Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3
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Moody's su Raiffeisen:
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moo...ffeisen-Banking-Group-member-banks--PR_315494
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moo...ffeisen-Banking-Group-member-banks--PR_315494
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Rating Action: Moody's downgrades several Austrian Raiffeisen Banking Group member banks
Global Credit Research - 23 Dec 2014
Places long-term ratings on review for downgrade
Frankfurt am Main, December 23, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has today taken a number of rating actions on the long- and short-term debt and deposit ratings of eight banks that are part of the Austrian Raiffeisen Banking Group (RBG or 'the Group'; unrated). These actions reflect the rating agency's assessment of materially increased risks to the earnings and capital of Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI) and the entire Group, due to RBI's large Russian banking activities.
The rating actions were prompted by a significant deterioration in the operating environment for Russian banking activities, following the sharp depreciation of the rouble and a substantial key interest rate increase to 17.0% (from 10.5%) by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) on 16 December 2014. The adverse change in the operating environment has significant negative implications for the capitalisation and earnings power of RBI, and, because of its importance to RBG, also reduces the Group's ability to provide support for its member banks. In addition, Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG's (RZB, the parent company of RBI) owners are affected by the recent developments in Russia as they reduce RBI's value and its ability to pay dividends to its shareholders.
The following rating actions have been taken:
- One-notch downgrade of the long-term ratings of four banks and the subsequent placement of these ratings on review for further downgrade. The related short-term debt and deposit ratings of those banks were also placed on review for downgrade.
- Placement of the long-term ratings of four banks on review for downgrade. The related short-term ratings of those banks were affirmed.
- One-notch downgrade of the subordinated debt ratings of three banks and the hybrid debt ratings of RZB's issuing entities. These ratings were subsequently placed on review for further downgrade.
- One-notch downgrade of RBI's standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR) to D from D+, and the subsequent placement on review for further downgrade.
- Placement of the standalone BFSRs of six Raiffeisen Landesbanks (RLBs) on review for downgrade.
During the review period, the rating agency will examine to what extent potential measures by RBI mitigate the risks related to Russian exposures and also re-assess the Group's ability and willingness to extend capital support to all of its members, including RBI, in an adverse scenario.
Please click on this link http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_178395 for the List of Affected Credit Ratings. This list is an integral part of this press release and identifies each affected issuer.
RATINGS RATIONALE
---RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG AND RAIFFEISEN ZENTRALBANK OESTERREICH AG
Moody's decision to downgrade RBI's standalone BFSR to D from D+ (equivalent to a baseline credit assessment (BCA) of ba2 from ba1) and place it on review for further downgrade reflects the expected negative impact on RBI's capital ratios and its earnings as a result of the devaluation of the rouble. Because of the significant decline in the Russian rouble in recent weeks, Moody's expects a decline in the bank's common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio to below 10% at year-end 2014. The rouble devaluation will also result in significantly lower earnings contribution (denominated in euros) from the bank's Russian banking activities, which is a major contributor to RBI's profits.
Moody's expects that the rise in risks, as a result of recent pronounced rouble devaluation, interest rate increase and ongoing volatility in the domestic Russian operating environment, may be substantial, considering the expected pressure on capital ratios, the rise in system-wide funding costs and deteriorating local funding conditions, and the prospect of a significant rise in credit risk in the bank's lending activities. During the review, Moody's will assess the extent to which management actions can alleviate the pressure on RBI's capital ratios and earnings retention potential.
The one-notch downgrade of RBI's long-term debt and deposits ratings to Baa1 from A3 follows the lowering of the bank's standalone BCA to ba2 from ba1. The review for downgrade on RBI's long- and short-term ratings follows the review for downgrade on its standalone D BFSR.
The one-notch downgrade of RZB's long-term deposit and issuer ratings to Baa2 from Baa1 follows the downgrade of RBI's long-term ratings. RZB's long-term ratings reflect RBI's ratings and incorporate the structural subordination of the senior obligations of the parent company RZB to those of its major operating entity, RBI. The review for downgrade on RZB's long- and short-term ratings follows the review for downgrade on RBI's long-term ratings.
