Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3
- Creatore Discussione Joe Silver
- Data di Inizio
Ventodivino
מגן ולא יראה
Dai minimi di inizio febbraio (denaro a 78, lettera a 78,75) si è già fatta un + 12 %.
Personalmente ho già switchato dalla T1 (che oggi è tornata a lambire i 100) a questa T2.
Ci sono state giornate di illiquidità pressochè totale sulla T1.
Prossima settimana escono i conti.
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ferdo
Utente Senior
Nessun matto.
Per poter usare un super bazooka bisogna dire che le cose non funzionano come si vorrebbe (altrimenti MD non avrebbe avuto la maggioranza necessitata in Consiglio per poter usare la super arma).
Se la Borsa guarda il bazooka sale, se guarda le motivazioni addotte per utilizzarlo scende.
Devo ammetterere che nonostante tutto il super rafforzamento del dollaro non mi è chiarissimo...
Detto questo, la politica monetaria da sempre ha un corto respiro, aver delegato tutto allo stampaggio e a San MD è pericoloso.
La politica monetaria non può far tanto, è la politica fiscale (in carico ai Governi) l'unico vero strumento che può far da volano all'economia.
All incirca La stessa cosa detta da radio24 barisoni (fino alle 18:30)
russiabond
Il mito, la leggenda.
area 89 ne avevo fatto prendere un lotto a mio padre ...cassettista ...interessato a cedolare
apaci2
Ad bestias
In passato abbiamo già visto un mercato schizofrenico nell'interpretare le decisioni di Draghi, ma quello che abbiamo visto oggi supera ogni immaginazione.
Se poi leggo le "spiegazioni" che vengono date, mi convinco sempre più che la "grande finanza" sia una sorta di mega-gabbia di matti...
Naturalmente è possibilissimo che l'unico matto sia io...
Sottoscrivo... S&P era tornata bella alta e vuole scendere.
Inutile trovare giustificazione, del tutto insensato. Poi se le danno i tizi che non hanno neanche letto lo statement di MD.
Una roba così ancora mi mancava... Bei soldini andati. Domani vediamo che fare.
Ventodivino
מגן ולא יראה
Io lo statement non l'ho letto.
Ma ho sentito con le mie orecchie (non so se nello statement verrà messo in inglese) il "nein zu allen" ( o "allem", il tedesco non lo conosco)
Non mi è piaciuto proprio per niente, fa trasparire un misto di nervosismo-paura-voglia di prendersi delle rivincite.
Fossi stato un trader di breve sull'azionario avrei spinto il bottone SELL.
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apaci2
Ad bestias
Io lo statement non l'ho letto.
Ma ho sentito con le mie orecchie (non so se nello statement verrà messo in inglese) il "nein zu allen".
Non mi è piaciuto proprio per niente, fa trasparire un misto di nervosismo-paura-voglia di prendersi delle rivincite.
Fossi stato un trader di breve sull'azionario avrei spinto il bottone SELL.
Se nella realtà contano più le parole dei fatti, ha ragione il mercato.
A questo punto eliminiamo la conference e pure la ECB.
Ventodivino
מגן ולא יראה
I fatti rappresentati da Draghi (con i quali ha giustificato le nuove misure) non mi sembrano così esaltanti.
Dipende tutto se guardi il bazooka o le ragioni per le quali viene usato (cioè "i fatti")
Domani riguarderanno il bazooka e sarai meno incacchiato...
Essendo flattissimo di azionario e tassi sono serafico.
Ho già dato.
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Joe Silver
Forumer storico
Mah...
Non ti offendere, ma devo ammettere che non ho capito dove sia il rafforzamento del dollaro (e pure super)
Nessun matto.
Devo ammetterere che nonostante tutto il super rafforzamento del dollaro non mi è chiarissimo...
.
