solovaloreaggiunto
Forumer storico
Oggi scambiate le ucg 2035 steepener a 98 su lux exch... I 100 sono li..
Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3
- Creatore Discussione Joe Silver
- Data di Inizio
solovaloreaggiunto
Forumer storico
Top le banesto oggi non le davano i mm... Sono riuscito a 84, poi neanche a 86...
fidw99
100% perpetual
Segnalo Euribor 3m a 0,230. Massimo da febbraio.
Tutto scende e lui salicchia .
dopo l'uscita dei dati sull'inflazione sono tornato di nuovo short su bund, il tapering prima o poi arriva... forse prima che poi
e i tassi non hanno alternativa a salire da questi minimi
mac
Forumer storico
So Euronext è molto più liquida
apaci2
Ad bestias
Ma in che cosa ti stai impelagando
Ci daresti qualche info in più
o chiedo troppo
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
dopo l'uscita dei dati sull'inflazione sono tornato di nuovo short su bund, il tapering prima o poi arriva... forse prima che poi
JPM ha giocato il Jolly : dice che a Dicembre Draghi porterà il tasso allo 0,25%.
Inflation fell much more than expected in October
-- We now think the ECB will cut its main refinancing rate to 0.25% at the December meeting
Euro area HICP inflation fell three tenths to just 0.7%oya. Food and energy price inflation contributed to the surprise but the big news was core inflation, which slid two tenths to just 0.8%oya. Our expectation was that core inflation would be supported by the Italian VAT hike in October. But, Italian inflation actually fell sharply as well, likely because retailers were unable to pass on the VAT hike due to the low level of demand. But, even with the five tenth surprise on Italian inflation (relative to our forecast), there is another big part of the surprise that came from other countries. Yesterday, we already noted that German and Spanish inflation had slowed more than expected (although in Germany this may not have been due to core). Other countries must have slowed as well. Overall, details are still scarce, but there is little to suggest so far that there was a special factor that will unwind again next month.
Today's surprise raises very big questions about the outlook for inflation and about the ECB's response. On the first, we published an ECB-style Phillips curve earlier this week, which suggested that the ECB may revise down its inflation forecast for 2014 and predict only 1.3%oya for 2015. The forecast in this framework is driven by three main variables: the output gap, inflation expectations and the starting level of inflation. Even if the ECB's assessment of the first two are unaffected by today's surprise, the starting level is much lower. Inflation would still rise gradually over time, but it would do so from a lower level. Hence, a downward revision of inflation to 1.0%oya in 2014 and 1.2%oya in 2015 would be possible based on the Phillips Curve. And this assumes that inflation expectations remain firmly anchored at 2% and that today's inflation surprise does not lead to reassessments about the size of the output gap. If they do, then inflation could be even lower.
We noted at the start of the year, that the ECB has become unusually tolerant of low inflation, even by its own standards. This has never been explained, but likely reflects the constraint of the zero lower bound constraint on rates and a desire to keep bullets, and the moral hazard created by nonstandard measures. With inflation so low, the argument for inaction is becoming more stretched however. There have already been some at the ECB who have argued that inflation has become too low and that this makes the adjustment harder in the periphery. Their argument will have been strengthened by today's data and by the recent currency appreciation.
We suspect the ECB will stick to verbal intervention next week, which will give more time to assess the final HICP report in two weeks' time and see whether the PMIs recover from October's setback. But, we now think that a cut of the refinancing rate (from 0.5% to 0.25%) will likely be delivered at the December meeting, alongside the new staff forecasts. There are other options as well, such as a negative deposit rate and another LTRO. But, the refi cut is the simplest option in the near-term. Draghi will lay the ground work for this at next week's meeting.
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Rottweiler
Forumer storico
dopo l'uscita dei dati sull'inflazione sono tornato di nuovo short su bund, il tapering prima o poi arriva... forse prima che poi
Sbaglio o Fidw e JPM hanno una view discordante?
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
Sbaglio o Fidw e JPM hanno una view discordante?
JPM , penso che in questo Fid convenga, ha iniziato a shortare il t bond sotto 2,49 (io lo shortavo anche a 2,87
).Io il Bund lo lascio stare, per il resto sono eterodiretto : se JPM mi dice compra io compro, se mi dice vendi ...vendo .
Se va bene son contento e mi dico bravo , altrimenti so a chi dar la colpa.
Non comprendo l'Euribor 3m da alcuni giorni, spero che Feroli mi illumini.
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fabrifede
Forumer storico
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