Svelato il motivo per cui JPM da giorni era sempre (di alcune spanne) il miglio denaro su Raiffeisen.
Prosegue l'innamoramento (tp alzato da 18 a 21)
Raiffeisen Bank International Overweight
Organic capital rebuild in progress, increase PT to €21
(€18), ~50% upside, some patience required ▲
Price: €14.00
Price Target: €21.00
Previous: €18.00
Price Target (€) 21.00
Price Target End Date 31-Dec-16
52-week Range (€) 18.50-8.81
Market Cap (€ bn) 4.10
Shares O/S (mn) 293
See page 24 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
Price Performance
We believe RBI’s shares remain undervalued, based on our forecasts, at 17E
0.5x P/NAV, 5.0x P/E, 1.9x P/PPP and offer further ~50% potential upside at
our Dec-16 PT of €21, or >100% under a blue sky scenario over a 2-year
horizon, assuming successful execution of the credible restructuring plan.
PT upgraded to €21 (€18), ~50% upside: Following the Analyst Dinner
with the CEO and CFO, we remain constructive (see our upgrade note) and
increase 2015-17E EPS forecasts by 32%/16%/8%, while introducing 18E
EPS of €3.60. Restructuring, including disposal of less profitable non-core
businesses (e.g., Poland, Slovenia), and on-going business simplification is
likely to drive RoNAV increase to 12.3% by 18E and PT to our blue sky
scenario of €31, offering >100% potential upside through Dec-17.
Despite the 24% share price increase in the last 4 weeks, valuation still
appears attractive at 17-18E P/NAV of 0.50x-0.45x, P/E of 5.0x-3.9x. At
our new PT of €21, RBI’s shares would trade at a still undemanding 0.76x-
0.68x P/NAV, 7.5x-5.8x P/E; while at our blue sky scenario PT of €31, the
valuation would be ~1.0x P/NAV in 18E.