Da una breve nota di Exane:
- Insurance sector: the European insurance regulator (EIOPA) revealed details for the 2016 Stress Test which will be published in December. In particular, the “Low for Long” scenario is based on the 20-Apr 2015 curve, an UFR at 2% instead of 4.2%.
The Low for Long scenario seems close to current conditions and much tougher than the S2 curve, particularly for Euro-area life insurers with long-term guarantees.
Double hit scenario:; what are the key details ?
. Shock on EUR-swap: -61bp for 7-20y maturity (but no change in UFR)
. Shock on sovereign yields: +121bps for European Union at 10y maturity
. Shock on corporate credit: +135bp for A-rated and +214bp for BBB non financials
. Shock on equities: -33.4% for the European Union
. Shock on commodities: -16% for Global and -7% for EU
. Shock on residential property: -7% for EU
. Shock on commercial property: -6% for EU
Conclusions: results will be given before Christmas and will include the disclosure of the capital position of the sector (not name by name but aggregated results). Not really the kind of gift you were expecting...