Non ti offendere, ma devo ammettere che non ho capito dove sia il rafforzamento del dollaro (e pure super)
Ventodivino
מגן ולא יראה
Non ti offendere, ma devo ammettere che non ho capito dove sia il rafforzamento del dollaro (e pure super)
Non ti offendere, ma mi sembrava evidente che fosse un paradosso (avevo messo la paperella). (super)
ECB: a good package but a weak message
The stakes were high at today’s ECB meeting, given the disappointment in December and the questions being asked by markets about the efficacy and limits of further monetary policy easing. Our expectation was that the ECB would deliver a solid package today to reaffirm its commitment to its inflation target and that it would push back against suggestions that it has run out of tools. The mix of decisions taken by the ECB was different to what we had expected but the package was nevertheless a solid one, in our view. Unfortunately, the forward-looking signal was disappointing, given that the ECB is accepting a significant inflation undershoot and given that Draghi indicated a high hurdle for further cuts of the deposit rate.
In terms of today’s decisions, the ECB cut its main refi rate 5bp to 0% and its deposit rate by 10bp to -0.3%. On QE, the ECB raised the monthly pace by €20bn/month to €80bn/month and it added investment-grade nonfinancial corporate bonds to the programme. It also made one modality change, raising the issue/issuer limits from 33% to 50% for securities issued by eligible international organisations and multilateral development banks. Finally, the ECB will offer four additional TLTROs at very easy conditions. Banks will be able to borrow up to 30% of their eligible loan books for four years. The TLTROs are offered at a fixed rate which is set at refi rate (currently at 0%), but if a bank exceeds a net lending benchmark the rate interest rate will fall as low as the deposit rate. In addition, there is no requirement to repay the funds early if the net lending benchmark is not achieved and banks are also given the opportunity to switch their borrowings under the original TLTROs to the new operations.
In terms of QE and the TLTROs, the ECB demonstrated an ability to move in a significant and innovative way. It surprised by adding in nonfinancial corporate bonds and by raising the monthly QE purchase pace by more than expected. And even though the duration of the QE programme was not extended, it is clear that this can be done later if inflation disappoints. Similarly, we think that other QE modalities, such as the deposit rate floor, can be changed later, if needed. The ECB felt little pressure to do so today as it thinks that it has enough bonds to buy within the current programme constraints. Finally, we think that the conditions of the TLTROs look good, with very generous conditions and virtually no strings attached.
Where the ECB disappointed was on the forward-looking signal on rates and on its inflation target. On rates, it cut the deposit rate by less than we thought and it did not signal the imminent implementation of a tiered deposit rate system. In fact, it turned the argument for a tiered system on its head, saying that it did not want to encourage expectations of bigger rate cuts. Draghi also said firmly that the ECB did not expect rates to be cut again, unless the outlook changes. Clearly, concerns about bank profitability and about side-effects are acting as a constraint. This is disappointing as the ECB could have added a different spin, emphasizing that a tiered deposit rate system limits the direct cost to banks and that the TLTROs help banks even further by providing very cheap funding. In our view, the ECB may end up revisiting the question of rate cuts again at some point, if it finds that today’s deposit rate cut to -0.4% does not end up having a damaging effect. But, if it does end up cutting rates again, it will not do so quickly.
As in December, we believe the ECB spoilt its policy message further by describing the latest package as “adequate” even though the package will not reverse the projected inflation undershoot. In fact, the ECB staff cut its inflation forecast by even more than we thought in 2017, with core inflation at just 1.3%oya (from 1.6%oya in December). In recent speeches, Draghi had elevated this 2017 forecast to a credibility test for the central bank and has now seemingly given up on it. And the new forecast for 2018 does not make things better as the staff expect core inflation at just 1.6%oya. Before the December meeting, we though the ECB’s inflation target was 1.8-1.9%oya. After the December meeting, we thought it was 1.6-1.8%oya. After today, it looks as if it is 1.5-1.6%oya. This is clearly not a good trend.
What happens next? In some sense, the ECB is responding quickly to downside surprises. In December, it presented an “adequate” package, only to signal further easing in the following month. This can easily happen again. It does, however, require further turmoil in markets or a growth wobble. Based on our macro forecast, our inclination is to think that the ECB will eventually extend QE further (close to the end of 2017) but that it may not announce this until later this year (September of December). It may also announce additional TLTROs at that point. But, even though the door to further deposit rate cuts is not closed entirely, the hurdle seems high and we now expect no further cuts.
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