Banco Popular €2.5 Billion Capital Increase Is Credit Positive
Last Wednesday, Banco Popular Español, S.A.’s (Ba1 stable, b16 ) board of directors approved a €2.5 billion capital increase. The increase is credit positive because it will strengthen the bank’s loss-absorbing capacity against its high level of problematic exposures. The capital increase, which has been fully underwritten, aims to fully offset the negative effect on the bank’s solvency of €4.7 billion in provisions that the bank expects to book in the current year and which will lead to sizable losses. At nearly 30%, Banco Popular’s year-end 2015 level of nonperforming assets (NPAs), defined as nonperforming loans (NPLs) and real estate assets, materially exceeded the system average of 17%. Additionally, when aggregating refinanced loans, which are not already captured in the bank’s NPL ratio, Banco Popular’s overall NPA ratio increases to 35.8%, versus a system average of 24.5%, indicating the magnitude of the challenges facing the bank’s balance sheet. The bank expects that its fully loaded common equity Tier 1 capital ratio (CET1) after the capital raise will exceed 10.8% at the end of 2016, broadly in line with the level reported at the end of March 2016. The bank’s expected provisions are more than 3x those booked in 2015. They will materially reduce the ratio of Banco Popular’s high stock of problematic exposures (defined as NPAs plus performing restructured loans) to balance-sheet cushions (loan-loss reserves, real estate reserves and shareholder’s equity) to 135% from 160% currently. As the exhibit below shows, the new ratio is more in line with the average of the bank’s domestic peers. Greater risk-absorption capacity would put the bank on a more solid footing and enable it to off-load its problematic exposures and reach its goal of reducing those exposures by €15 billion over the next three years.
Because of the magnitude of the expected provisions, Banco Popular will report a sizable loss in 2016, but stronger coverage levels in the future should aid the bank’s modest recurrent bottom-line profitability, which has been reduced by high credit costs over the past few years.