Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3

[negusneg]

Ho appena aggiornato il file.

 

[Fabrib]

Aegon : N.V. Divests Final Block of U.S. Life Reinsurance Business | 4-Traders

 

[Cat XL]

Vedo che i bond Garanti scendono ancora assestandosi su un prezzo di 75...76 circa.

Azione invece tonica sopra 7 fa oltre 3%.

Starei alla lontana su questi LT2 almeno fino a che la situazione non si stabilizzi con il rischio di prenderli piu' alti.

I commenti che ho ascoltato in questi giorni sulla Turchia sono solo e soltanto negativi. Un tipo di BlueBay (hedge fund) ha detto che li considerebbe solo a 60 o giu di li...

 

[ferdo]

Starei alla lontana su questi LT2 almeno fino a che la situazione non si stabilizzi con il rischio di prenderli piu' alti.

I commenti che ho ascoltato in questi giorni sulla Turchia sono solo e soltanto negativi. Un tipo di BlueBay (hedge fund) ha detto che li considerebbe solo a 60 o giu di li...

C è qualche forma di bailin o similare ?

 

[Cat XL]

Domanda per Rott.

Una banca come Carige con PN positivo come puo' essere risoluta?

Rating Action:
Moody's downgrades Banca Carige S.p.A. and places ratings under review for downgrade

07 Aug 2018
London, 07 August 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") downgraded the baseline credit assessment (BCA) of Banca Carige S.p.A. (Carige) to caa2 from caa1, its long-term issuer rating to Caa3 from Caa2 and its long-term deposit rating to Caa1 from B3. Moody's also placed all of Carige's long-term ratings and assessments under review for further downgrade. The ratings were downgraded in light of the recent corporate governance tensions which in Moody's view are an impediment to the bank's effective restructuring. The downgrade and review for further downgrade also reflect the heightened risk that Carige could be placed in resolution following the European Central Bank's rejection of the bank's capital conservation plan (CCP). The long-term counterparty risk ratings (CRRs) were downgraded by two notches to B3 and placed on review for further downgrade. This follows the downgrade of the BCA and also corrects a prior error.

 

[Cat XL]

C è qualche forma di bailin o similare ?

Siamo in Turchia non in Europa. Bisognerebbe vedere la loro legislazione. Francamente non saprei.

 

[Ventodivino]

C è qualche forma di bailin o similare ?

Quando all'inizio dell'estate mi feci titillare da un eventuale ingresso sulle sub. guardai velocemente queste cose.
Non escludo ci sia dell'altro (di migliore) o che siano obsolete.
Sono fuori, permango fuori (dalle banche), quindi non vado oltre.

Se i senior bancari scendessero valuterei ingresso , o se i TDS in $ ritracciassero accumulerei.

PS
Non consiglio ASSOLUTAMENTE di entrare su questi strumenti se non con la consapevolezza che NESSUNO REGALA NIENTE:

 

[Cat XL]

Quando all'inizio dell'estate mi feci titillare da un eventuale ingresso sulle sub. guardai velocemente queste cose.
Non escludo ci sia dell'altro o che siano obsolete.
Sono fuori, permango fuori (dalle banche), quindi non vado oltre.

Se i senior bancari scendessero valuterei ingresso , o se i TDS in $ ritracciassero accumulerei.

PS
Non consiglio ASSOLUTAMENTE di entrare su questi strumenti se non con la consapevolezza che NESSUNO REGALA NIENTE:

Solo Vento in una sera di mezza estate ci poteva aggiornare sul regime del bail-in turco...grazie.

 

[darkog]

A me sembra molto simile alla storia di raiffaisen nel momento della crisi russa.

Ho dato un occhio ai numeri della banca turca, partecipata al 50% da BBVA, se sono veri nn so come possa saltare.
Avete almeno visto quanto capitalizza?

 

[Ventodivino]

Ho dato un occhio ai numeri della banca turca, partecipata al 50% da BBVA, se sono veri nn so come possa saltare.
Avete almeno visto quanto capitalizza?

OT

Premesso che io seguo le prime 4 banche e non solo Garanti (per farsi un'ideea del singolo, meglio guardare al gruppo), questi sono gli ultimi numeri di Garanti.