--- RE-ASSESSMENT OF GROUP SUPPORT UPLIFT DURING REVIEW PERIOD
During the review for downgrade, Moody's will also re-assess RBG's ability and willingness to provide capital support to all of its Group members, including RBI, in an adverse scenario. Moody's considers the Group's capitalisation as moderate relative to RBG's overall credit profile, which is focused on, and therefore strongly correlated with its higher-risk Central and Eastern European (CEE) operations housed at RBI. Higher capital would be required to protect RBG against likely losses under an adverse scenario.
The long-term ratings of all affected entities incorporate the rating agency's continued assumption of RBG's very high willingness to provide support to its members. However, Moody's believes that the Group's capability to provide such support, in case of need, remains limited and gets pressured by RBI's weakening standalone credit profile, which exposes the Group to significant and rising tail risks.
--- RAIFFEISENLANDESBANK NIEDEROESTERREICH-WIEN, RAIFFEISENLANDESBANK OBEROESTERREICH AG, RAIFFEISENVERBAND SALZBURG, RAIFFEISEN-LANDESBANK STEIERMARK AG, RAIFFEISEN-LANDESBANK TIROL AG AND RAIFFEISENLANDESBANK VORARLBERG
The downgrade to Baa1 from A3 of the long-term ratings of Raiffeisenlandesbank Oberoesterreich AG (RLB OOe) and Raiffeisenlandesbank Niederoesterreich-Wien (RLB NOe) reflects Moody's assessment of RBG's weakening credit profile. RLB OOe's long-term ratings continue to benefit from one notch of sector support uplift. Moody's unchanged assessment of very high group support (in case of need) no longer contributes any uplift for long-term ratings of the other five RLBs.
Furthermore, Moody's placed on review for downgrade the long-term ratings and the standalone BFSRs of all six RLBs, reflecting the potential influence of RBG's weakening creditworthiness on the banks' standalone credit profiles, because of the operational and financial interdependencies between the banks and the Group. Additionally, RZB's dividends represent an important profit driver for most RLBs. Any reduced profitability at RZB, the Group's central institution, might impair the RLBs' capital generation capacity, while valuation effects may further negatively affect their capitalisation levels.
During the review period, Moody's will also assess the impact of deteriorating financial strength of both the Group and its central institutions on the RLBs' standalone credit profiles; for RLB OOe, the review includes the potential implication of lower sector support uplift.
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN
Rating upgrades for entities of RBG are unlikely over the near term, reflecting the pressure on RBI's standalone credit strength and the negative implications this has on the overall creditworthiness of RBG and its rated entities.
A downgrade to RBI's long-term ratings could result from (1) a weakening of RBI's intrinsic financial strength; (2) the lack of a credible credit strengthening plan for the 'Raiffeisen' sector in Austria and the potential impact on RBI; and/or (3) a decline in the prospects for systemic support in Austria and in the EU, in light of developments associated with resolution mechanisms and burden-sharing for European banks.
Downward pressure on RBI's BFSR could develop if Moody's were to assess (1) a reduced financial strength of that entity, for example as a result of further deterioration in its Russian and Ukrainian activities; (2) substantial additional credit charges beyond those Moody's currently expects; (3) an extended period of declining earnings and internal capital generation; and/or (4) a decline in capitalisation and regulatory capital.
A downgrade to RZB's long-term ratings could result from a downgrade of RBI's long-term ratings. In addition, wider notching between the ratings of RZB and RBI could result from (1) any incidence of double leverage at the holding company; and/or (2) a multi-notch downgrade or series of downgrades to RBI's ratings.
A downgrade to the RLBs' long-term ratings could result from (1) a weakening of their intrinsic financial strength; (2) lower sector support; and/or (3) a decline in the prospects for systemic support in Austria and in the EU, in light of developments associated with resolution mechanisms and burden-sharing for European banks.
Downward pressure on the RLBs' standalone BFSRs could develop due to (1) a reduced financial strength of the entities, for example as a result of an extended period of declining earnings and internal capital generation; (2) a decline in capitalisation and regulatory capital; and/or (3) the adverse impact of a weaker RBG credit profile.
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