punished for failing to alert regulators that they are close to collapse.
Separately, EU nations said last month that they will temporarily guarantee lenders’ bond issuance in order to open up the bank-lending market.
Temporarily protecting creditors from losses “would help banks continue their lending activities in 2012,” the European Banking Authority said on Oct. 26 “Banks may find it difficult to address their funding needs” next year without support, the EBA said.
A spokeswoman for the commission in Brussels declined to comment.
To contact the reporters on this story: Jim Brunsden in Brussels at [email protected]; Ben Moshinsky in London at [email protected].

 

[fabrifede]

a me risulta che la banca fosse deutsche bank
si sa da tempo che db ha un bilancio incasinato per enorme quantita cds swap e quant altro

Se fosse DB credo che vedremmo i crucchi ammorbidirsi molto per quel che riguarda stampare moneta fresca.
Staremo a vedere, non manca molto all'8 e 9 dicembre. Sapremo di che morte dovremo......

 

[Dupondius]

By imposing losses on long-term senior unsecured debt ahead of short-term debt and derivatives, the proposals go against the normal principle in insolvency law that creditors in the same class should be treated equally, according to the EU draft.

bene, oggi accendo il fuoco con il manuale di fallimentare.

derivatives über alles

 

[stordits]

ieri ne ho comprate poca roba

hai fatto un aumento di capitale affermando che i soldi sarebbero serviti a rimborsare tier1
alla prima call (2010) hai inventato un meccanismo per prendere tempo aumentando cedola non piu fissa ma variabile
adesso unica banca parli di nuovi meccanismi
bene il fatto e che se comunque devi ammortizzare ogni anno perdi capitale
oggi la carta di ubi non vale piu nulla essendo banca italiana
puoi solo sperare che sia il tuo retail a comprare
hai visto i volumi della bergamo
non ci sono
tutta la carta e nelle filiali

in merito alla data ir di ubi ha precisato in sede di confernce call che ai primi dicembre escono nuovi stress test
poi eba valuta situazione banca e possibili interventi

se i numeri sono ok hai spazio per richiamare o cash o con senior
se numeri sono brutti devi o fare aum cap in borsa, o emettere nuovo prestito o inventarti qualcosa

io son convinto, e molti altri la pensano come me, che questi 400 mln saranno richiamati entro fine anno

se c e carta sono pronto ad acquistare anche parecchia roba
problema e che la bergamo non scambia proprio perche e quasi tutta in mani forti
tra l altro son convinto che il prezzo e tenuto artificiosamente basso perche mani forti sperano rastrellare su panic selling di qaulcuno

oggi erano valorizzate a 58 ma appena chiesto al market maker un ask per un grosso importo mi ha detto che dovevo pagarle 69 perche non c era carta

58-69

di comind e lombarda a 55 morgan stanley e' stato il venditore

oggi lo vedo ancora in pagina ms ad offrire a 57

che io sappia jpm a 59/60 dovrebbe essere operativo fino a un mio sulla lombarda

E COMUNQUE VEDERE IL TITOLO ROMPERE I 3 AL RIALZO MI FA BEN SPERARE

 

[Wallygo]

a me risulta che la banca fosse deutsche bank
si sa da tempo che db ha un bilancio incasinato per enorme quantita cds swap e quant altro

non credo proprio.... (sempre saputo che DB è inattaccabile )

S&P ha tagliato il rating di 37 banche nel mondo

30/11/2011 Standard & Poor’s ha tagliato il rating di 37 banche a livello globale, compresi i sette maggiori istituti americani. Una mossa che era ampiamente attesa da quando, all’inizio di novembre, l’agenzia aveva annunciato un cambiamento dei criteri di valutazione per meglio riflettere il legame tra la capacità di credito di una banca e l’economia in cui opera. Immuni le italiane Intesa Sanpaolo e Unicredit, come la tedesca Deutsche Bank.

 

[Wallygo]

Buongiorno.

Bankitalia in campo, Eba in ritirata - Yahoo! Finanza

ottima notizia !!!!

me la aspettavo... le richieste dell EBA sono un costo inaccettabile per le nostre banche italiane ...ora se questo costo viene ridotto o eliminato = maggiori disponibilità per pagare future cedole

 

[pier_pat]

bene, oggi accendo il fuoco con il manuale di fallimentare.

derivatives über alles

OT

proprio come Pepe Carvalho...