 Garanti revised FY18 guidance downwards, on revenues, asset quality and loan growth, during 2Q18 results. Management acknowledged a potential slowdown in the economy in 2H, due to higher rates and TRY depreciation, along with an increased in funding costs due to deposit repricing in 3Q, a higher CoR assumption due to a deterioration in the macro environment and an increase in the NPL ratio. (GARAN 5.25 $22 at Z+ 398bp as of COB 26th July).  Asset quality: GARAN reported a 60bp q/q increase in the NPL ratio to 3.4% and a 90bp q/q increase in stage 2 exposures to 17%, though 60bp of which was attributable to the impact of FX. Guidance on the NPL ratio was increased from 3.0% to 4-4.5% at YE18 and the bank decided not to proceed with planned NPL sales due to unattractive market conditions. The bank also provided a granular breakdown of stage 2 exposures by IFRS 9 driven/watch loans and by sector and we discuss this in more detail below.  The cost of risk also increased, both for BAU provisioning and the update of macro parameters under IFRS 9. The net cost of risk was reported at 133bp (BAU prov. 119bp, IFRS 9: 14bp) for 2Q18, up from 109bp (BAU prov. 80bp, IFRS 9: 29bp) at 1Q18 and guidance for FY18 is even higher at 150bp.  Capital: The CET1 ratio declined by 10bp q/q to 14.0%. GARAN reduced the FX loan book by 6% q/q, a similar magnitude to AKBNK (-8% q/q), which also supported capital ratios. Negative impacts of FX depreciation (-80bp) and securities revaluation (-12bp) were offset by positive impact of market and credit risk (+16bp) and profits (+67bp). FX sensitivity remains 55bp for 10% depreciation.  Profitability: The bank reported profits of TRY1.9bn in 2Q, corresponding to an ROE of 17.7% and an ROA of 2.1%. Swap adjusted NIM increased by +18bp q/q to 403bp and the bank revised guidance on NIM downwards to being flat incl. CPI linker income, vs. excl. it previously. In addition, CPI linker income contribution is expected to double in 2H18, from TRY550mn/quarter to TRY 1.1bn/quarter, as the bank revises its CPI estimates upwards from 9.6% in 2Q18 to 19.2% for 2H18. Every 1% increase in CPI contributes TRY180mn/yr to profits and +8bp to NIM. Deposit repricing in 3Q will also contribute to higher funding costs and lower NIM.

Stage 2 exposures Garanti provided a granular breakdown of stage 2 exposures (unconsolidated basis) by currency and sector. Within stage 2, 57% of exposures are classified as under watch, restructured and past due – previously classified as group 2. The remaining 43% are classified as stage 2 due to IFRS 9 criteria where a significant increase in credit risk (SICR) has been determined. 85% of SICR exposures are not delinquent at all whereas the remaining are less than 30 days past due. By currency, 11% and 72% of SICR and watchlist exposures are in FX, respectively. The coverage ratio on SICR exposures is 3% whereas that on watchlist exposures is 16%, with the overall coverage ratio for stage 2 exposures at 9.9%. Furthermore, restructured or refinanced loans are maintained in stage 2 for a minimum of two years and even up to loan maturity in certain cases. The sector breakdown of the watchlist loans shows that 33% is Energy, 22% TMT, 11% Agriculture, 7% Consumer, and 6% Real estate.
Looking at gross loans, Energy (Generation, Distribution, Oil & Refinery) accounts for 12.2% and within this, Stage 2 accounts for 30% whereas NPLs are 3%. The coverage for stage 2 exposures in energy is 11%. Electricity generation accounts for 66% of energy exposure. 70% of electricity generation exposure is classified as performing and is largely to renewables and projects with contracted revenues. The remaining 30% is at risk and a majority of this has been classified in stage 2. The remaining 34% of energy exposure includes Electricity and gas distribution (utilities) and oil refineries. Upside risks to our Neutral rating include asset quality surprising to the upside, improvement investor sentiment towards Turkey, strong capital inflows and TRY appreciation.


PS
ci sono anche tanti corporate non solo bancari.